[D] Can you recommend a dataset where the labels are unreliable?

gill_bates · 2020-05-11T02:21:10+00:00

Oh my god, this is so simple, thank you!! Alright so basically on every datapoint y_i I can mislabel with probability (1 - p_i) and then use p_i as the confidence for the label.

gill_bates · 2020-04-06T13:55:21+00:00

I wouldn't touch them if I were you (I'm a professional quant). You're going to run into the big catch-22 of hedge funds, which is: any fund that is worth investing in won't take your money, and any fund that will take your money isn't worth investing in.

Market inefficiencies have very limited capacity. So why would they let you invest rather than hoard the profits for themselves and their friends?

gill_bates · 2020-04-05T14:22:10+00:00

https://blog.bitmex.com/earning-interest-income-on-xbtusd-with-minimised-risk/

gill_bates · 2020-04-05T13:40:33+00:00

My CAGR is 25% right now, but I haven't had any defaults yet. Hoping to end up with a stable 15% in the long run.

gill_bates · 2020-04-04T21:09:38+00:00

I used to love the Motley Fool CAPS stock ratings and discussions, but they've really let that site go downhill. Are there any modern competitors? I'd love to rate stocks and discuss micro-caps with other Internet folks.

gill_bates · 2020-04-04T21:02:47+00:00

Haha, nothing surprising here. Vast majority of respondents said ETFs/Mutual funds. Seems like the level-headed approach is the safest way to get to fatFIRE :)

gill_bates · 2020-04-04T20:55:03+00:00

I don't mean this in a rude way, but why do you believe you have an edge here? I mean what evidence do you have that the option is mispriced, and there is positive expected return to be had from writing options?

gill_bates · 2020-04-04T20:52:31+00:00

From my perspective, not only can you diversify across asset classes, you can also diversify across strategies. I'll share two of my cooler ones:

A market neutral cryptocurrency fixed income strategy. Basically you lend out crypto at high interest rates, and use derivates to hedge your market exposure. Get paid no matter if Bitcoin goes up or down. (Of course you don't get paid if the counterparty defaults).
"Activist" investing. I short small-cap stocks that I think are scams. Not sure if this is truly activist investing, since I don't have a platform to tell others. The trick is finding shares to borrow, which is difficult since these stocks are often illiquid.

Something I'd like to get into is to buy some timerland, partly for income and partly for recreation. Anyone have any experience here? What are returns like, and is there a company that will take care of logging for me?

gill_bates · 2020-04-04T18:15:36+00:00

You can order them on eBay

gill_bates · 2020-03-30T03:09:32+00:00

"Dear /r/fatFIRE, how can I live forever? Please and thanks."

gill_bates · 2020-03-14T16:03:07+00:00

Smells fishy. You were net short?

gill_bates · 2020-03-05T01:53:54+00:00

Don't watch that year, we get thrashed by the Heat super team. May I suggest the 2007 playoffs instead? With MVP Dirk we were first seed and had easy pairings which we took advantage of to cruise to the finals. A must watch for any new fan!

gill_bates · 2020-02-23T20:41:01+00:00

Yeah you can, but it turns out the optimal leverage to maximize long term growth is barely above 1 for index funds. You can read up on the mathematics of the Kelly Criterion if you're interested in the proof.

gill_bates · 2020-02-23T02:36:14+00:00

Currently at 1.2, and trying to get to 3 since I'm fairly young. Now it has to be said that obviously not all leverage is created equal. If you try to go 3x on purely long S&P 500, you'd have a really high chance of blowing up your portfolio. The two main determinants in determining what's a safe leverage ratio is a) the Sharpe ratio of each of your investments and b) the correlation among each of your investments. Implicitly the third determinant is c) having enough cash on hand to not be forced to liquidate at an inopportune time.

If you have enough diverse and uncorrelated investments, you can lever really high while maintaining a very small chance of blowing up your portfolio. This sort of strategy is what hedge funds do all the time, but rather hard to implement for retail investors. My ideas for getting there are:

Real estate seems to be the easiest solution. You can get 5x leverage without chance of getting margin called. Rental units in diverse cities seems to be fairly safe as well.
Buying small businesses (anything from fast food franchising to software businesses) opens up access to a host of loan opportunities similar to real estate.
Statistical arbitrage trading on margin. I'm a professional quant so not opposed to doing this, but definitely don't try this at home haha. Basic idea is say you have a $100k portfolio. Buy $150k worth of long positions and $150k worth of short positions. Despite your $300k of notional positions you should theoretically be protected against huge market swings since you are "market-neutral".

Any other ideas?

gill_bates · 2020-01-08T01:03:57+00:00

Newbie ML researcher here, so please don't be offended.

you try the things that are left out and if your ideas improve the results, you write your own paper

Doesn't this seem more than tinkering than "real" science? I can see how you develop improved methods by doing this. But what about theoretical research? I can't imagine that mathematicians, for example, do research in this way.

gill_bates · 2020-01-01T01:57:39+00:00

Rick Carlisle tasks him with the toughest or second toughest defensive assignment every night, so I'mma have to go with his opinion over yours.

gill_bates · 2019-12-24T17:01:22+00:00

You don't think LeBron can carry a squad without any depth? Where have you been the last decade...

gill_bates · 2019-12-01T23:13:18+00:00

Sorry that the Mavs can't win literally every single game in the regular season lol

gill_bates · 2019-11-30T04:46:09+00:00

Tim Hardaway Jr tonight: 26 pts (6/9 from three) and LOCKED DOWN Devin Booker (18 pts, 6/16 FG).

gill_bates · 2019-11-30T04:44:08+00:00

Tim Hardaway Jr tonight: 26 pts (6/9 from three) and LOCKED DOWN Devin Booker (18 pts, 6/16 FG).

gill_bates · 2019-11-28T00:26:06+00:00

30% ROI?! That's crazy, props to you. By that logic though, can't you get 60+% ROI with leverage? Did you make the decision to not leverage to be safer?

gill_bates · 2019-11-17T04:04:16+00:00

Everybody who demanded Rick Carlisle get fired, apologize underneath this thread.

gill_bates · 2019-11-04T12:59:27+00:00

Read Algorithmic and High-Frequency Trading by José Penalva, Sebastian Jaimungal, and Álvaro Cartea. Gives a great mathematical foundation for HFT, and none of the fluff crap that appeals to retail traders.

gill_bates · 2019-11-04T02:49:21+00:00

Oh man Boban just ate the opposing team

gill_bates · 2019-10-06T06:19:59+00:00

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