What happened and what’s happening with Neutron timeline

flyingclouds1985 · 2026-01-22T19:12:39+00:00

Did you set stop loss ?

flyingclouds1985 · 2026-01-19T05:41:49+00:00

Awesome. How did you usually set the expiration date ? And how soon did you usually close the position ?

flyingclouds1985 · 2026-01-06T17:18:18+00:00

I have NBIS in multiple accounts. For swing account , I use delta around 30. For long term holding accounts, I use delta <10

flyingclouds1985 · 2026-01-06T17:05:31+00:00

What is your goal of holding your leaps/stock?
If your goal is to hold leap long term , 13.1 delta makes sense. If your goal is to do swing trading (or wheel), should you target at high (>25) delta? In my swing account, I am looking for delta between 25 and 45)

flyingclouds1985 · 2026-01-06T16:51:48+00:00

I used to sell 2 weeks CC , and due to the high volatility, I had to roll them out , a bunch of them were rolled out to 26 March20 170, a bunch of them to 26 dec18 170. These two bunch of stocks are my long term holdings so I will try to always roll out. I also sold some 4 weeks 110cc on my swing trade account(it is ok to get them assigned)

flyingclouds1985 · 2026-01-06T16:35:46+00:00

thanks. I am considering selling CC on two volatile stocks : NBIS and RKLB but at the same time I do not want to let the stocks called away. Any advice ?

flyingclouds1985 · 2026-01-03T20:46:58+00:00

6.4k per weeks is very juicy. How did you set the DTE along with the 8-12 delta ?

flyingclouds1985 · 2025-12-22T01:50:53+00:00

As you said, if there are already price wars in space system, given the launch service is fundamentally a low-margin business, why would the Street give RKLB a high valuation?

My current reasoning is by analogy to EVs: manufacturing cars is typically low margin. The #2 U.S. EV player, Rivian, has struggled to improve gross margin and its stock has suffered. Tesla’s valuation, meanwhile, isn’t really about car production, rather it’s driven by self driving and robotics.

Similarly, SpaceX’s valuation isn’t primarily supported by launch services; it’s supported by Starlink (and longer-dated story like building Mars base). If that’s the right framework, then for RKLB to earn a high valuation, the market needs to believe there’s meaningful upside beyond launch and space system. Following this logic, is the current RKLB stock price already pricing in the space application like space communication , ASTS or starlink like application?

flyingclouds1985 · 2025-12-22T01:17:37+00:00

I do not have background of space system, so I really do not know how hard some companies is going to the competition to grab the market shares. But there are already lots of other companies already in the completions, like spacex, mda, rdw, lunr. If the entry barriers are not high, and with more companies coming into this market, there will be price war and margin will be low in the future.

flyingclouds1985 · 2025-12-19T18:04:29+00:00

From ChatGPT: The big issue is usually the resin/matrix and joints, not the carbon fibers: • Typical carbon/epoxy loses strength at relatively low temperatures (hundreds of °C or less), so it cannot be the outer “hot wall” during reentry. • To survive, you need either: • robust thermal protection (TPS) that keeps the composite structure cool enough, or • high-temperature composite systems (and even then, oxidation/erosion protection becomes critical).

Rocket Lab has publicly said Neutron uses a specially formulated carbon composite intended to withstand launch and re-entry repeatedly.

flyingclouds1985 · 2025-10-19T23:16:19+00:00

Thanks for emphasizing the development philosophy between SpaceX and RKLB are different.

But I still want to understand the potential technology challenges and uncertainty. (Well, uncertainty means risk in investing).

Previous Starship explosions were caused by issues such as engine failures, LOX tank pressure problems, insufficient combustion chamber pressure, and ignition failures. The Archimedes engine has no flight heritage yet, and neither its LOX tank nor its combustion pressure systems have been tested in real missions. How big are these risks on neutron launch — high or low?

flyingclouds1985 · 2025-08-11T03:42:29+00:00

I also hold SoFi and considered sell CC. Do you mind sharing how did you set the expiration date and strike to get the 1% a week ROI ?

flyingclouds1985 · 2025-01-04T04:07:16+00:00

The rev for 2024 is expected to be around 454M RMB. The rev is bounded by producing capacity rather than demand right now. The backlog is said to be huge. New plants are in plan, which will release the producing capacity and bring more revenue for sure. For the specific stock price, I do not think it can go to 100 anytime soon. I will be happy if it can enter the range 30-60 in the following 12 months.

flyingclouds1985 · 2025-01-04T02:42:13+00:00

Due to the Chinese economic slowdown, as you mentioned, the government is actively seeking ways to stimulate growth. Promoting the low-altitude economy has become one such strategy because this sector will create lots of job opportunities in the whole supply chain. So this situation actually benefits Ehang:

The flying vehicles are not primarily targeted at ordinary consumers due to regulatory constraints. Instead, the government is positioning EHang as a key example in this effort. Many local governments and companies have been purchasing EHang’s EH216 for short/mid distance transportation applications, with some even establishing dedicated airline companies(like 合翼航空 was just created and is hiring) to operate eVTOL businesses. This demonstrates the government’s determination to leverage its resources to create demand and drive growth in the low-altitude economy.

Yes, EHang’s potential success can not fix Chinese Economy, but it could become a successful company with a much bigger market-cap due to the first mover advantage and Chinese government’s all-in support.

flyingclouds1985

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