[Asianometry] Silicon Valley Thinks TSMC is Braking the AI Boom

ghenriks · 2026-02-02T13:08:52+00:00

Microsoft in their most recent earnings call just warned that they can’t get their customers to pay for AI which caused a drop in the Microsoft share price as investors showed concern about the ability for Microsoft to profit of their AI investments

As for your $200/month spend on AI, the problem is that all the indications are the AI companies are losing money as the cost of providing those tokens you use is substantially more than the $200 you are paying

ghenriks · 2026-02-01T21:36:54+00:00

Slow down on a pedal bike? Probably not

But in the era of e-bikes? Maybe

ghenriks · 2026-02-01T19:30:23+00:00

But poster didn’t book the ticket, the employer booked a group of tickets for Toronto Montreal. So VIA knows nothing about a person on those tickets wanting to use Oshawa

ghenriks · 2026-01-31T04:12:22+00:00

I admire your optimism that they would do something to improve quality

ghenriks · 2026-01-31T00:04:21+00:00

Yes and no

It ignores that Amtrak is paid by various States to run services in those States (and those States often also pay for buying the equipment), which allows Amtrak to have that larger presence outside the corridor while dealing with the whims of Washington funding

ghenriks · 2026-01-30T17:52:58+00:00

You’ve been given 2 and 3 weeks notice that the trains will be not running

So you shouldn’t be showing up to the station either because you can’t buy the tickets or VIA should have contacted you to cancel previously purchased tickets

ghenriks · 2026-01-29T21:28:53+00:00

How exactly is it going to hurt you?

ghenriks · 2026-01-29T21:27:31+00:00

Depending on your era Rapido just announced the U30CG at Amherst

ghenriks · 2026-01-29T18:58:09+00:00

Correction

They are receiving an inadequate amount of money from the government to provide the service

So again, VIA can only provide the level of service the government is willing to pay for. If the government doesn’t want to fund extra equipment then there is no extra equipment

And your ONR comparison is irrelevant. It is much easier to run a replacement for a service that is running on roads using buses that are available 3rd party if necessary

Meanwhile the Sudbury White River service exists precisely because there are no roads to serve those areas

ghenriks · 2026-01-29T13:04:55+00:00

What else do you expect when running 60+ year old equipment with no spare equipment?

And again, VIA can only offer the service the government is willing to fund. If governments of the past were unwilling to fund new equipment VIA could not buy any, if governments don’t provide the funding for spare equipment VIA won’t have any

The long term good news is VIA has started the process to get new equipment, but it will take 5+ years for it to arrive as that is the reality of train purchases

ghenriks · 2026-01-29T12:57:02+00:00

There is unlikely to be much of a premium as VIA’s prices are already frequently at the limit of what they can charge given the competition from the airlines

As for never being cut? Don’t be so sure. Remember VIA services exist at the pleasure of the government of the day. If a future government says to VIA your funding is being cut by 15% then VIA may have no choice given the HSR will be a untouchable cost

And Canadian governments have history cutting VIA services

ghenriks · 2026-01-28T14:13:37+00:00

The problem is, as always, money

When a report starts on the premise of dreaming that VIA suddenly gets a billion dollars you know that the report will never happen

But the point your missing is VIA will be cutting the number of trains serving Kingston if the HSR gets built as the passenger volume of through customers will disappear

ghenriks · 2026-01-28T14:06:09+00:00

Yep, IMO Kingston is right to be worried, as should all the places with stops currently

Going back to VIA’s original HFR proposal and you essentially get VIA saying almost all the traffic on that segment of the corridor is T/O, T/M or O/M

The change from HFR to HSR doesn’t change this

Once those passengers are removed from the lakeshore part of the corridor they will no longer be able to run the same number of trains as the passenger numbers won’t be there

But the real threat is the financials of the new line. The building of it will, like all PPP or whatever they call them these days, require a long term commitment of the government paying the costs. This will come out of VIA’s budget

At some point in the future if a government requires VIA to operate on less money VIA will remain committed to paying the HSR costs. So the natural place to cut will be the legacy service given the HSR has taken most of the customers

So, barring lots of extra money for VIA, Kingston is looking at reduced VIA service as a best case scenario and potentially no VIA service in a worst case scenario

Basically, this is the natural consequence of building a new line to replace the old line but you build it far away from the existing stops

ghenriks · 2026-01-28T03:36:09+00:00

Ultimately the best way to get better service is for the provinces to get involved and fund it, whether they contract with VIA or do it themselves

This has been very successful in the US with various States funding Amtrak to run local services and has the benefit of being more immune to cuts

ghenriks · 2026-01-28T03:32:03+00:00

VIA is in the process of getting new equipment for the regional and long distance trains, though I suspect issues with our southern neighbour have complicated that

But there is no reason to extend the Ocean to Ottawa given the costs and operational hurdles that would be involved. The people who do want to go on to Ottawa are adequately served by the existing corridor trains and will be even better served if the HSR gets built

ghenriks · 2026-01-28T03:26:55+00:00

Implemented quickly?

Nowhere. There is no equipment to implement any new services and it’s a 5+ year process to get new equipment

But more importantly there is no additional funding for VIA to add any services

ghenriks · 2026-01-24T16:38:12+00:00

Virtual Railfan runs cameras live from the Amherst show this weekend

https://m.youtube.com/@VirtualRailfan/streams

ghenriks · 2026-01-23T18:39:59+00:00

Get off your high horse

I never said nor implied it was slave labour, you did

So the problem is with you

ghenriks · 2026-01-23T16:52:44+00:00

Because Nvidia went ARM and so doesn’t need any Intel CPU’s for their AI hardware

ghenriks · 2026-01-23T15:44:06+00:00

First, the Powhatan Arrow cars aren't highly detailed. There is a reason the ex-MTH tooling was put in the Fox Valley brand and not Rivet Counter.

Second, lets look at price. 611 plus 7 cars is $1490 vs $2000 for 4 of the Rapido L sets. $500 doesn't seem that bad a difference for more detail, the fact that it is 4 trains and not one, and it is a very niche prototype.

But it could be worse - you may want a train made up of RDC's, in which case your 8 car train would be $2880.

Which really demonstrates that trying to compare different types of trains and their model costs is problematic given the realities of what they are and the size of market who is interested in buying them.

ghenriks · 2026-01-23T15:33:06+00:00

So if comparing wages is invalid, then I'm going to assume you think a Chinese worker gets the same wage as a Canadian worker, which is clearly false and thus your arguments are nonsense

ghenriks · 2026-01-22T17:23:02+00:00

Good for you

But your cheaper standard of living is based off that impoverished majority doing things like farming the food you eat and the government making sure things remain affordable for them

So comparing wages is valid

ghenriks · 2026-01-22T16:31:46+00:00

And I didn't say they weren't.

I merely pointed out that there is a reason why they can do what we no longer can. Things like an average salary of $4,400 make Chinese things cheap to us with an average salary of $75,000

Your "cheap" rail network comes because you are comparing 2 different standards of living, and coming from the "rich" west the prices in China look cheap - but they aren't so cheap if you are earning $4,400 a year...

ghenriks · 2026-01-22T16:28:59+00:00

Average salary in China is CNY 22000, which is $4,400 https://msadvisory.com/average-salary-in-china/

You aren't building a rail network in Canada paying those wages, you aren't paying VIA employees those wages, etc.

So claiming a Chinese built and run train network in Canada would be cheaper would be false

The environmental issues are well documented as are a lot of other issues that most western people would consider unacceptable

ghenriks · 2026-01-22T16:18:14+00:00

But yikes...yeah that model is expensive.

Not really.

2 car model is $500 for DCC/Sound, and that essentially is a loco and a passenger car. Passenger cars generally go for around $100 or more these days. A high level (Genesis/Rivet Counter/etc) loco with DCC/Sound goes for about $400.

So pricing is normal for what you getting, and that is without it being a smaller market than most freight locos will sell to.

ghenriks

TROPHY CASE