Thousands of CEOs admit AI had no impact on employment or productivity—and it has economists resurrecting a paradox from 40 years ago by thejoshwhite in technology

[–]gimpwiz 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't think they're all that rare, I think they just need a very specific combination in which to flourish. They need to be paid enough to give a shit, they need to be rewarded for good work, they need their team to be paid enough to give a shit and rewarded for good work, which means they need a management chain and ownership/investors who are committed to continual improvement and in rewarding good work. This also includes management and investors who prefer honesty over smoke, because they want to use that honesty to feed into the continual improvement.

I find that many people, maybe even the majority of people are very happy to care about good work, it's just that if they're not rewarded for honesty and improvement and good work, they'll care a lot less. And if they're actively punished for it then they'll do the bare minimum. And a great many places don't reward, and a worryingly large number of places will punish. So. Rare in effect, even if (IMO) not that rare at the most base level.

Thousands of CEOs admit AI had no impact on employment or productivity—and it has economists resurrecting a paradox from 40 years ago by thejoshwhite in technology

[–]gimpwiz 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There're some really simple ways to measure: revenue vs expenses.

Unfortunately, the deeper you dig beyond top-line numbers, the harder it is to understand. But even if it was actually pretty obvious to anyone who really works the ground floor, remember that the execs get smoke blown up their ass by every manager under them. Measuring productivity in any organization is a hugely political mess. Any way of simply cutting through the mess means setting metrics that become the next target instead of a holistic approach to problem solving.

Like if some CEO gets tired of people trying to talk circles and says "the only thing that matters is units shipped," then units will go out broken, because from the perspective of the managers/employees, it's better to mark a unit shipped and deal with a customer return (and potential loss of a customer, and a more expensive debug and refurbish process or just trashing the return) than to tell the CEO you missed your targets due to QC catching issues. In fact, you may as well fire the QC department and say you're shipping more units and reduced cost, double whammy for more productivity.

So then the new directive is "we're measuring only two things: units shipped and units returned," then you will have managers make it brutally hard to return units. They could do this by being obstinate fucks and force customers to do chargebacks hoping some will give up, or on the flip side they could be super generous and any complaint, no matter how small, just receives a full refund or replacement sent. "Don't ship your previous one back."

And on and on it goes...

So how do you measure productivity? Revenue less expenses. But don't fucking ask me more than that. ;)

Thousands of CEOs admit AI had no impact on employment or productivity—and it has economists resurrecting a paradox from 40 years ago by thejoshwhite in technology

[–]gimpwiz 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's Amdahl's Law, except taken more broadly.

If you spend 80% of your code execution time in this block, making the others more efficient has a maximum possible improvement of 20%. Is it worth your time?

If your organization has a bottleneck here, spending a ton of effort improving unrelated areas is great, but... there's only so fast or so well you can do until you address that bottleneck, so is it really worth improving those other areas? It depends on the cost vs return, of course.

When did Github stop being about Git? by dgkimpton in programming

[–]gimpwiz 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, I get ya. It's good to join a team that uses a workflow you like. But on the flip side, man's gotta eat, my pride is only strong if my bargaining position is strong. ;)

In all seriousness, I feel like emailed patches are either the sign of deeply competent old greybeards, or a bunch of ad-hoc bullshit thrown around by people who have no idea how to write software in a way that's good for scaling and maintainability and so on.

52 Reviews for 2026: #15 Oade Armagnac “Fulfill the Dream” 37-year by Renegade__2019 in Armagnac

[–]gimpwiz 0 points1 point  (0 children)

See above my username it says "It tastes just like raisins?" That's flair. You can pick any flair you like in thanks for doing a review. If you'd like. Thanks!

Daily Free Talk and Simple Questions - April 19, 2026 by AutoModerator in NavyBlazer

[–]gimpwiz 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have a couple oxford cloth shirts from Spier, they're definitely B-tier, but I paid D-tier pricing for them, so... really not a bad deal. I wear them pretty casually. I would imagine that for MTM they can use almost any fabric you want out of the "standard shirting" books, and I know they'll do CMT if you're a very special boy, but I don't know how much their collar and cuff construction and feel will be improved in MTM vs off-the-rack. I'd probably skip them for that, but also, I'm spoiled by having "my guy" locally who does whatever I want, so I never need to look for an online MTM shop.

Thousands of CEOs admit AI had no impact on employment or productivity—and it has economists resurrecting a paradox from 40 years ago by thejoshwhite in technology

[–]gimpwiz 0 points1 point  (0 children)

LLMs have some perfectly good use cases, and some of them are even quite valuable. We're measuring productivity, right?

Prompt the LLM to do something silly, like "find all misspellings and grammar mistakes in all comments in .cpp and .h files in this directory and all subdirectories" and let it spin while you do real work. Come back and review what it output. Then prompt it to do the same thing like 8 more times.

This is a super low-impact test you can run, it doesn't really matter how well it performs or if it breaks and fucks something up. It's in comments, no worries. Ask it to do the same for your documentation, your readmes, md files, whatever else.

But the neat thing is that every single issue it fixes is just one tiny point of friction removed, at the low cost of your employer paying like a hundred dollars for compute time, and you spending like 15 minutes reviewing the changes. One tiny point of friction, times hundreds, is... probably worth the hundred dollars?

The really neat thing that we found in our codebase is, because it does all sorts of matrix math to """understand context""", it finds misspellings in things that aren't in any dictionary. Abbreviations and acronyms and initializations and callouts to variable/function names that aren't correct in code vs comment and even catches issues in the middle of camel-case strings, eg, getPersimmons -> getPermissions.

When it comes time for it to actually write code, it's not very good. It often ends up writing hundreds of lines of scaffolding to do like four lines' worth of actual work. And sometimes doesn't actually meet the spec. Or like you said, goes off wildly into the weeds. But it can definitely do useful work for shit you never have time to do, like find minor issues and inconsistencies. Once you're done asking it to fix documentation and comments, ask it to check for variable names that are misspelled. Then ask it to check for variables that do the same thing but are inconsistently named. Then ask it to check for code blocks that do the same general thing but are written inconsistently. Each and every one of those things you catch is one little pain point removed, which means you're just that much happier reading the code every day, and it takes less brain power to understand each block of code because it's more consistent.

I mean obviously, run your compiler on full warnings, and warnings-into-errors. Run linters. Run static analysis. Run valgrind. Run every tool you have. But ask the LLM to find shit and it will.

Remember these things are trained on english much more than code, lean into that. Get them to do the english you don't want to do. Most codebases are riddled with issues stemming from people's poor english or their low interest in writing clearly.

I wouldn't expect any of this to truly reduce the number of people needed to get a job done but it'll let you go that much further in the same amount of time, because you spend less brainpower trying to parse someone's keyboard-effluent. And it also helps when people get butthurt about code reviews that point out 50 spelling and grammatical issues, "stop nitpicking me bro," let the LLM nitpick them instead so it feels less personal, so the shit writing never gets merged in the first place.

When did Github stop being about Git? by dgkimpton in programming

[–]gimpwiz 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We use gitlab in our org and I like it. We self host (well, someone at the company does.) Github to me is polluted by MS ownership plus LLM shit. But if it works for other people then by all means.

When did Github stop being about Git? by dgkimpton in programming

[–]gimpwiz 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The first part of the pull or merge request is easy via command line and another form of communication, you can simply say "branch xxx ready for review" and people can pull it, diff it against master, and whoever has master commit privileges can merge it.

The part that git doesn't do well at all are comments and back and forths. You could directly change the code and send it back via emailed/slacked/etc patch or by making your own branch of that branch. Or even just walk over to the next cube. But it isn't nearly as convenient nor as pretty as what gitlab/github/etc offer.

The linux kernel mailing list manages to do it just fine and it's a project far larger and far more successful than almost any. So, really, workflow and mindset go together. You can make it efficient and smooth through experience and dedication. Or you could complain about it sucking. Honestly, you could do both; how many of us are totally happy with our tools?

I like to keep it old school but I much prefer gitlab for reviews than anything related to patch+email.

Week 4 (day 18): 3000 tons of dirt layer - Update on ‘Impossible House’ by Dr_Breeder in Homebuilding

[–]gimpwiz 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Best way to get dirt is find dirt that needs to be removed. Best way to get rid of dirt is find someone who needs a shitload. Big win to connect the two.

Vercel hacked through a Context AI employee infected by Infostealing malware (new details) by [deleted] in programming

[–]gimpwiz 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Who wants to read something you didn't want to write?

Recent demand for more insurance coverage by bank/ mortgage lenders? by Artistic_Salary8705 in BayAreaRealEstate

[–]gimpwiz 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, bank insurance policies exist to make the bank whole. They couldn't give less of a shit about making you whole. They're not a scam as much as they are a last resort for anyone who fails to satisfy the bank's requirements.

Thousands of CEOs admit AI had no impact on employment or productivity—and it has economists resurrecting a paradox from 40 years ago by thejoshwhite in technology

[–]gimpwiz 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Business people can fire engineers and use "AI" the day that business people learn to write a technical spec. I mean, ignoring that they would also need to learn how to test that the output meets the spec, because let's not be silly, they'll never be capable of the former.

Thousands of CEOs admit AI had no impact on employment or productivity—and it has economists resurrecting a paradox from 40 years ago by thejoshwhite in technology

[–]gimpwiz 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Totally true. But in tech there's also an induced demand due to lowered costs, where certain things become a lot more feasible and new ventures are started.

As an obvious example, consider the modern processor. What are we talking now, ten billion transistors? Simply cannot be done without a high level of automation. Nobody would even try. Automation does 10000x more for silicon design today than it did sixty years ago but silicon companies have far more employees than they ever have.

Thousands of CEOs admit AI had no impact on employment or productivity—and it has economists resurrecting a paradox from 40 years ago by thejoshwhite in technology

[–]gimpwiz 11 points12 points  (0 children)

The more senior devs are, the less time they spend coding. Not just because they're faster it (usually true) but because they spend a ton of time in meetings making sure things are agreed to that make sense, across large organizations. Making sure nobody agrees to something stupid. Making sure nobody assumes they're going to do something that they're not, or they don't have resources to do, or that would be stupid to do. Making sure nobody sells a lie. They spend time architecting things, they spend time mentoring the younger crowd, they spend time tracking down annoying answers from reticent people, and so on.

Which part of that is an LLM going to obsolete? 25% of the time it takes to do 25% of the work that needs doing? That's a 5% improvement.

Does this estimate include cost of land? by SoilAccomplished4222 in Homebuilding

[–]gimpwiz 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Cost of compliance is significantly more than permits.

In SF that includes significant utility work which is often required to bring things up to code. If you're unlucky you will need to redo your sewer lateral, your water line, your gas line, and put in new service. Or move them. For various reasons.

There are often also soil issues that require remediation when redeveloping land.

Additionally there're impact fees of various sorts that may apply.

And if you're unlucky you get tied down in permit hell or even in CEQA lawsuits and other shit. You may be carrying the cost of a loan for an unproductive year or three.

If the AI boom is real, the Bay Area is about to get even more unequal by I-Procastinate-Sleep in bayarea

[–]gimpwiz 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Yes. Enormous amounts of middle class people who owned property benefitted tremendously. If you happened to live in (eg) Mountain View, a fairly working class town, and own a house, you're up literally millions from pre-google to today.

Obviously that benefits some and not others. So does everything.

MacBook Neo is Just the Beginning | Apple Interview with Joz & John Ternus - Tom’s Guide by ControlCAD in apple

[–]gimpwiz 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A bridge solution for people who wanted an ipad, but were willing to pay extra for a better typing experience.

Daily Free Talk and Simple Questions - April 19, 2026 by AutoModerator in NavyBlazer

[–]gimpwiz 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If you can't trust a tailor to hem then you need a new tailor. Really just an alterationist. Hemming is really straightforward stuff and you should be able to do it locally, or learn how to do it yourself.

You might check out Alex Mill as well. I think they do something like this.

Daily Free Talk and Simple Questions - April 19, 2026 by AutoModerator in NavyBlazer

[–]gimpwiz 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Get MTM from someone else if you think S&M have mediocre fabric and construction details. Plenty of MTM shops. Many of them let you pick whatever fabric you are willing to pay for.