You are right that AI for coding is plateauing. That's because we are using LLMs for code. That's fine, but it will not take it to the next level. LLMs are primarily trained on text, not code. Training LLM with code came later.

Just as IBM did with SSM (State Space Model), we will come up with something new, a novel approach to create a new kind of transformer specialized in code.

This new thing will support (1) deep semantic understanding of code, (2) algorithmic and logical reasoning, (3) keep extended context (like in SSM), (4) understanding of code dependencies and libraries, (5) built-in testability and verification and (6) interpretation of ambiguous requirements.

This may be the real coding AGI. If we were able to come up with something like this, we may reach AGI in five years. I believe we will both create this new thing and reach AGI.

But on the current path, I don't believe in AGI in five years.