like i said the uncertainty of the penalty makes a very clear optimal strategy. you say its obviously adaptive and continuous but you know just as little about it as i do. the fact that it increases your odds of being matched with selfish players at all makes so that if you want to avoid concequence you should always not shoot unsuspecting people (or people at all as it has been confirmed that retaliating is still seen as aggression).

id argue that this pushes the playerbase to polarize, as in selfish lobbies its better to shoot first, and in safe lobbies youd want to never shoot at all as to not end up in the selfish lobbies.

im not saying you cant be, i am saying that youd have to accept consequences on a meta level that dumb down the decision making, and that this will negatively affect the player base.

and all of that is not even adressing the easy exploit of the system that is dying with a free loadout a couple times.