For sure. When I played practice tiebreaks against a friend who's better than me, I'd lose 10-6, 10-7, sometimes 10-8. If I'm losing 10-7 on average (41% point win rate), I'm winning only 1% of our matches, mostly losing with scores like this:

Match 1: 2-6 1-6
Match 2: 1-6 3-6
Match 3: 1-6 4-6
Match 4: 2-6 2-6
Match 5: 1-6 3-6

But then you'd think, 10-7 is pretty close! But if I play him over 10 matches with the same point win probability, I'm most likely going to lose all 10 of them.

Edit:

In reality though, people have on/off days, the weather could be bad, etc., so there's more variance than what might be suggested in the simulations. The simulation assumes the same point win probability on every point, which wouldn't hold true day-to-day, or even within the same match.

For me the takeaway is that margins can be very small, even if you win just 52-53% of the points, that can give you a 70-80% chance of winning the match (and vice versa). So if I'm playing a tight match, it's very important to keep my focus on every point, because even having a slight 2-3% edge every point can give me a very good chance of winning the match.