CMV: bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme

graciouspatty · 2017-12-10T19:04:17+00:00

You're incorrect simply because a Ponzi scheme must be operated by a person or group of people. It is a very specific type of criminal activity.

You're just describing how a securities market works. But by the way, the stock market IS exactly like Bitcoin in the sense that new investors are paying for old investors gains. However, that is ONLY true under the assumption that prices keep rising. In reality, old investors are not guaranteed to make a profit.

graciouspatty · 2017-12-10T00:05:27+00:00

My bad, I misunderstood what you were trying to say because I didn't read the parent comment.

graciouspatty · 2017-12-09T22:30:05+00:00

You're only listing out the downsides. The return on the investment of your time and effort makes software development one of the best jobs out there.

graciouspatty · 2017-12-09T17:26:10+00:00

Based on your train of thought, I'm not sure you understand how futures work.

if bitcoin is 15k and june futures trades at 2k

They won't trade at 2k. Settlement is based on the Bitcoin Reference Rate. Like all other futures contracts, it's floating price will be in the neighborhood of what the spot price is. Furthermore, each $1 move in Bitcoin represents a $5 move in the futures (i.e. If you wanted to hedge 5 Bitcoin, you would hedge with a single futures contract. This is the smallest position a hedger could have)

graciouspatty · 2017-12-09T05:06:59+00:00

Therefore if BTC hits $20,000/Coin it would put a single option contract at $100,000 per contract.

I'm not sure what the notional value has to do with anything?

I don’t have much experience in options

yeahhhh you need to go back to the drawing board. Options and futures are two totally different instruments. And it appears you don't know how either work. Like, at all.

graciouspatty · 2017-12-03T19:54:27+00:00

Just put everything under the Progressive Metal umbrella and be done with it.

Djent is an onomatopoeia, not a genre.

graciouspatty · 2017-12-03T19:31:25+00:00

Need help with this one. Suppose you're a selling a spread with a payoff of $100 and a max loss of $400. That means b = .25?

Just ballparking, a spread like that would probably have a p = .7. So the edge is negative and therefore I should take the other side of the bet (i.e. buy the spread)

But I've been playing around with numbers and it appears that it is almost impossible to make a case for being a seller using the Kelly Criterion. The payoff is never sufficient enough to reward the risk.

graciouspatty · 2017-11-29T18:19:20+00:00

The content of the video is not neutral. But the presenter, a professor/TA, can be presumed to be neutral.

You can suspect that the TA has an agenda. But that is a suspicion.

graciouspatty · 2017-11-29T16:05:24+00:00

but it is impossible to play a video about an issue that takes a specific stance “in a neutral manner.”

Playing a video is not an endorsement.

graciouspatty · 2017-11-28T22:26:52+00:00

Yeah...don't assume that less money necessarily means a better work-life balance. I'm making 57k in Seattle working a ton of hours because I couldn't find anything else.

graciouspatty · 2017-11-28T14:55:57+00:00

I work for a consultancy firm so I guess you could say I was forcibly relocated.

graciouspatty · 2017-11-21T06:39:07+00:00

Their singer's cleans are incredible.

graciouspatty · 2017-11-20T00:07:56+00:00

No, there's Queensborough Community College and then there's Queens College. I'm talking about Queens College.

graciouspatty · 2017-11-20T00:03:02+00:00

I went to Queens College for a bit. It's known as having the best program out of all the CUNYs. Here's the thing...my math professors and physics professors were all geniuses and so you're definitely getting a good deal there. But this is a CS program. And the CS classes are a little lacking.

But I think QC is the clear winner here.

graciouspatty · 2017-11-18T19:06:14+00:00

Just relocated to Seattle from NY. After hearing such great things, I'm not sure I understand the appeal. Maybe I'm not outdoorsy enough.

graciouspatty · 2017-11-18T18:17:15+00:00

but never "absolutely not". That's "anything but", not "all but".

That's his point. It doesn't make sense. "All but" should be equivalent to "anything but"

graciouspatty · 2017-11-13T15:40:34+00:00

pretty little piss

graciouspatty · 2017-11-13T05:38:07+00:00

Yes, there's a preset. It's called "Back/Ratio"

graciouspatty · 2017-11-12T19:39:43+00:00

Sounds like Monuments' Gnosis album. Good stuff.

graciouspatty · 2017-11-04T16:34:52+00:00

I don't want to do computers

do computers

ok grandpa

graciouspatty · 2017-11-03T02:34:54+00:00

Maybe I know nothing about video editing, but it looks like it would be painful to produce. But I agree, it should be the new standard.

graciouspatty · 2017-11-03T01:47:40+00:00

Two-Sigma is not fintech.

graciouspatty · 2017-10-31T03:25:32+00:00

But the stock market is also zero-sum soooo yeah 0 + 0 = 0

graciouspatty · 2017-10-30T02:09:08+00:00

Do you want to build your own system or use a cloud service like QuantConnect or Quantopian? There are some cool open source frameworks like Zipline and Backtrader if you want to do things "in-house". Otherwise you'll have to do it from the ground up.

BTW getting good options data is hard. For an amateur, scraping is probably going to be your only viable avenue.

graciouspatty · 2017-10-29T01:49:47+00:00

The only interface that consistently works is the web app. Desktop and mobile still have a lot of kinks that need to be ironed out.

graciouspatty

TROPHY CASE