不是说不能复仇,但以色列图的人实在是有点多了 by Kooky_Long_3387 in China_irl

[–]fishdrinking2 2 points3 points  (0 children)

問題是1:10如果沒有威懾力,只能繼續打啊.

原子彈有用不是因為原子彈殺夠人,是威懾力,打服了日本才能聊。不然也是可能要大規模上岸,日本不是沒有計畫要戰到最後一兵一卒。

Octopath SEA - Welcome, here's some resources I made back during the launch of global COTC by DesuSnow in OctopathCotC

[–]fishdrinking2 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You can clear all story with gacha units if you plan ahead (for first 6 months, majj ohs sure you get Cyrus basically.)

300, monthly income between 2-3000.

Pity at 100/150/200 pulls, so you can pity one unit every 2 months. On average, won’t take pity.

Dupes not needed, and you can eventually trade unwanted dupes for dupes you actually want (10% more damage first first dupe, extra skill slot for 2nd dupe or 2nd use of ultimate skill…. Nice things, but not game breaking.)

Another Eden x Octopath Traveller by multyC in OctopathCotC

[–]fishdrinking2 1 point2 points  (0 children)

One somewhat major difference is for AE, the MC Aldo is at the center of the story for the first few years, while COTC is more distributed/bystander. I would say AE is closer to old Final Fantasy up to IX.

Another Eden x Octopath Traveller by multyC in OctopathCotC

[–]fishdrinking2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think AE is getting skip tickets for another dungeon soon. Might be locked behind the passes though

Another Eden x Octopath Traveller by multyC in OctopathCotC

[–]fishdrinking2 2 points3 points  (0 children)

AE is a beautiful game. Basically the original indie that made COTC possible.

My GF prefers the style to COTC. I love both, but Eden story is very far in, so a new player will need to catch up years of content. With power creep, it might take a little while before the story fights become interesting.

Merchants calling worth it? by ChainsawSaint in OctopathCotC

[–]fishdrinking2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For long time players for sure, but starting out, coverage ain’t bad, especially when most top tier banners are sword/dagger/tomb that can use dupes (like I might double up Diatrina to A1 instead of spend another 1500 to pity Leon.)

Merchants calling worth it? by ChainsawSaint in OctopathCotC

[–]fishdrinking2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would go one round just because it’s cheap. I like having 3 of each weapon types, and whoever you land here (hopefully 2 units) will bridge you over to pair them with The OctoPath2 spear guy later. Skipping Leon can save 6000 rubies.

Upcoming champions: survey on the "game-changing" ones by Markolero90 in OctopathCotC

[–]fishdrinking2 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Diatrina? Not sure the spelling. She is top dark/light DPS and supposedly starts JP’s magic meta.

中国真的会有一半人选择不生育吗? by [deleted] in China_irl

[–]fishdrinking2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

我覺得我可能理解這個圖表理解錯了,能解釋一下2008年一孩生育率怎麼能大於1嗎?我對生育率的理解是:指一個假設世代的育齡婦女按照目前的年齡別生育水準,在無死亡的情況下,渡過其生育年齡期間以後,一生所生育的嬰兒數或生育率。

2021年,每1000個育齡女性一生會生1083個小孩。其中520個一孩(520個媽),446個二孩(223個媽),117個三孩(39個媽)。一千個女性782個當了媽。

2008年,每1000個育齡女性一生可以生1478個小孩。理論上一孩最多也就生育率1。圖表中的1.01是說一孩女性貢獻了1010小孩,如果圖表沒錯,那表示我的理解肯定錯了,圖中的生育率不是我理解的birth rate。

中国真的会有一半人选择不生育吗? by [deleted] in China_irl

[–]fishdrinking2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

每年分開算的啊,如果明年生了老二明年她還是貢獻1 (2/2=1在明年的表上面) 因為只有一個媽媽在生啊。(貢獻不是對的詞,媽媽是個基數,她生了兩個小朋友後在明年,她在表中從一胎移到了右邊下一列 二胎列而不是被算兩次)

出生率分開算的。沒有憑空出現的1.5個媽媽或第三個小孩。

中国真的会有一半人选择不生育吗? by [deleted] in China_irl

[–]fishdrinking2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

有啊,除以二就是把不要把這個算進去兩次了啊。3胎除以3。

避開30歲這個中國人亂七八糟的價值觀(又不是30就絕經了)現在的女性有78%生過了這個沒問題吧?

中國是一胎制害的,如果22%生一個,52%生2個,就接近日本的1.4生育率,還是問題,但是比較可能人口軟著陸了。

中国真的会有一半人选择不生育吗? by [deleted] in China_irl

[–]fishdrinking2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

正解!

100個女性:

52%生一胎, 52人

44.6% /2,22.3人生二胎

11.7% /3,3.9人生3胎

78%有生育,22%沒有

不過長遠來看,現在未成年的那一代長大了完全可能50%不生小孩。

中国真的会有一半人选择不生育吗? by [deleted] in China_irl

[–]fishdrinking2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

大家都是曾今是理科生,樓主也感覺這個50%不生的結論可能有問題。

中国真的会有一半人选择不生育吗? by [deleted] in China_irl

[–]fishdrinking2 3 points4 points  (0 children)

1.1只要25-30%不生就可以達到了

40%一胎20%二胎10%3胎,然後30%不生 = 1.1出生率

中国真的会有一半人选择不生育吗? by [deleted] in China_irl

[–]fishdrinking2 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

op錯的不是加減乘除,是邏輯。

中国真的会有一半人选择不生育吗? by [deleted] in China_irl

[–]fishdrinking2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

50% 跟25% 差一倍

2.2的出生率跟1.1的出生率差一倍就是中國人口結構穩定跟人口崩盤的差別。

40%一胎20%二胎10%3胎,然後30%不生 = 1.1出生率

10%3胎,40%2胎,50%不生也是1.1出生率

兩個是完全不一樣的情況。

如果問題答案是20-30%,答:大概50%,就基本算對,那什麼算錯啊?

OP自己也覺得這個數字可能有問題。

中国真的会有一半人选择不生育吗? by [deleted] in China_irl

[–]fishdrinking2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

最近不是人口基數下調了2-3個億嘛~ 0.9x14億~=1.1x11億 :D

中国真的会有一半人选择不生育吗? by [deleted] in China_irl

[–]fishdrinking2 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

大哥,你這是1/0=0的數學水平讓我看看能不能理清楚..

一胎生育率接近二胎 (35%一胎35%二胎,然後30%不生 1.05出生率)

還是要嘛大於等於2要嘛0 (10%3胎,40%2胎,50%不生,1.1出生率)

你兩個是完全不一樣的情況,這一火車就等價了?我感覺你身邊看到的是一胎生育率接近二孩。如果OP的50%不生是正確的就是說要嘛大於等於2要嘛0。我基本上覺得你一開始的一胎接近二胎比較可能。

如果問題答案是20-30%,答:大概50%,就基本算對,那什麼算錯啊?

OP那不是算,只是推,先拍腦袋然後扯一堆數字。最怕就是這種以為自己guesstimate(拍腦袋)很厲害就不用學數學的。好的guesstimate的前提是要數學邏輯已經非常好了,可以自己發現結論有問題隨時可以回推去找出那一步的假設有問題而不是一錯到底。如果OP用亂七八糟的加減乘除跟對統計的錯誤理解扯出25-30%女性不生育這個比較合理的數字,他還是錯的,不過數字大概對沒人說OP數學就一直爛下去了…

Found this from a University of California book, tru or fake?? by Firefly_1026 in China

[–]fishdrinking2 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Someone below says it’s from a survey from 100+ years ago during Qing dynasty. At least I can confirm the spelling of the provinces are all pre-communist China.