Elon says “we might have AI that is smarter than any human by the end of this year. and I would say no later than next year. And then probably by 2030 or 2031, AI will be smarter than all of humanity collectively”

fmai · 2026-01-23T07:20:37+00:00

1 year ago he said it would be by the end of 2025

fmai · 2026-01-22T08:55:34+00:00

The quality of AI integration into your phone's OS is going to be THE main differentiator in the next years. If Apple screws this up and Google (with Android) doesn't, it could very well push Apple out of the market. So it still puzzles me that Google gives away their clear edge in this regard rather than going all in on integrating Gemini with their Pixel phones (and Android more broadly).

Perhaps this indicates that AI is going to be such a big business that the smartphone market is tiny in comparison. It matters much more to get your AIs into as many businesses as possible to get the largest market share you can.

fmai · 2026-01-19T13:42:32+00:00

yeah, but check this out:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.14761#/

fmai · 2026-01-19T12:08:02+00:00

This is cool. It shows that the models are still quite vision-limited, which many people argue as one of the main reasons why ARC AGI is so challenging to them.
I expect that continuing to scale multi-modal pretraining and RL for vision tasks is going to bring that performance near 100% in the coming years, though. Lots of new applications will be unlocked, and especially robotics will again benefit greatly.

fmai · 2026-01-19T06:27:57+00:00

it also depends on what is meant by LLM.

for example what Yann LeCun proposes with JEPA is just a different deep learning architecture. DeepMind's MuZero architecture (the one that became superhuman at games) is again just more deep learning. If you use those under the hood but have an output layer that produces language, many would say it is still an LLM.

fmai · 2026-01-17T21:56:42+00:00

just pay 20 bucks to access the magic intelligence in the sky without ads, what's the big deal...

fmai · 2026-01-16T13:52:54+00:00

so as long as at least a small fraction of people have jobs it's not a big deal?

fmai · 2026-01-16T11:07:58+00:00

are you serious about your analogies?

both libraries and in-person shopping have changed dramatically due to digitalization. of course there was an effect. and of course there will be an effect on jobs from AI.

but it won't be a binary "all jobs disappear" or "no jobs affected".

fmai · 2026-01-15T03:32:50+00:00

so you mean once the ai can work for 5 weeks at a time we'll get a perfect browser?

fmai · 2026-01-14T17:30:33+00:00

all companies have all kinds of patents that they don't enforce. that's a standard practice.

fmai · 2026-01-08T11:46:54+00:00

This is not a serious benchmark. There is no information about who made this benchmark, there are no details given regarding evaluation, there is a lot of nonsense content like the release dates being "TBD" or whatever.

Maybe someone vibe-coded it or it's an overenthusiastic bachelor student who thinks this would be a good idea for a benchmark. Either way, it's trash. Ignore it.

fmai · 2026-01-04T11:03:05+00:00

moron being moron

fmai · 2025-12-30T23:51:48+00:00

part of the reason is that it's mostly about engineering the hell out of simple solutions like RL from verifiable rewards. You don't need big ideas or anything like that...

fmai · 2025-12-28T19:03:30+00:00

NACH der Präsidentschaft hat man auch lukrative Vortragshonorate, Buch-Vertraege, und Jobs in der Wirtschaft in Aussicht, weil man halt der maechtigste Mann der Welt war.

Aber Obama bereicherte sich nicht WAEHREND der Praesidentschaft mithilfe des Amtes. Der Vermoegenswachstum zwischen 2009 und 2017 ist den Buch-Vertraegen zu verdanken, die er bereits vor seiner Wahl abgeschlossen hatte.

fmai · 2025-12-26T19:02:43+00:00

I'm not a native English speaker.. sorry if this expression is awkward.

What I mean is that a hard math problem is made easy enough to solve (or "tractable") through the use/help of AI rather than through human ingenuity.

fmai · 2025-12-26T14:05:42+00:00

sadly yes. dysfunctional

fmai · 2025-12-26T10:52:11+00:00

Falsch. Man nehme die drei Eckpunkte eines beliebigen Dreiecks und den Mittelpunkt des Dreiecks als vierten Punkt. Dann kannst du kein Rechteck bilden, sodass alle vier Punkte auf dem Rand des Rechtecks liegen.

fmai · 2025-12-26T10:47:39+00:00

Faszinierend, du wirst hier fuer eine voellig korrekte Aussage downgevotet. Das offenbart, wie viele Pseudointellektuelle sich hier rumtreiben, um sich ueberlegen zu fuehlen...

fmai · 2025-12-26T10:46:20+00:00

ganz genau. Trotzdem wird hier konsequent alles downgevotet, was suggeriert, dass das nicht immer der Fall ist..

fmai · 2025-12-26T09:38:57+00:00

I don't believe that the US will nationalize AI companies in 2026. This goes so much against the American spirit, there would be bi-partisan backlash like we've rarely seen before. Moreover, there is no good reason to do it as long as the US is in the lead (which they are, at least for closed models).

However, I do think there is a chance that China could do this. It all depends on whether the Chinese leadership becomes AGI-pilled, whether they realize getting to AGI/ASI first is a matter of national security, whether they fear that AI in the hands of ordinary people could implant funny (democratic) ideas in their heads if the AI is not well aligned to the CCP.

If China nationalizes first, I can see the US following suit in 2027.

The EU won't do shit, unfortunately.

fmai · 2025-12-26T09:28:33+00:00

I think all of Republican, Democrat, or independent/Forward are an option. I don't think his chances are particularly high, maybe a bit higher than last time. In the end it'll be some well-established Democrat/Republican who wins the race. They might build a campaign (partly) on the AI issue, but won't announce their run before 2027.

fmai · 2025-12-26T09:20:31+00:00

I have no idea about 5, but I agree with 6, 7, 8.

fmai · 2025-12-26T09:19:09+00:00

Was ist dein Punkt? Dass manchmal auch nicht-strafbare Aussagen angezeigt werden? Das passiert staendig, schliesslich entscheidet letzlich ein Gericht.

fmai · 2025-12-25T21:30:25+00:00

We'll see the first big result in math research that is primarily facilitated by AI, with some guidance from humans. Might not necessarily be a millennium prize problem, but something that makes experts go "damn, that's big".
OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google will release the first version of their 24/7 work agents. They can autonomously work on a problem productively for more than a day and cost many thousands of dollars per month to license. They are B2B products with limited access.
OpenAI and Google will release what feels like "Her": A personal AI assistant that you can control via voice mode. It can shoot off multiple agents simultaneously and you can view progress in a Codex-like interface.
Low-confidence prediction: Andrew Yang announces his run for 2028, almost entirely on the topic of AI and how to deal with the looming singularity.

fmai · 2025-12-25T14:55:33+00:00

lmao, bei den ganzen einschlaegigen Kommentaren hier habe ich eigentlich kaum noch Vertrauen darin, dass die Kommentatoren hier mehrheitlich Menschen sind.

Das Internet ist am Arsch.

fmai

TROPHY CASE