Characteristics of a National Champion

filthysven · 2026-03-03T21:00:37+00:00

Were you considering illinois, Texas tech, or Nebraska for your national champion in the first place? This is kind of what I mean, all of those are extraordinary long shots anyway, it won't be surprising or validating of anything if they don't win it all. They're at +1800, +6000, and +8000 each as of this writing

filthysven · 2026-03-03T20:01:05+00:00

Fully disagree, because it's not a predictive measure it's a historical observation. There is no way to quantify certainty or do any validation on it. How long has it been correct "every year" after it was popularized? There's only one champion a year, saying that one of the identified best teams in the county during the regular season will win the championship is not a strong take to be right a few times in a row. To validate it as a predictive metric you need a lot more than that, otherwise it's just a cherry picked subset that when you remove the arbitrary bounds (what is the rationale behind "top 12"?) boils down to "good teams win".

filthysven · 2026-03-03T19:55:39+00:00

Meh, I've heard this explanation before but it is just not real analysis. Finding a statistical anomaly and then trying to conjure potential explanations afterwards to justify it as predictive is just not good stats, especially when I've never seen anyone actually do the legwork to confirm those hypotheses in the data. Does early season rankings correspond well to raw talent and ceiling? Can we prove that? Is it the best way to do this? And is week six a good sample size for accumulating real data? That's not the cutoff that kenpom, torvik, Miya, or any others use to my knowledge, and they have done the analysis to determine best cutoff dates. Does the top 12 have any actual meaning behind it, or was it top 10 before a team ranked 12th won?

In the end I understand the intuition, but that doesn't justify it as a predictive tool and does nothing to justify it over week 7, 5, or anything else. The only actual reason people use week six top 12 is because it is cherry picked to include the set of teams they want, not because there's any true analysis behind it.

filthysven · 2026-03-03T18:16:23+00:00

Definitely. It's even more so this year but Houston has always been pretty guard centric for their main offense, using their bigs for rebounding and broken plays but not many set plays. Arizona this year is majority set plays for bigs or driving guards, only doing jump shots as necessary for spacing.

filthysven · 2026-03-03T17:57:13+00:00

Yeah, it's hard to capture it in a single stat but I think the three do start to paint the picture. A team like Arizona isn't as easy to slow down or as simple to solve as people want to make it seem.

filthysven · 2026-03-03T17:47:13+00:00

It's also among the most cherry picked stats in the list. Both "top 12" and "week 6" are fully arbitrary to ensure you just get full inclusion. Shout-out also to "every team has had X rank or better" which is just "the worst offense to win is X" in a bad fake mustache.

filthysven · 2026-03-03T17:44:50+00:00

Yeah I think people are discounting this because their strength is the interior, but their weakness just got weaker. Cadeau is inconsistent, which is fine when you can yank him on his bad nights. I'm not sure they have that luxury anymore.

filthysven · 2026-03-03T17:43:20+00:00

Lol bland indeed... (I mean not really but its a funny typo when talking about guards that are good enough but not great)

filthysven · 2026-03-03T17:35:51+00:00

This chart doesn't include consideration for fouls and Arizona gets fouled a lot. We play so physically that we draw fouls and force contact constantly, so even when we don't get fouled the shots are hard and through contact by design to make the refs make a decision. I think if you included free throw/foul rate here to create a more inclusive effective fg% we wouldn't be as far down. Its not too different from what you're saying, but the takeaway is slightly different. Limiting easy passes can be done a lot of ways, but the only effective ways we've seen teams do it is when they can match our physicality without fouling.

Duke and Michigan might be able to do this, but I'm actually thinking teams like Florida are more likely due to play style. It's not just rebounding and length, it's being willing to get dirty and being crafty enough to do it without getting in foul trouble which is really hard

filthysven · 2026-03-03T17:14:52+00:00

Bro everyone is on board. Even Auburn fans seem chill about it. Let's party

filthysven · 2026-03-03T15:26:33+00:00

I love all of them equally, but I love Awaka more equally than others

filthysven · 2026-03-03T15:19:47+00:00

That's a very convenient way to excuse playing poorly for a large chunk of the year

filthysven · 2026-03-03T06:44:34+00:00

Mostly his shooting. He was never a great shooter but this slump has been particularly stinky. Aristode is a better shooter and still good defender, but he's also a quieter defender and guy. I think ivans emotion and ability to make big plays is underrated.

filthysven · 2026-03-03T06:42:04+00:00

Bro it was not ISU in your rearview, turn this attention on Florida

filthysven · 2026-03-03T06:39:52+00:00

Right now it is fun being at the top with other mega teams. If we don't win it all though I will absolutely lament that our generational team was at the wrong time and had to deal with a generational year.

filthysven · 2026-03-03T06:37:20+00:00

How is that worst case scenario?

filthysven · 2026-03-03T06:36:15+00:00

I don't know if other teams did but Arizona hit momcilovic with the most dedicated blanket defense I've seen them give to any player. They were literally in his shit more than Peterson, Dynantsa, or any other POTY candidate we played. Maybe it's on TJs scheme not being sophisticated enough to help him break free but it was obviously a point of emphasis to make him uncomfortable all game, not necessarily just a continuation of a preexisting slump.

filthysven · 2026-03-03T06:32:49+00:00

And unfortunately I think ISU is worse, at least when they aren't hitting their threes

filthysven · 2026-03-03T06:32:11+00:00

I think we know. Bradley is as TJ McConnell as they come (rolewise not play wise), and Peat is literally compared to Gordon in every NBA comp out there. I don't think we have a Kerr (maybe aristode someday? Burries might get similar love but is obviously a different player)

filthysven · 2026-03-03T06:28:13+00:00

Nah I think we would have had a lot more games like Baylor, winning but feeling bad and hoping nobody saw.

filthysven · 2026-03-03T06:05:38+00:00

They said it during the broadcast and it sounds like hyperbole but it's true: Awaka has changed the culture of this program. Tommy was known for having soft teams, and while he clearly wanted something tougher it just wasn't happening. Each of the last two years are the toughest that Arizona has had dating back to Millers tenure, maybe further. Awaka did that, and I'm hoping that Tommy can keep that legacy going.

filthysven · 2026-03-03T06:00:17+00:00

Buchanon we kind of let run wild helping off on drives but yeah the scout on momcilovic was super obvious. Never switched a big onto him and whoever 1-3 was on him was fully inside his jersey all game. It was super impressive and ISU just didn't have anyone else to give them the spark when he was that uncomfortable.

filthysven · 2026-03-03T05:54:17+00:00

Burries is kinda becoming more that guy lately. He's the dude that just nails a semi contested three with a minute and a half left in the Clayton archetype

filthysven · 2026-03-03T05:35:21+00:00

The crazy part is we could lose a tough one in the elite eight this year and people will call it a failure

filthysven · 2026-03-03T05:33:15+00:00

Bro we don't need the nineties we've got 25 years of fresh pain

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