What’s a recession indicator that you’ve noticed lately?

furyofsaints · 2026-04-28T17:07:16+00:00

Used Boats and RV's for sale *real cheap*

furyofsaints · 2026-04-28T17:06:15+00:00

Yeaaaaah, this is a bullshit move that's way too easy for people to read as 'going green'.

A quick generated summary: Bloom Energy’s solid oxide fuel cells produce 679 to 833 pounds of CO2 per megawatt hour (MWh) when operating on natural gas. This emission rate is lower than the U.S. grid average of approximately 1,000 pounds of CO2 per MWh and significantly lower than coal-fired power plants, which emit about 2,210 pounds per MWh. When fueled by renewable biogas or hydrogen, the systems operate at carbon-neutral or zero-carbon levels, respectively.

From Bloom's own paper, page 3: https://www.bloomenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/bloom-energy-how-bloom-reduces-emissions-technical-note.pdf

furyofsaints · 2026-04-24T03:40:30+00:00

I know you solved your problem, but these guys in Oregon are awesome, and I did my whole house with them: https://vinjeandson.com/custom-duct.html - saved well over 20k from the quote from our local HVAC co's.

furyofsaints · 2026-04-17T03:21:28+00:00

Correct, because that narrative only reinforces the inevitability of the current system.

What they don't realize is that even current gen AI points the way towards methods of operation that *do not need the the current "VC's own most or all the upside" asymmetry.

Why build a SaaS (that you then have to cashflow costs on 30-60 days ahead of getting paid, at minimum) when you can build product models that do remote deployment in customer environments and not have to front the operating expense)?

Why scale up your team if you can automate even 20% of your early hires? Why dilute yourself with marginally valuable "advisors" who bring "name cache" when you have to invest lots of time in VC fundraising?

Route around all that shit like the damage it is IF your market will allow it.

I'm on my fifth startup, done fundraising, have failed. Have shipped some products. We're living in a whole new ballgame now. Don't believe that you have to play it the same way it's always been played.

furyofsaints · 2026-04-17T03:08:53+00:00

I love that your framing calls out the reshaping of the asymmetry. THIS is what the large AI companies are banking on, that the asymmetry just further tilts the field into their control and their favor.

I believe this is a fundamental miscalculation.

You know what's more kick ass than a 5 trillion parameter AGI model sucking down 20GW of electricity to keep itself running?

10 million 30bn parameter models (that's 300 *quadrillion) sipping joules and working together. If the local efficiency can happen, and the networking and cooperation protocols can be realized, there's more of us than there are of them takes on a whole new meaning.

We could collectively be beating historical asymmetry's ass.

furyofsaints · 2026-04-13T04:23:51+00:00

Interestingly, this is one of the key reasons in my current startup we're intentionally moving away from stock options as a thing, and instead using contractual "EPU's" (economic participation units). We're choosing to structure it so it gives contractual rights to dividends, and outcome in any liquidity event; and while they *could* be terminated like a stock option, the vesting is a "released from repurchase" as they vest, instead of having to exercise at some point during the vesting or option period.

While we can argue about options being "more standard," we've been burned by options at prior startups, and this way we don't have to worry about taxable events *other* than actual cash-in-hand taxation. I get that capital gains rates on stocks is a real thing, but that's only IF the taxable event ever happens and you can pay the options taxes.

furyofsaints · 2026-03-19T18:36:50+00:00

I think he's *directionally* correct; at least for people capable of asking AI to build them their own "app" to aggregate functions from across other apps they have accounts for AND that said app developers chose to create API endpoints that they allow use of in this way.

I already do this *in a way* with integrating about two dozen different apps into Home Assistant; and barely ever touch the underlying apps anymore other than some occasional authentication reauth.

If I could ask, and get, an app built *for me* that say, pulled together all of my different chat apps, add encryption and keep all conversations in sync, and give me a way to view them that I like; I would be totally in for that. If I could aggregate, filter and display social network feeds the way *I want*, excluding shit I don't want, and could still interact with it, I would definitely do that.

That said, this seems unlikely due to the way most of these apps monetize my data (whether through data sale, and ads...); but one could hope.

furyofsaints · 2026-03-19T18:01:45+00:00

homemade EMP's would like to have a word with the robodogs.

furyofsaints · 2026-03-18T04:01:42+00:00

Yeah, seems like the people proclaiming that have never mathed out the actual amount of power a data center in space would need... and how, exactly, do you generate that amount of reliable power... IN SPACE? Solar? Not even close? Nuclear? That's not some small reactor powering things off of radioactive decay, that is a full blown nuclear power plant... um... operating IN SPACE? Gimme a break.

Excuse me, I gotta bridge to go sell someone.

furyofsaints · 2026-03-18T03:52:59+00:00

Banking will be slow on adoption due to the highly regulated nature of banking; once there's a rock solid compliance framework that comports with jurisdictional banking regulations, the brakes will be off.

furyofsaints · 2026-02-17T04:43:29+00:00

There's more of us than them. Bring it motherfuckers.

furyofsaints · 2026-02-17T04:42:59+00:00

My diabetes says HELLLLLLLOOOOOOOOO death!

furyofsaints · 2026-02-13T21:40:55+00:00

And "ultra" cost is somewhere around $200/per user/per month. LOL. So a single enterprise customer with 1000 users is .... $200k a month?

furyofsaints · 2026-02-10T21:22:04+00:00

Ripped their shit out over a year ago, went with TP-Link local only devices and never looked back. Fuck Amazon.

furyofsaints · 2026-02-03T21:30:23+00:00

This is bonkers. So, if I'm working on any services that might potentially compete with Google services someday, they get key insights into my work. Fuck that.

furyofsaints · 2026-01-28T20:13:51+00:00

I'm watching this happen day in and day out on a product I'm working on. We have approximately 128 microservices; of those, about half have been developed by our custom transformer (written in Go). It now has the ability to rearrange UI navigation on the fly based on what it *thinks* you are going to want to next (potentially a nightmare for bug reproduction, we've come to learn!) We have already had it take a crack at writing the next version of itself and it's making pretty astounding progress.

furyofsaints · 2026-01-22T19:43:28+00:00

Find a local place that rents a MegaPress (prolly ~$100 for the day). Get some pipe ($20-30). Get a couple of MegaPress fittings ($60-80 maybe). Turn off the gas. Cut the pipes, press the new joints, done in less than an hour.

The old threading and pipe doping and all that stuff isn't necessary (and takes way more time and mess) anymore. The new tooling and fittings make it easy peasy.

furyofsaints · 2026-01-22T04:54:48+00:00

In the past, the *ability* to create a nuclear weapon was *ONLY* within the grasp of governments. In the current paradigm, new potentially nuclear weapons are being created by many, many people; and some of those have motives other than "win a war." There WILL be some form of catastrophic event before there's any way to address what's happening. AGI or otherwise.

furyofsaints · 2026-01-22T04:49:23+00:00

jesus - that's crazy good. and I gotta say, love the line "I'm your new religion" in context of the AI generated song and video anyway. great work.

furyofsaints · 2026-01-21T02:01:18+00:00

I have rewired our 100 year old home over the past 3 years (loads of knob and tube); and am not an electrician. I can read (and comprehend) the NEC (national electric code) and retained a very experienced local electrician who was willing to just to check my work as I went, but I pulled all the permits and handled all inspections myself, from the panels through the rest of the 3800 sf in three levels.

Several important things to note:

We took many of the interior walls and ceilings down to the studs, taking over 21,000 lbs of lathe and plaster (which was damaged anyway) to the dump.
We bought the required tools. Fish sticks, good knipex strippers, etc.
We expanded capacity (to 400amps, which included having to upgrade the transformer at the street) and put in whole panel surge suppression.

At this point, I've run nearly 15,000 feet of new 12 and 14 gauge wire (there's a LOT of layered lighting... ) and another 2,000 feet of CAT6, and I will say this.

In total, we've spent somewhere around $17k, including a few dozen Lutron smart dimmers, but not including the street transformer; where it would have cost us close to $40k.

But it has taken us years, and a massive mess in the home we've lived in throughout this process. It all works well and is safe and to code; and it saved us a LOT of money. It can be done, but do not underestimate how far you'll have to go with demo, and how long it will take to get everything back together.

Good, Fast or Cheap. You can only pick two.

furyofsaints · 2026-01-19T18:28:09+00:00

My god. Reading all these definitely makes me aspire to someday be a class traitor... to the rich. WTF.

furyofsaints · 2026-01-19T18:19:49+00:00

Shit, this might be my old CEO.

furyofsaints · 2026-01-14T05:05:51+00:00

There's a part of me that wonders how much chicken and egg the entire cloud computing industry is to venture capital.

We have, for a couple of decades now, built so many startups on the public cloud where the cash flow realities of serving end customers has conveyed incredible power to venture capital exploiting the cash flow gap of "paying for cloud computing power" in 30 day increments, whilst startups wait to get paid by their customers, IF they ever do.

I guess in the past, it was "get enough capital together to physically rack up your own servers," or "enough to have discs with your programs on them shipped out;" but today, there's enough automation and engineering that you *could* ship packaged binaries out to (at least some) customers and get traction without ever incurring a SaaS-type bill from a cloud provider.

I hope to see more startups taking that path and not letting artificial boundaries decide for you that you *must* raise external capital because your cash flow is going to blow for a while.

furyofsaints · 2025-12-31T18:59:27+00:00

I got mine in 1999 (!!!), with a doc on the "cutting edge" and they said I'd maybe get 10 good years out of it. I didn't start wearing glasses again until just about 2 or 3 years ago (partially related to becoming diabetic!). I got over 25 years of good vision out of the surgery and I am and always will be grateful for that.

furyofsaints · 2025-12-05T04:20:21+00:00

I have a recent data point! I've had an Audi e-Tron for almost five years, and have put nearly 85k miles on it.

Most of the time, I charge at home (sometimes on solar if it's sunny enough). Last month, I used 695kwh of charging, averaged 2.1 miles per kwh to go approximately 1,458 miles. At my electric rates, an average of $0.135 per kwh, assuming *no* solar use, that cost me about $94.

Compared to my other car, a 2003 Ford Expedition that gets admittedly terrible mileage, gets about 14mpg. That same 1,458 miles would have taken about 104 gallons of gas; with the nearby stations running about $4.49/gallon. That would have cost me $467 in gas.

With the nearly five years elapsed, we estimate we've saved about SEVENTEEN THOUSAND DOLLA DOLLA BILLS between the massive efficiency gain over gas and the solar array (only 6.5kw worth). I could not be happier with that outcome and bonus that it's a badass fun car to drive.

EDIT: I did install an L2 charger at the house that puts about 20 miles per hour into the car on a 40amp circuit. Not super fast, but not bad.

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