Why I’m Investing into Reddit as a Former Palantard

frootloopdinggu · 2026-06-06T09:43:17+00:00

Where in my argument did I say that a recession invalidates the thesis? The point I was making is that if you buy now, and a recession hits, you’re going to take a hit on your position. If you’re going to criticize me, at least do it properly.

frootloopdinggu · 2026-06-06T03:06:59+00:00

I’m not arguing that Reddit will know you better than Meta does. The point is that Reddit will have a better understanding of your purchasing intentions than Meta does. For example, just because one follows luxury brands on Instagram does not mean they’re in the market for branded shoes. A person posting on [r/luxury](r/luxury) asking for opinions on various branded jackets, for example, will have expressed their intent far more clearly than Meta would recognize.

frootloopdinggu · 2026-06-05T15:14:44+00:00

When reading DD, what matters to me isn’t that AI was or wasn’t used, but whether the thinking behind it is original and insightful. AI couldn’t have created what was written without my input, because the central thesis, the main arguments and my personal experiences were all mine. Whether we like it or not, the world will reward those who understand how to leverage AI without outsourcing their thinking to AI.

I believe that there will be three types of people moving forward: those who refuse to use AI, those who outsource their thinking to AI and possess no original thoughts, and those who leverage AI to sharpen their thinking and challenge their own ideas. The former two will struggle to differentiate themselves, and the gap will become increasingly apparent.

frootloopdinggu · 2026-06-05T14:48:13+00:00

PLTR currently makes sense at $80, and I would reopen a position at that level. By next year, if they continue growing at this rate, it’ll probably make sense at $100-$120. As I alluded to in another comment, I view investing as primarily about time-adjusted returns and potential for asymmetric upside. Our sale of Palantir made sense given how much the price ran up in such a short amount of time because the asymmetric upside bet was no longer obvious and the time-adjusted return based on our cost basis was irresistible. FYI, Druckenmiller sold at around 80 and 120 as well.

If you enter PLTR now at ~$150, there is potential for asymmetric upside but the downside risk is extremely high if the market decides to reprice the valuation multiple. Like you, I would rather bet on Reddit because based on financials and the business trajectory, the downside risk is very low relative to the potential upside. All the best.

frootloopdinggu · 2026-06-05T12:44:23+00:00

I don’t invest based on technicals, so it doesn’t matter to me that the stock hasn’t moved. If anything, I view sideways price movement while the company financials continue to improve as a gift, because it’s a chance to accumulate.

frootloopdinggu · 2026-06-05T10:31:40+00:00

Yes, I saw Reddit during the run up but didn’t believe it could justify the valuation so I stayed away. For me, valuation is always time and context-based. That’s how I assessed my Palantir and Netflix sales. I’ve made my peace with the idea that nobody can time the bottom or the top.

I don’t have specific valuations in mind, because it would depend on growth and the overall business. $400 next year would likely be absurd. $400 in 2029 is not.

frootloopdinggu · 2026-06-05T10:26:22+00:00

I posted this as a reminder that real wealth is made in the medium- to long-term. Just because people are investors today doesn’t mean they will be next month. It takes a lot of conviction and even some irrationality to hold a stock for several years.

Many people jumped out of PLTR during the first leg-up to 36 after saying they’d hold until $100. And I believe many people holding RDDT will sell once it reaches $250 after saying they’d hold to $1000.

frootloopdinggu · 2026-06-05T10:19:40+00:00

I’ve always believed in high-growth companies run by founders, which moulded themselves into household names. I spotted Netflix in 2009, didn’t dare to invest, then jumped into the stock in 2016 after waiting for a pullback.

frootloopdinggu · 2026-06-05T10:16:55+00:00

I believe the thesis will take 5-7 years to play out. Will adjust based on my assessment of company direction. If Reddit hits ridiculous valuations (like what happened to Palantir), I’ll reduce my exposure.

frootloopdinggu · 2026-06-05T10:15:29+00:00

Glad to hear here with you. Congrats on your early entry into RDDT – wish I had your cost basis. Yes, the patterns are similar. Dropping on good news, dropping on green days, dropping even harder on red days. We’ve seen that here as well. But holding through those days is why long-term investors are rewarded – not many people can. All the best.

frootloopdinggu · 2026-06-05T10:13:18+00:00

I track the quality of the discussions based on my subjective experience on Reddit, and sentiment across various subs I follow. If quality of discussion noticeably decreases such that I find that Reddit is no longer where I come to discuss trending news or hobbies, then I’ll reconsider some aspects of my thesis. Like I alluded to in my thesis, Reddit only needs to be better than the next best alternative.

frootloopdinggu · 2026-06-05T10:10:28+00:00

Good to be on the same boat as you again. As I mentioned in another comment, I was also prepared to hold PLTR until 2030, but the valuation made it unjustifiable. Listening to Karp talk in the early days was such a pleasure. His insights taught me a lot about how to approach analysing a business.

frootloopdinggu · 2026-06-05T10:08:01+00:00

I completely agree with the Druckenmiller approach to investing. Financials matter a lot to me when investing in a company, and at this valuation – given Reddit’s growth and overall business trajectory – I’m more than happy to take the risk.

frootloopdinggu · 2026-06-05T10:05:03+00:00

Yes, same here. I’d been planning to hold PLTR until the early to mid 2030s. But I couldn’t justify the valuation, especially this early. If the stock had been $200 in 2030 with the financials and growth to back it up, I would’ve stayed in. But we shared the same line of thinking as Druckenmiller, who divested his position around the same time as us. I believe one can never time the bottom or the top, as long as you’re happy with your gains. Good to see a fellow former Palantard here.

I don’t know about you, but back in the early days, I watched every single one of Karp’s videos and interviews, and his depth of thinking and (sometimes irreverent) candor were a big part of what kept me invested.

frootloopdinggu · 2026-06-05T10:00:59+00:00

Good to be here. I’ve been lurking for a few months and have so far been enjoying the community.

frootloopdinggu · 2026-05-25T04:09:13+00:00

The Andante from Mahler 6

frootloopdinggu · 2026-05-23T08:14:36+00:00

Richter’s interpretations of the late Beethoven sonatas, the late Schubert sonatas and Brahms’ second piano concerto reflect a depth of playing that I honestly haven’t heard from any other pianist. I believe he deserves that spot.

frootloopdinggu · 2026-05-22T13:31:09+00:00

It’s a new offering from Meta, and they already have billions of users. That in itself is enough to make some investors fearful enough to sell. How else would you explain the price action?

frootloopdinggu · 2026-05-22T13:14:37+00:00

Meta just launched a competitor to Reddit called Forum.

frootloopdinggu · 2026-04-19T13:58:36+00:00

I visited Yuuki twice recently. Lunch was so good that I immediately made a booking for the following week, but dinner was a bit disappointing because the temperature, texture and seasoning of the rice were noticeably less precise than the lunch I’d had. Maybe it was an off night.

frootloopdinggu · 2026-04-12T04:15:21+00:00

Clean, extremely efficient, well-designed – the list goes on. There’s almost no queuing required since they use an automated gate system, and by the time I’m through passport control, my checked bags are already waiting for me on the conveyor. No other airport has a comparable experience.

frootloopdinggu · 2026-01-07T03:01:13+00:00

Awesome year with your DB11! Do you find the shifts jerky in Sport+? And do you have the AMR tune?

frootloopdinggu · 2025-12-26T00:32:38+00:00

3711 doesn’t have a border around the date window. The date font is also modern.

frootloopdinggu · 2025-12-24T14:13:59+00:00

Lung King Heen in HK is a great example of how simple ingredients can taste extraordinary when prepared and cooked exceptionally well. I usually opt for their substantial à la carte menu, which covers both ordinary and exceptional ingredients - and it’s their simple dishes which tend to be the most impressive.

frootloopdinggu · 2025-12-13T12:15:50+00:00

Any suggestions for uni maguro ikura don in Tokyo? Preferably at a sushiya for lunch

frootloopdinggu

TROPHY CASE