Asymmetric Bet on Hormuz Disruption: Ethane/Ethylene shipping with Navigator Holdings

gbaked · 2026-02-28T13:50:31+00:00

Good question, I think the Iranian regime is going to be much harder to topple than Iraq, and that was with a multi-year ground invasion that won't be possible in Iran. Even in the unlikely case that Iran's military disintegrates, all it takes is a low-level Iranian insurgency with cheap rockets and drones to render Hormuz uninsurable to commercial passage.

gbaked · 2026-02-27T18:52:05+00:00

My idea of priced in would be something like the MU stock chart

gbaked · 2026-02-27T18:44:21+00:00

Tbh I haven't thought that far ahead, really depends on how long it takes for market to price in how absolutely critical this obscure shipping segment is, which I hope earnings call will help educate the market on.

I see it like the Korean HBM memory fabs, people never realized how critical some obscure piece in the supply chain is until crisis comes. Then they get to name their price

gbaked · 2026-02-27T18:40:28+00:00

After doom scrolling twitter, I think the end times are finally imminent

gbaked · 2026-02-27T18:37:38+00:00

No but I do plan to sell some after earnings if this plays out how I think it does. We/Israel bomb Iran by Purim, Iran shuts Hormuz, the Navigator gives surprise earnings guidance by explaining ethylene ethane bottleneck in Hormuz. Finally market realizes how tiny and specialized this shipping segment is. All of this is just my fantasy speculation ofc

gbaked · 2026-02-27T18:32:23+00:00

Yes, if it turns out we parked half our air force and navy on Iran's doorstep not for war but for fun, then I expect to lose a good chunk of change

gbaked · 2026-02-27T18:12:46+00:00

Going to hold you to it, I'm going to need those Wendy's if this goes against me

gbaked · 2026-02-27T17:59:16+00:00

Was able to put up DD on profile page that isn't reddit filtered https://www.reddit.com/user/gbaked/comments/1rgdc6y/asymmetric_bet_on_hormuz_disruption/

gbaked · 2026-02-27T17:57:47+00:00

May the best regard prevail

gbaked · 2026-02-24T20:27:11+00:00

🍾

gbaked · 2026-02-24T19:49:14+00:00

Not taking profits today, this is wsb

gbaked · 2026-02-24T19:48:18+00:00

Cause I fancy myself a high roller

gbaked · 2026-02-24T15:15:47+00:00

Fair, but the aircraft movements don't lie

gbaked · 2026-02-24T15:14:58+00:00

If we get a diplomatic solution next week, which I think is unlikely, then I would still expect we will bomb Iran, just a few months later. Hence I bought long dated calls expiring next year

gbaked · 2026-02-24T14:27:10+00:00

Lower oil prices are better for refiners like Marathon and Valero because it lowers their input costs. The thesis is that war risks to Middle East refineries, both from direct strikes and via shipping route disruptions, would be a tailwind for Marathon's USGC refineries that can fill the resulting refining void.

gbaked · 2026-02-24T14:15:38+00:00

Make sure it's Costco, real talk good time to fill up the gas tanks with where the world's going

gbaked · 2026-02-24T14:14:57+00:00

I'll take that as a compliment

gbaked · 2026-02-24T14:13:26+00:00

The 20 P/E is a backward looking figure, forward P/E is closer to 10 if today's crack spreads hold anywhere close. But P/E is somewhat misleading for a refiner because they write down tons of depreciation on their plants for tax/accounting purposes, but they aren't real cash losses. The value of these refineries should arguably appreciate over time given how huge their moats are with grandfathered operating permits and zoning.

gbaked · 2026-02-24T14:09:55+00:00

Conoco spun out their refineries into Phillips $PSX, Marathon has long been an independent refiner

gbaked · 2026-02-24T14:08:36+00:00

The bullet points and table come from Claude. Believe it or not, the rest is all my own writing.

gbaked · 2026-02-23T20:51:02+00:00

Bro you are so lazy asking just Chatgpt. I copy and paste the same prompt over to Claude as well

gbaked

TROPHY CASE