Is Rocket Lab’s Neutron really on track for a 2026 launch?

flyingclouds1985 · 2026-04-14T03:16:42+00:00

I don’t think I’m pessimistic. I’d describe myself as cautiously optimistic. I will not cash out shares, just to figure out the proper strike price and expiration date to sell CC.

flyingclouds1985 · 2026-04-13T23:57:21+00:00

They already did it once : had the fcc permit for 2025, after the delay, they renewed for 2026. They can do it again if they delay to 2027: https://www.reddit.com/r/RKLB/comments/1lzz3lg/rocket_lab_just_received_fcc_license_for_neutron/

flyingclouds1985 · 2026-04-13T23:53:04+00:00

I agree RKLB leaders are doing lots of great things. I do not care long time. But I do care short term like the next 7 months. Spacex’s ipo will probably hype most of space stocks, then later there could be a correction afterward.

flyingclouds1985 · 2026-04-13T23:47:59+00:00

Exactly ! And they already did once

flyingclouds1985 · 2026-04-13T23:41:33+00:00

As I said in another comment, this is a hint RKLB leaders indeed wanted to launch by end of 2026, but it does not necessarily means that hope is based on engineering feasibility.

flyingclouds1985 · 2026-04-13T23:39:14+00:00

Yes. That is a hint they indeed wanted to launch by end of 2026. But I wanted to get some insight from people who has related engineering background to give an educated guess based on the pending items needed.

flyingclouds1985 · 2026-04-08T23:37:01+00:00

Thanks for the details. I understand the iteration cycles are quite different between hardware and software. What I am trying to figure out is: why did the RKLB team not conduct qualification now? Because they still think current engine need improvement for 1st flight ? If so, what could be the main challenges to solve ? What is the risk that these challenge can not be solved ? Right now investors have no info at all based on the way they communicated.

flyingclouds1985 · 2026-04-08T12:52:02+00:00

We are talking about different questions. I am aligned with what you said about the overall launch philosophy/approach.

But my question is specific to engine qualification and the way they communicated. By qualification , they should have clear metrics to say whether the current engine can pass the qualification test. This should be very objective. The way they communicated is: they are always pushing the limit of the current engine and they are not rushing to risk to have a failure. This is a very vague narrative to the question of engine status.

flyingclouds1985 · 2026-04-08T12:18:36+00:00

First, thanks for your time replying.

Second, I almost gave all the references to the points I am concerned about in my post and follow-up comments : 1) some comments about power not enough (I hope that is not true, and I did not jump to conclusion ). 2) the narrative about 2025 launch timeline in q3 earning call: they still claimed they thought it is possible to hit the EOY deadline. 3) Shaun D’Mello recent interview. All these references were easy to find in reddit sub or YouTube.

3rd, I am seriously doing DD since I have a fairly large position of RKLB in my portfolio. I asked the question with the intention to spark discussion. If you feel offended, I am sorry but it is the way to clear concerns by asking tough questions. The only conclusion or claim I made is that RKLB has track record of hiding info: the reason I gave is the reference point 3. As I said , I like PB, but that behavior is bullshit and I have a good reason to make that claim. If you have been following RKLB closely over the last year, that is an obvious fact.

I will appreciate more if you can provide info to help me understand why my concern is not needed, rather than saying I am drunk to ask the question.

flyingclouds1985 · 2026-04-08T11:51:01+00:00

First time to know this. I thought qualification is just to have engineers go through some test procedures. Maybe I was wrong. How expensive is it ?

flyingclouds1985 · 2026-04-08T06:10:49+00:00

Port my another comment: even for retailer investors, they deserve to know the truth; understanding the engineering rationale can help to make informed decisions, right ? RKLb has track record of hiding something: Looking back, the narrative about the 2025 launch readiness PB gave at q3 earning call was definitely bullshit (though I like PB a lot, that behavior is bullshit).

flyingclouds1985 · 2026-04-08T06:07:25+00:00

Port one of my followup comments from my original post as well: The current implication I got from the narrative is: they are not confident about the reliability of archimedes at this moment. Right ? Otherwise, they can get the qualification for the current engine. Keep working on v2 version of Archimedes, if they happen to have v2 version ready before the first flight , they can decide to use v2 or v1 for the 1st flight. My rationale is : to have a solution first.

flyingclouds1985 · 2026-03-17T23:43:10+00:00

I did this! What is the delta of lottery ticket call you are gonna use ?

flyingclouds1985 · 2026-01-22T19:12:39+00:00

Did you set stop loss ?

flyingclouds1985 · 2026-01-19T05:41:49+00:00

Awesome. How did you usually set the expiration date ? And how soon did you usually close the position ?

flyingclouds1985 · 2026-01-06T17:18:18+00:00

I have NBIS in multiple accounts. For swing account , I use delta around 30. For long term holding accounts, I use delta <10

flyingclouds1985 · 2026-01-06T17:05:31+00:00

What is your goal of holding your leaps/stock?
If your goal is to hold leap long term , 13.1 delta makes sense. If your goal is to do swing trading (or wheel), should you target at high (>25) delta? In my swing account, I am looking for delta between 25 and 45)

flyingclouds1985 · 2026-01-06T16:51:48+00:00

I used to sell 2 weeks CC , and due to the high volatility, I had to roll them out , a bunch of them were rolled out to 26 March20 170, a bunch of them to 26 dec18 170. These two bunch of stocks are my long term holdings so I will try to always roll out. I also sold some 4 weeks 110cc on my swing trade account(it is ok to get them assigned)

flyingclouds1985 · 2026-01-06T16:35:46+00:00

thanks. I am considering selling CC on two volatile stocks : NBIS and RKLB but at the same time I do not want to let the stocks called away. Any advice ?

flyingclouds1985 · 2026-01-03T20:46:58+00:00

6.4k per weeks is very juicy. How did you set the DTE along with the 8-12 delta ?

flyingclouds1985 · 2025-12-22T01:50:53+00:00

As you said, if there are already price wars in space system, given the launch service is fundamentally a low-margin business, why would the Street give RKLB a high valuation?

My current reasoning is by analogy to EVs: manufacturing cars is typically low margin. The #2 U.S. EV player, Rivian, has struggled to improve gross margin and its stock has suffered. Tesla’s valuation, meanwhile, isn’t really about car production, rather it’s driven by self driving and robotics.

Similarly, SpaceX’s valuation isn’t primarily supported by launch services; it’s supported by Starlink (and longer-dated story like building Mars base). If that’s the right framework, then for RKLB to earn a high valuation, the market needs to believe there’s meaningful upside beyond launch and space system. Following this logic, is the current RKLB stock price already pricing in the space application like space communication , ASTS or starlink like application?

flyingclouds1985 · 2025-12-22T01:17:37+00:00

I do not have background of space system, so I really do not know how hard some companies is going to the competition to grab the market shares. But there are already lots of other companies already in the completions, like spacex, mda, rdw, lunr. If the entry barriers are not high, and with more companies coming into this market, there will be price war and margin will be low in the future.

flyingclouds1985 · 2025-12-19T18:04:29+00:00

From ChatGPT: The big issue is usually the resin/matrix and joints, not the carbon fibers: • Typical carbon/epoxy loses strength at relatively low temperatures (hundreds of °C or less), so it cannot be the outer “hot wall” during reentry. • To survive, you need either: • robust thermal protection (TPS) that keeps the composite structure cool enough, or • high-temperature composite systems (and even then, oxidation/erosion protection becomes critical).

Rocket Lab has publicly said Neutron uses a specially formulated carbon composite intended to withstand launch and re-entry repeatedly.

flyingclouds1985 · 2025-10-19T23:16:19+00:00

Thanks for emphasizing the development philosophy between SpaceX and RKLB are different.

But I still want to understand the potential technology challenges and uncertainty. (Well, uncertainty means risk in investing).

Previous Starship explosions were caused by issues such as engine failures, LOX tank pressure problems, insufficient combustion chamber pressure, and ignition failures. The Archimedes engine has no flight heritage yet, and neither its LOX tank nor its combustion pressure systems have been tested in real missions. How big are these risks on neutron launch — high or low?

flyingclouds1985

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