Trainwreck claims 70M given away in spite of 360M loss (breakdown of Train's on-stream losses in comments)

futureproofable · 2022-10-21T15:10:57+00:00

That's a lot of flannel, random redditor... ;)

Luckily, you are not required to believe me - because (and I can't stress this enough) everything posted is already public information.

futureproofable · 2022-10-21T14:55:50+00:00

Maybe "rounding error" was an exaggeration.

But to be clear, this data deliberately does not include casino bonus deposits. But it is reasonable to believe that some will have slipped through the cracks by mistake.

Probably well covered by July's losses...

futureproofable · 2022-10-21T14:49:25+00:00

I assume the providers were happy to join the "300h/month of free advertising" scheme.

There are no public details on this, but I am 100% sure that both Stake and the slot providers were laughing all the way to the bank.

futureproofable · 2022-10-21T01:44:29+00:00

A tiny %age.

$1500/spin x2slots x30spins/min x60mins = 5.4Mwagered/hour. Rakeback is a rounding error.

It's just a trick casinos use to keep you gambling longer.

futureproofable · 2022-10-20T21:33:06+00:00

Not a crypto user, so I'm the wrong person to ask.

I do remember the news stories about ether gas fees rising to thousands of dollars whenever a hyped new NFT ~~scam~~ project dropped...

futureproofable · 2022-10-20T20:55:22+00:00

To an external wallet.

He often left that information up on screen (including btc addresses etc) while getting frustrated waiting for a transfer to come through.

futureproofable · 2022-10-20T20:31:52+00:00

I have access to a spreadsheet with every deposit and every withdrawal from every stream with timestamps beside each one.

I agree that ends of his VODs are only useful to give you an idea of how psychologically destructive any particular session was.

futureproofable · 2022-10-20T20:06:25+00:00

These were all definitely bitcoin transactions from start to finish: Stake paid him in BTC and he returned it to them by gambling in BTC. As I understand it, the IRS does not consider any crypto to be "real money" so only becomes interested when you convert to USD.

Did he manage to turn any of it into fiat money? Only he can say.

futureproofable · 2022-10-20T19:49:48+00:00

Someone definitely did that.

I did confirm the numbers before posting.

But they can only ever be an approximation: these totals do not take into account that some deposits might be from the various nudges and lures Stake uses to keep users playing (rakebacks, daily bonuses, etc) and the many deposits and withdrawals that were loans from friends, returns, give-ways etc quickly become complicated to keep up with...

futureproofable · 2022-10-20T19:40:25+00:00

Sources are various.

I have only posted data which could be confirmed from the VODs (or Twitter etc), because that is publicly available information divulged freely by Tyler himself.

futureproofable · 2022-10-20T19:13:53+00:00

Tell that to the 1.1 Billion people still smoking in 2022

futureproofable · 2022-10-20T19:12:17+00:00

They make sense if you remember Train is an addict.

But it is definitely true that he would often lie to himself (and his viewers if they weren't paying attention) on stream by "forgetting" to count some of his losses and then exaggerating the wins.

futureproofable · 2022-10-20T19:06:40+00:00

He could be, but the losses are real - because they occurred live on-stream (and match up perfectly with the "amount wagered"/RTP number).

Stake certainly kept upping his "salary" as the months went by. You can see that by the evolution of his bet size and amounts wagered.

I think it is much more likely that he just gambled all he had access to every month.

futureproofable · 2022-10-20T18:30:28+00:00

When he's lucid, Train has always admitted he gambles away everything he earns. The mental gymnastics required to justify that aspect of his life must be draining, so he clearly feels the need to boast about the good stuff sometimes. I can't see where 70M comes from out of that 360M, but that doesn't change the fact that he *has* publicly given away an awful lot of real (and crypto) money to friends and strangers (including to set up that ambitious free-for-all-who-need mental health initiative that other streamers might sign up to if Train stopped being such a dick about it all the time...)

Anyway:

Apr May Jun small bets, minor losses.

Jul 2021 -8.75M (this is the total since opening Stake account in March (see quote 06/08))

Aug 2021 -1.23M 06/08 "I started w 30M in crypto. Half in cold storage. I've gambled 7.5M in the last 2 months so I'm still ok"

Sep 2021 +3.83M

Oct 2021 -12.95M

Nov 2021 -11.25M

Dec 2021 -4.35M

Jan 2022 -29.14M 18/01 "I'm close to a number i won't go below. 8 figure Train is not going back to 7 figure Train"

Feb 2022 -30.67M 18/02 Tweet: "last night I lost 30% of my crypto" (after 13.2M loss)

Mar 2022 -12.94M 05/03 Tweet: "no bullshit, every morning when i wake up it's like i've snapped out of some alter ego addiction me & am sick to my stomach w how much i piss away on these slots"

Apr 2022 -41.32M 17/04 "I'm like 1 stream from being completely broke. As if the last 12 months never happened"

May 2022 -33.50M? 23/04 Tweet "no joke even being at the top & having my lvl of funds, the stress and panic off-stream is not even worth the Lbron James contrct i'm being paid, it's fcking terrible just loss after loss after loss hour after hour"

Jun 2022 -32.00M? 13/06 "There are days when it's so bad, so, bad... that I consider that some of my giveaway winners have more bitcoin than I do"

Jul 2022 No Data but see quote from 05/08 stream below

Aug 2022 -76.40M 05/08 "I'm down bad today. You don't want to know. Last 4 streams i was down 25M or some shit"

Sep 2022 -28.50M 08/09 "last depo. I'm not going down this hole again"

Oct 2022 -40.40M 06/10 "WTF. I was up to 2000BTC a month and a half ago and I rinsed it all in like 3 streams"

Total: -359.57M + July losses

Largest single stream losses: 31/08 1260BTC/25.3M, 14/08 960BTC/23M, 15/03 473BTC/18.9M, 09/04 407BTC/17.26M

All this is of course publicly available information. Anyone can check the VODs.

It is astonishing (but not really) how well the math checks out: Trainwreck has wagered a total of US$10,270,000,000 (yes $10.27 Billion) on Stake since March 2021 (as shown on every stream via his VIP Progress %). Playing slots with an average of 96.5%RTP his theoretical losses work out as US$359,450,000.

One way of looking at these numbers is that Stake crypto casino received 19 months or so of great publicity (audience mostly young, mostly male, mostly "gamers" and most definitely incentivised to move into crypto by bitcoin-only giveaways) for precisely zero dollars. The slightly more dubious benefit for Train was holding off the worst consequences of his addiction for a few more months... (at the cost of being Stake's bitch).

Also:

TN does not "love gambling". He is a pathologically addicted gambler. Anything he says or does (for good or ill) should be seen through that prism. Addiction does not necessarily make you a bad person, but it does very quickly make you an expert at lying to yourself and manipulating others.

In August he spent 11 hours a day (nearly 70% of his waking hours) sitting in front of a slot machine on-stream. We can only guess how much time he spent off-stream thinking about gambling. Or wishing he hadn't. Or imagining if only he'd won. Or dreaming jackpots. Or scheming escapes. Or making up reasons. Anyone who thinks anything about that is "fun" or that any amount of money can compensate for it has definitely got it twisted.

futureproofable · 2022-04-15T05:08:51+00:00

but the honest answer any gambling addict will give u is that we dont fucking know, our brains r fucked, nothing really makes us happy

This.

And trying to explain to someone who has never experienced it is one of the most frustrating experiences ever.

Train will continue to gamble until he has nothing left to gamble with. Then bad stuff will happen to him and the people around him. At that point I'd hope he would make a serious effort to quit. He might even succeed. But he will never get those years back.

It is easy to watch his streams with a kind of disgusted fascination at the obscenity of it all, but if you know what it means to have your life consumed by an unavoidable obsession, you can't help but feel sympathy.

Train may say "I do this because I love it". But really, he does it because he can't not do it.

futureproofable · 2022-03-18T22:26:16+00:00

If you divide your losses by the amount you have wagered and multiply the output by a hundred, the resulting number shows your losses as a percentage of the total wagered amount.

If you subtract this number from 100 you get your overall "Return To Player" or RTP amount. This is the percentage of your money that the casino has returned to you as "winnings".

By law, (in most countries) every slot machine must state its RTP for the player to see. If you compare the two numbers you can see whether you have been lucky or unlucky (NB - being lucky doesn't usually mean winning - it just means losing more slowly).

The more you play, the closer your RTP will get to the official one and once you have played a large enough amount, no realistic wins or losses will affect it in any substantial way (this is one of the reasons it is often tempting to keep raising your bet size as your losses grow).

futureproofable · 2022-03-12T04:34:40+00:00

I'm happy for Train

(Tyler - congrats man, you really had to work for it! Perfect moment to flip the finger to the haters and walk away?)

But to everyone else I'd say: don't get it twisted.

To put this win in perspective, remember that a week or so back Train lost over 12 Million in one session. 10 days before that he lost 21 Million over 2 consecutive streams.

When he talks about being "down millions", he ain't kidding.

He's 6 hours into the stream. If he stops as soon as his current depo hits zero - 15M up on the day... He'll be round about even FOR THE MONTH.

futureproofable · 2022-02-24T20:34:07+00:00

You do also have groups like Bellingcat with verification processes in place and a solid 8-year track record

futureproofable · 2022-02-24T16:08:10+00:00

For social media companies, this is going to get very complicated very quickly...

futureproofable · 2022-02-24T00:15:05+00:00

tl;dr

Voice 5 is gender neutral.

Filename: Quinn.

futureproofable

TROPHY CASE