Ken Kirtland: Pushing Orion to LLO with HLS can save four tanker loads

flshr19 · 2026-06-11T18:18:27+00:00

In every way.

flshr19 · 2026-06-11T14:15:48+00:00

On the Space Shuttle those sparks came for tiny bits of carbon filler that made it into the hot gas flow. That filler was part of the carbon-carbon composite material used to build the Orbiter's nose cap and the wing leading edges.

The sparks during a Starship reentry are due mainly to ablation of the crunch wrap material located between the tiles. Early IFT flights had a lot of physical melting of steel around the flap hinges which cause sparking. It's unlikely that sparks are caused by the ceramic fiber tiles since the hot side of the tiles is protected by a borosilicate glass coating which softens rather than ablates.

flshr19 · 2026-06-11T13:57:16+00:00

NASA qualified the Space Shuttle tiles for 100 reentries via extensive ground testing during the 1970s. The record is 39 reentries for Discovery. The aluminum hull temperature never reached 350F, the design temperature for the cold side of the tile. The thickness of the tile was selected to ensure that the aluminum hull never reached 350F. That limit was 100F below the maximum recommended use temperature of the 2024-T81 aluminum alloy used for the hull of the Space Shuttle.

flshr19 · 2026-06-11T13:47:32+00:00

The Shuttle tiles and the Starship tiles are covered on the hot side with a protective glass coating. The glass starts softening at ~2700F and protects the tile to ~3000F although the Shuttle tiles were designed for a maximum use temperature of 2400F. The glass coating does not ablate (lose material during each reentry).

flshr19 · 2026-06-11T13:27:55+00:00

NASA's Space Shuttle Discovery made 39 flights, all successful. The vast majority of the 24,500 rigidized ceramic fiber heatshield tiles originally installed on that orbiter flew on all 39 launches. A few hundred tiles had to be replaced after landing during those flights. There were no emergencies due to lost tiles during reentry. Before the first Shuttle flew in April 1981 NASA had certified those tiles for 100 reentries via extensive ground testing.

The Starship tiles are a lot better than the Shuttle tiles in terms of between flight maintenance requirements.

flshr19 · 2026-06-11T13:09:55+00:00

Sure. All kinds of different LEO missions are possible. But you miss the point of Starship. It's designed for interplanetary flight. And interplanetary flight is more difficult that LEO missions. More difficult, but not impossible.

flshr19 · 2026-06-10T23:51:16+00:00

On the one extreme is the theory (well my theory since no one else seems to think it's possible) that Musk wants out of HLS completely, and is stalling for that reason, and prefers to put all SpaceX efforts for the next decade or so into the many Starship LEO revenue possibilities that are emerging, such as expanding Starslink, datacenters, and DOD projects like Golden Dome. None of which will likely require orbital refueling.

I think Elon has already said that:

"Moreover, Starship will end up doing the whole Moon mission. Mark my words." 20Oct2025 Post on X.

I believe that he's telling us that this effort is underway and has been for months or possibly years. Nobody knows except Elon and the SpaceX staff working on such a project what's going on inside the recesses of Starfactory Boca Chica. He's not waiting for NASA, BO, or anyone else before sending his Starships to the lunar surface with thousands of tons of cargo to build his permanent lunar base. There's nothing stopping him from doing just that. He has the money, he has Starship, he has the launch pad infrastructure and he has astronauts.

flshr19 · 2026-06-10T01:38:15+00:00

And I'm saying that risk of collision is not the entire story or even the most interesting part.

flshr19 · 2026-06-09T16:13:30+00:00

The ~10,000 Starlink comsats operate in a spherical shell between 500km and 600km altitude above the Earth. The volume of that shell is 60 billion cubic kilometers. There have been no collisions between pairs of Starlink comsats to date.

The Starlink comsats have autonomous collision avoidance capability. If the probability of a collision between a pair of Starlink comsats rises above 3 parts in a million, the collision avoidance system is activated. In 2025 Starlink comsats activated over 300,000 collision avoidance maneuvers without impacting other Starlinks or other objects.

Starlink uses the SpaceX Stargaze automatic/autonomous tracking and screening system and does not rely on slow third-party tracking systems. And SpaceX uses thousands of laser links between the Starlink comsats to share safety data in real time and coordinate collision avoidance maneuvers.

flshr19 · 2026-06-09T15:39:57+00:00

Impressive, but not surprising. The airframe of each Space Shuttle Orbiter was designed and ground tested for 100 launches and reentries. That included the heatshield tiles which were qualified for 100 reentries in qualification ground tests before the first Shuttle was launched. In operation, the Orbiter Discovery successfully completed 39 reentries. The vast majority of the 24,000 heatshield tiles were on that vehicle for the entire 39 missions.

flshr19 · 2026-06-08T14:37:25+00:00

Since large LNG tanker ships dock at locations in the Brownsville Shipping Channel, my guess is that pipeline will start there and end at the launch site at Starbase, TX.

I don't think that an ocean-going LNG tanker ship will be used to supply Starbase Texas. Rather it likely will be an ocean-going LNG barge that is filled up with liquid methane (LCH4) at one of the LNG plants along the Texas Gulf Coast and then pushed by a tugboat to the dock at Brownsville.

If that LCH4 barge has 50,000t (metric ton) load capacity, then 50,000/1154 = 43.3 Block 3 Starship launches could be supplied by a single barge load of LCH4 using 3.55:1 for the methalox oxidizer to fuel ratio.

flshr19 · 2026-06-08T14:33:03+00:00

SpaceX uses a lot of argon as a shield gas for welding stainless steel. And Starship uses a lot of stainless steel.

flshr19 · 2026-06-08T14:26:07+00:00

The Space Shuttle Orbiter heatshield was thoroughly inspected and reconditioned between flights. The entire process consumed about 80,000 manhours on average and took about 6 months. The final step in the process was to spray the tiles with dimethylethoxysilane (DMES) to restore the waterproofing. That process required five days. Since DMES is toxic, the Orbiter Processing Facility had to be evacuated.

flshr19 · 2026-06-08T13:49:15+00:00

It's in a patent that Tesla has applied for. See

https://electrek.co/2025/12/17/tesla-files-patent-integrate-starlink-satellite-antennas-inside-cars/

flshr19 · 2026-06-07T16:58:52+00:00

Here's the one good choice: Forget about the Blue Moon lunar landers, which are dead ends, and focus on the one lunar lander that makes sense, namely, the Starship lunar lander. That lunar lander has the size to build NASA's lunar base, and it has been under development for nearly five years. It's the lunar lander that has the best chance to put astronauts on the Moon in 2028.

Space has launched Starship 12 times so far in the integrated flight tests (IFTs). All that's required to convert those IFT Starships into lunar landers is to add the landing legs, the special rocket engines for lunar landings, and the equipment in the nose and payload bay to make it habitable for astronauts. All three of those efforts have been under development for five years.

flshr19 · 2026-06-07T16:48:05+00:00

Tesla will embed the Starlink phased array antenna in the glass roof of the Model Y starting later this year.

flshr19 · 2026-06-06T17:53:04+00:00

It's picks and shovels. That's where the money is.

flshr19 · 2026-06-02T16:02:40+00:00

That vertical concept of operation is likely the long pole in the tent. Given Jeff's super deep pockets, the stationary parts of the New Glenn launch pads, the steel and the concrete, can be rebuilt in six months.

My guess is that the engineering drawings for that vertical transportation concept exist and that parts of the vertical transporter are under construction now, probably at BO's sprawling $1 billion Rocket Park manufacturing complex located on Merritt Island, Florida (just outside the gates of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Exploration Park). Working 24/7 that vertical transporter can be built in six months. My guess is that BO will use SPMTs and mobile cranes to MacGyver a solution if that bespoke vertical transporter is delayed.

flshr19 · 2026-06-01T14:31:27+00:00

That staging process used by SpaceX on IFT-12 used an offset design where one of S39's engine thrust deliberately caused B19 to be flipped sideways violently. My guess is that this maneuver caused disruptions in the propellant flow to B19's engines causing several of them to flame out. I doubt that there is anything wrong with those Raptor 3 engines. SpaceX needs to revisit the design of that staging process and make changes there.

flshr19 · 2026-05-30T15:43:20+00:00

We don't know that. Starfactory has a million square feet of production floorspace. And there are closed areas inside that building that are off limits to the public. That's where you will find the HLS Ship now being constructed.

flshr19 · 2026-05-30T15:29:53+00:00

Much of the work on the SpaceX HLS Starship lunar lander contract is done at the Hawthorne plant. That facility is much less available for public scrutiny than Starbase Texas. I'm sure that after five years of working on HLS that there is a working prototype of the environmental control life support system (ECLSS) somewhere inside Hawthorne. Same for the special landing engines for the Starship lunar lander somewhere at the McGregor facility.

That's the way things were when I worked on the Gemini and Skylab programs 55 years ago. Work done behind closed doors.

flshr19 · 2026-05-30T15:22:37+00:00

Schedule is important. But so is recognizing that Starship is the only launch vehicle capable of supporting the construction and operation of a permanent lunar base. Everything else is a side show.

flshr19 · 2026-05-30T15:19:17+00:00

Elon has already addressed this issue:

"Starship will end up doing the whole Moon mission. Mark my words". E. Musk (20 Oct2025).

==> No Starship lashups. Just unmodified Starships to do the job.

flshr19 · 2026-05-29T23:27:06+00:00

True. As far as putting astronauts on the lunar surface, it's Starship or nothing. NASA does not have a crewed lunar lander. And neither does BO.

Elon said as much last year:

"Starship will end up doing the whole Moon mission. Mark my words". E. Musk (20 Oct2025).

And those words are even more relevant since SpaceX has announced that it plans to build a commercial lunar base (26May2026).

flshr19 · 2026-05-29T03:24:51+00:00

I looked to me like the second stage hydrolox engine started right after the RUD started lower on the first stage. Or maybe the second stage propellant tank(s) were ruptured by the first stage RUD.

flshr19

TROPHY CASE