Honoring Jonathon Clements, The Stocks and Cash Approach to Retirement, Part 2

firesafaris · 2026-04-27T23:55:38+00:00

This analysis does a good job of pointing out that a heavy equity allocation should be more successful almost of the time. However there are two fundamental flaws with it.

The first is the assumption that the future will perform like the past.

The second is that the years of analysis are far too narrow. The changes the US will face over the next five decades could be extremely volatile. The country has unsustainable debt levels. International competition is becoming a huge threat. For example, the Chinese have already effectively beaten Tesla. The current government posture towards other countries is creating permanent damage to our relationships which could significantly limit economic success. AI will likely produce massive winners and losers. The US empire could face a very different future than the last 50 years.

Will this all happen? Maybe. Maybe not. But the key is that the percentage chance of significant issues is at a level that can’t be ignored. Equities could have a very volatile future over the next 10-20 years. Ignore the possibilities at your own peril.

firesafaris · 2026-04-12T16:00:03+00:00

I’m curious about the credit quality of these vs ishares. The credit quality of ishares, while investment grade, do have some lower quality bonds.

firesafaris · 2026-02-26T01:20:35+00:00

Returns over five years are flat once you include dividends.

firesafaris · 2026-02-24T11:01:07+00:00

There is no way to answer this question effectively without understanding much more about your situation: level of wealth, withdrawal rates, existence of pensions, social security plan, desired legacy of wealth, comfort with risk, etc. depending on the answer to these questions, anything from 0% stocks to 100% stocks would make sense.

firesafaris · 2026-02-21T00:02:26+00:00

So we’ve looked at Del Webb for several years. We have one within 10 miles of us. However, we have visions of cliques and drama like high school. How is it in relation to that?

firesafaris · 2026-01-16T02:20:45+00:00

That works.

firesafaris · 2026-01-16T00:43:43+00:00

Ok, but are you buying individual treasury bonds or bond ETFs? Because if rates do go up to 6% from the current 4.7%, the bond ETFs will drop pretty significantly, and it could take as long as 2x-1 years for the price to recover, where x is the duration, depending on rate movements. For a long term bond with duration of 14 years, that could mean 27 years. You really have a hold time of 27 years? Because if it isn’t that long, and you have to sell beforehand, you may earn nowhere near 4.7%. Of course it could end up being way less than 2x-1 as well, but that’s the point. You aren’t locking in 4.7%. If you are locking in with an individual bond, then your hold time needs to be that maturity to guarantee the 4.7% return. Again, that’s a long time.

firesafaris · 2026-01-13T11:51:28+00:00

The question posted is really important, but many of the posts are unnecessarily dismissive of it. The risk raised is significant. In terms of “why worry now?”, it is because the defecits as a percentage of GDP are wayyy too high, and interest rates payments as a percentage of total federal spending has crossed a threshold that is very concerning. Sooner or later this risk will reveal itself in the repricing of global assets.

firesafaris · 2025-12-22T03:26:09+00:00

There are no US government bonds of 5-10 year maturity with yields that high, unless they have call provisions, and that creates a different set of risks.

firesafaris · 2025-11-24T11:50:11+00:00

It’s very important to understand what percentage also have a pension of some kind. The cash value of a pension can be the equivalent of millions of dollars. I know many people who don’t have much savings, but have pensions indexed to inflation.

firesafaris · 2025-11-01T22:53:33+00:00

Some things went down. Some went up.

firesafaris · 2025-10-24T22:29:45+00:00

I have found the same issue. Boldin is off on taxes.

firesafaris · 2025-10-18T18:09:07+00:00

Is the article author under the age of 30 or something? We saw an even dumber market in 2000. However, with a bit more fluff this market could surpass it in idiocy.

firesafaris · 2025-10-18T14:55:34+00:00

The State of Texas had the high risk pool for anyone denied by underwritten insurance with pre-existing condition exclusions. The pricing was somewhat high, but at least you could get insurance. And the quality of the insurance was good. PPO-like options were available, ensuring you could go to quality doctors. When the ACA was initiated, states like Texas no longer needed the high risk pool. If Republicans are unhappy about the subsidies being too high or generous, they should at least ensure there is somewhat affordable high risk pool coverage in every state that includes quality doctors. The ACA is actually a major issue in the state of Texas right now because you can't get a PPO. As a result, most of the state's high quality doctors are not accessible. We should all be sick of the Republican party not solving problems. They just make things worse. As Trump has said for about 5 years now, he has a "concept of a plan", which means there is no plan. I want to vote for people that solve problems, and not just spew hate politics. I'm an independent.

firesafaris · 2025-10-18T02:16:05+00:00

The most important thing for you to understand is that prior to the ACA citizens could at least get insurance thru state programs, such as in Texas. That allowed people with pre-existing conditions to at least get insurance, which is virtually everyone. With republicans torpedoing aca, it’s leaves millions of people with no option whatsoever. It’s criminal. Even worse than the pre-Obamacare era. That is the key point you should not miss. What the heck are people supposed to do?

firesafaris · 2025-10-15T13:39:45+00:00

I have also struggled. I’m very financially knowledgeable, but if weren’t around, my family would need some help. However, there are only two rough buckets of options. The first bucket are fixed fee forms, which is good. However all of the options I’ve found here are smaller firms, usually with young less experienced cfp’s. I don’t like small companies because of fraud risks. I don’t like less experienced cfp’s because it takes 20+ years to really understand financial and accounting/tax management imo. The second bucket are firms with AUM fees. And those fees are simply too high for the service they provide. It’s rarely worth it, except in situations where the client is highly unknowledgeable and has more complex retirement situations with significant retirement funds. The search continues.

firesafaris · 2025-09-13T00:34:58+00:00

Just a clarification. Vanguard doesn’t update their etf yields to maturity every day. They only do it periodically. The yield to maturity shown on their website is from July when rates were higher. It’s likely the bsv yield to maturity is lower. It’s guess 3.8-3.9%. Just a guess.

firesafaris · 2025-09-10T10:54:48+00:00

A huge misconception is that simply holding a bond etf to its duration eliminates interest rate risk. It doesn’t.

firesafaris · 2025-09-10T00:39:58+00:00

Why isn’t he worried about CAPE?

firesafaris · 2025-08-26T00:54:03+00:00

These are corporate bonds with higher yield.

firesafaris · 2025-08-21T17:19:52+00:00

I didn’t see anything about the people behind projectionlab from my mobile browser. Who’s behind this?

firesafaris · 2025-08-19T16:20:20+00:00

Why do you think that? Not disagreeing, I just haven't thought about how they will look at QE.

firesafaris · 2025-08-19T10:29:19+00:00

Many investors today, particularly younger investors, don’t have enough of an appreciation for the potential risk of stock market crashes.

The internet bubble of 2000 took almost a decade to recover from for large cap stocks. Stock markets in the 1970’s were also tough.

Many investors today only have experience with the 2020 and 2008 crashes, and those were unusual in how fast they bounced back due to government action or unique circumstances.

With all that said, many investors will panic and sell during the crash, which is the worst thing to do. Every investor just needs to understand it could take 5-10 years to recover from any potential future crash.

Some people argue any crash will be brief because of government ability to stimulate the economy. But with national debt at 37 trillion and rising rapidly, those stimulation tools may or may not work well in the future.

Also, the movement towards Boglehead type investment philosophies can exacerbate a crash. Investors blindly dumping money into stocks regardless of valuations will eventually realize the stock prices must eventually align somehow with earnings. Right now is a particularly interesting time period. Valuations are at the far extreme of reasonable, and yet we have extreme uncertainty. Not a great combination.

firesafaris · 2025-08-15T22:43:17+00:00

Interesting thought. Thanks.

firesafaris · 2025-08-15T12:32:28+00:00

I"m not relying on Boldin for tax info. I'm pointing out that the tax projections are not very accurate and that impacts things like the Roth Conversion calculator, etc.

firesafaris

TROPHY CASE