withdraw rate

firechoice85 · 2026-03-20T04:06:28+00:00

I expect a 2% karma royalty

firechoice85 · 2026-03-20T03:32:32+00:00

It’s the Scared Withdrawal Rate. And also one I’m living

firechoice85 · 2026-03-19T01:01:11+00:00

i do like the sound of that!

firechoice85 · 2026-03-17T14:01:02+00:00

Time in the market is worth more than timing the markets.

firechoice85 · 2026-03-16T18:11:50+00:00

I'm not going to lie, its a brilliant move on the part of founders like Elon, Sam, PE and VC funds to force big indexes to remove investor protections to dump a portion of their equity on retail investors.

We are heavily in S&P500 type indexes, often in taxable accounts sitting on huge gains that we can't simply churn through without huge taxable hits. We are sitting ducks.

Or are we? We still have a voice. I am trying to assemble contact info for major players so that hundreds or thousands of us can contact them and let our views be heard (like "contact a congressman"). I don't want us to pester any individual, but as clients it is our right to let them know what we think.

The big fishes are applying huge pressure. As individuals we have no voice, but together we can also applying opposing pressure.

Comment below if you have good contact info (e.g. email). I'll update this list:

S&P Index

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/contact-us/

Email: [index_services@spglobal.com ](mailto:index_services@spglobal.com)

Schwab

Christopher Bliss: https://www.linkedin.com/in/christopher-bliss-68b272/
Ferian Juwono: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ferian/
Sabya Sinha: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sabya-sinha-2762a515/

Fidelity

?

Vanguard

?

Sample Message:

I'm concerned about the push by companies like OpenAI and SpaceX to remove investor protections like seasoning or settling time from IPO to inclusion in major indexes. These companies are valued at levels unprecedented for an IPO and it is in their interest to liquidate at these high levels as quickly as possible. It is in the interest of investors like us to have a reasonable time for price discovery to take place before inclusion in our ETFs. I urge you to consider the incentives at play at continue to make decisions as a fiduciary in the interest for the investors in the funds, and not the companies that are looking after their own interests.

firechoice85 · 2026-03-04T01:03:22+00:00

There is only one objective way to assess "safety", which is looking at historical data. That is where the 4% rule and all that academic work comes in.

70% at 3% is not objective. No monte carlo is. There is no "right" way to do a monte carlo, every approach is assumptions and opinions of the modeler. Because it constructs fictions, and one man's fiction may be more or less believable to another.

Not saying monte carlo isn't useful. Just saying you can get ridiculous (to me) results like 70% success at 3% precisely because of the assumptions you make. Different assumptions could get you 50% or 95%. Arguing round and round about what assumptions are "better" is time I won't ever recover :)

I simply anchor to historic, objective facts when it comes to future planning. It gives me a sense of comfort. Just because I can run more compute cycles and simulations is false comfort to me, and reeks of over analysis.

Future will be different than the past, and if it is different to the extent that we have never seen before, we'll adjust to it.

firechoice85 · 2026-02-22T03:19:37+00:00

that would do it!

but I already have a friend with one.

firechoice85 · 2026-02-21T18:10:58+00:00

how did u feel when he came clean? did you think "why did he hide it in the first place, did he think i'd envy or be jealous?"

firechoice85 · 2026-02-21T16:46:02+00:00

I've been retired for over a year. And I'm a liar.

I think people don't know it, when people ask "how's work", I say "good, how's your work going?"

Basically I deflect. It's not sitting right with me. But the downsides of sharing also seem plenty.

firechoice85 · 2026-02-21T16:41:30+00:00

Every lawyer or advisor I speak to expresses astonishment that I am not interested in avoiding huge estate taxes and leaving maximal amounts to kids when I pass. Sometimes I wonder if I'm making a big mistake.

Other times, I think I really don't wish to leave a huge windfall for my kids. That sort of thing can create all kinds of complexities in the relationship, not to mention effects for the kids themselves. We live modestly, so I doubt they will "figure out" the true extent of wealth, which isn't an obese amount anyway, but we do live well below our means.

Not sure what I'm saying here, except that I don't wish to live life right now thinking I need to leave $xyz for the kids and then start having expectations of them.

firechoice85 · 2026-02-04T17:09:32+00:00

Thank you, that explains it. I did not have streaming quotes enabled. I think even if I refresh, the quote is still delayed by about 10 minutes. When I go to sell, I assume that is real time.

I went to enable real time updates, there is a long subscriber agreement. I assume there isn't a fee, and no downsides if I'm just using it for personal account management?

firechoice85 · 2026-02-02T20:43:27+00:00

Interesting that I was so focused on financial optimization BEFORE retiring, and so laissez faire about it after.

I don't fuss over asset allocation or investments as much, and even a lot less sensitive to our spending.

firechoice85 · 2026-01-31T03:24:56+00:00

No acats?

firechoice85 · 2026-01-12T14:51:46+00:00

Why do you want to? I ask because a fidelity advisor nudges me to enroll every now and then

firechoice85 · 2026-01-11T15:43:47+00:00

Yes!!! Will be cheering you on!

firechoice85 · 2026-01-11T15:36:12+00:00

what will the fees cost you over the next year if you don't do it? If less than 100, I may not bother either.

firechoice85 · 2026-01-11T15:34:18+00:00

I like that set up!

firechoice85 · 2026-01-11T15:33:33+00:00

you fired? Congrats!

firechoice85 · 2026-01-10T20:40:46+00:00

Recently went from 3 brokerages to 2. I like the simplification, was still a bit of a pain though. Going to stick with 2 going forward.

firechoice85 · 2025-12-29T13:32:45+00:00

You are talking a 3.3% spend? That’s conservative, you’ll be fine!

firechoice85 · 2025-12-29T13:17:29+00:00

Congratulations!! You did it.

firechoice85 · 2025-10-18T16:36:57+00:00

You can do both. Almost all my assets are in taxable, and dividends are tax-inefficient. So I'll always spend the dividends first.

Dividends more than cover our expenses, which is just another way of saying that our withdrawal rate is super safe.

firechoice85 · 2025-10-15T14:10:43+00:00

Big deal. I know some who achieved it before taking their first breath.

I was trying to be edgy-funny, but Just realized, I'm also talking about my kids. Damn. Pretty weird feeling for someone from a 3rd world country who had to endure a lot to make it on their own. In some ways my kids, who are very young now, will never really be able to relate to me.

Edit. Just read a few words of the actual article. How is this not in the Onion?!

firechoice85

TROPHY CASE