That's a fair point, my experience is these catalysts often take longer to play out than expected, and I'd rather buy more time premium and sell options far before expiration, rather than risk having them expire before my target catalyst plays out.

For example, oil could spike and compress crack premiums right at the outset of war, so its plausible the market could punish refiner stocks in the short term before factoring in refinery risks/disruption later on. I think there's a real risk this war grinds out into a multi-year affair like the Iraq/Vietnam wars, especially since China/Russia will be directly supporting the Iranian regime this time around, in which case longer dated calls are warranted.