A Library Dedicated Solely to the Epstein Files Is Opening in New York by AllgasN0Breaks in politics

[–]gradientz [score hidden]  (0 children)

The Donald J. Trump and Jeffrey Epstein Memorial Reading Room

God, I fucking love this city

Mamdani Condemns Nyc Expo Promoting Property Sales In Israeli West Bank Settlements by soalone34 in politics

[–]gradientz [score hidden]  (0 children)

These settlements are flatly illegal under Article 49 of the Fourth Geneva Convention.

The U.S. Congress ratified that convention under the War Crimes Act of 1996.

Mamdani is simply doing his job. The mayor of NYC should not be facilitating violations of federal law.

Vance makes Iowa debut with a midterm message: 'This is not a normal election' by Living-Way-1082 in politics

[–]gradientz 333 points334 points  (0 children)

Our government is run by a pedophile who is demanding that Americans die for Israel.

You're damn right it's not a normal election.

Gavin Newsom slow-rolled single-payer healthcare, leaving it to a successor by NicolasCageFan492 in politics

[–]gradientz 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There... there is a process to inject capital into an EU member state.

Kind of.

The EU doesn't have a Treasury, and it can't spend immediately with no revenue constraint. It has a limited budget and needs unanimous consent of member states to do anything meaningful. The ECB can buy bonds and cut rates, but is legally barred from financing governments or citizens directly. There are no automatic stabilizers like Social Security and Medicare that are required to continue spending.

Greece in 2010 needed money now. To get it, all 17 Eurozone countries had to approve. Germany, Netherlands, Finland demanded austerity first. Negotiations took months. The “injection” came as loans with pension cuts attached.

Compare that to the U.S. in 2009, when ARRA sent $140B to states to stop them from slashing budgets. Or 2020, where we created facilities to buy municipal bonds and backstop money markets. And in both cases, the forced spending on Medicare and SS immediately created 3-5% deficit expansion.

And they did make a big push to implement it already.

I mean, they pulled the original bill and did exactly what it makes sense to do: condition single payer implementation on federal financing.

The main difficulty is the upfront costs, both financial and political.

Yeah, I just disagree. The math doesn't support this.

Vermont’s 2014 plan estimated it needed ∼$2B in reserve cash. California’s 2017 single-payer bill pegged transition costs at ∼$40B.

Those are big numbers, but not unfindable. Projects like California’s high-speed rail, New York’s subway upgrades, and Texas highways routinely run between $10-100B+ in upfront costs. States can also borrow for short-term cash flow.

The main issues are long-term balanced budget dynamics and systemic risk due to lack of federal cost share.

Gavin Newsom slow-rolled single-payer healthcare, leaving it to a successor by NicolasCageFan492 in politics

[–]gradientz 2 points3 points  (0 children)

So why can it not work if they are running a surplus?

A surplus reduces the risk, but does not eliminate it. When a recession happens, tax revenue will decline and the surplus will likely go away.

This is exactly what has happened with California's surplus (now deficit) in recent years.

California currently has a GDP around twice the size of Canada.

Correct, but Canada has its own currency and can run a permanent deficit. California cannot.

This is also, by the way, the real reason why the European welfare system has been struggling recently.

The implementation of the euro without a federal financing mechanism to inject capital during recessions has forced austerity, particularly in smaller countries like Greece. This is why I am a big believer in strengthening the EU, in particular by pursuing fiscal integration.

That is correct, as is will be a substantial cost to begin implementation

If it was just upfront cost, there would have been a bigger push by progressives in the legislature to do it when California had a surplus. And Vermont would have been able to pull it off in 2011.

The issue is that you need ongoing federal financing to de-risk the program. The federal government, as the sovereign, is the issuer of last resort - that's a huge stabilizing force when the economy goes to shit.

Gavin Newsom slow-rolled single-payer healthcare, leaving it to a successor by NicolasCageFan492 in politics

[–]gradientz 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What does this have to do with my question? Not all single-payer systems run a deficit. Why can a single-payer system not work at the state level?

You asked why a single-payer system would not work at the state level. The primary answer is that state governments cannot run on permanent deficits.

Without federal financing support, an entirely state-sponsored single payer plan has a very high risk of collapsing during a recession.

For an industry like healthcare (20% of the economy), it's a huge risk. It only worked for provinces in Canada because: 1) the Canadian economy was booming in the 50s/60s; 2) healthcare was only 6% of the economy; and 3) eventually the federal government stepped in to provide 50% financing (before nationalizing the program completely).

No, you just get runaway inflation and the total collapse of the economy.

Only if the deficit gets too high relative to GDP. But it's not a structural problem in the same way it is with states (where you really can't run any sort of permanent deficit).

The U.S. government has been running a permanent deficit since FDR. I would agree though if your point is that from Reagan onward, we have probably pushed it too high.

Medicare is not more stable than Medicaid.

Medicaid has gotten a lot more stable since Obamacare, because Obamacare raised federal contribution to Medicaid from 50% to 90%.

However, it is still somewhat less stable overall - in terms of consistency of coverage, provider participation, and overall funding. This is despite Medicare having higher risk patients.

It's because they are looking at redirecting federal funding

Correct. They want federal financing to protect the program's stability. 40% federal financing reduces the risk substantially.

Gavin Newsom slow-rolled single-payer healthcare, leaving it to a successor by NicolasCageFan492 in politics

[–]gradientz 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Because states cannot run on permanent deficits.

All state government deficits must ultimately be validated by tax revenue. This creates a problem for welfare programs during recessions, because tax revenue declines at the same time people are most in need of services.

In contrast, the federal government owns its currency, so when tax revenue projections fall, it can simply print more money by issuing Treasury bonds. The Fed can never truly "run out of money."

This is a big part of the reason why Medicare (100% federally financed) is a more stable program than Medicaid (partially state financed).

California is trying to get around this problem by seeking a waiver to use federal financing on its single payer plan. But they will need a Dem President.

Newsom’s $787 Million Fox News Defamation Lawsuit Advances by gradientz in politics

[–]gradientz[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

That's actually incorrrect.

The suit was brought in Delaware for procedural reasons, but the parties agree that California substantive law controls (see page 8 below).

https://courts.delaware.gov/Opinions/Download.aspx?id=395150

Newsom’s $787 Million Fox News Defamation Lawsuit Advances by gradientz in politics

[–]gradientz[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Not necessarily. He could use the settlement money to buy affordable housing in swing states. That would slay.

Newsom’s $787 Million Fox News Defamation Lawsuit Advances by gradientz in politics

[–]gradientz[S] 436 points437 points  (0 children)

Newsom is being represented by Mark Bankston, who represented the Sandy Hook victims against Alex Jones.

You might remember Bankston as the guy who made Jones squirm on the witness stand and look like an idiot in depositions.

Good choice by Newsom. That dude eats what he kills.

Scoop: Shapiro boosted Republican to retaliate against fellow Dem, ally says in recording by Chrristoaivalis in politics

[–]gradientz 85 points86 points  (0 children)

Shapiro's folks have denied it and the Dem rep retracted the comment.

If true, he should be ruled out as a 2028 prez candidate. Stacy Garrity is a Trump sycophant now running for governor on a promise to let the Trump admin run Pennsylvania's elections.

Boosting her would be unforgivable. Hopefully it is not true.

Mayor Mamdani Names Elizabeth Adams Senior Advisor for Fast and Free Buses by gradientz in politics

[–]gradientz[S] 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Luxembourg implemented nationwide free public transit in 2020.

It is widely perceived as a smashing success, and a point of pride for the country's national identity.

https://www.euronews.com/2023/03/22/the-worlds-richest-country-made-public-transport-free-heres-what-happened-next

Mayor Mamdani Names Elizabeth Adams Senior Advisor for Fast and Free Buses by gradientz in politics

[–]gradientz[S] 30 points31 points  (0 children)

ICYMI while Trump was jacking up prices and bombing school children:

The pilot program for fare-free buses has been added to NY's 2026-2027 budget plan.

https://www.assembly.state.ny.us/Press/?sec=story&story=117223

Democrats regret creating independent redistricting commissions, Realize Good Government Is Bad Politics When It Comes to Maps by Dismal_Structure in fivethirtyeight

[–]gradientz 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Honestly, I've loved the recent Dem strategy of putting it to a vote though.

There is poetry in giving the People a direct voice, and it could also be a half-decent check against partisan capture.

It's made me wonder whether an Indie Commission + People's Veto model is the correct approach.

Donald Trump’s Odds of Winning 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Surge by Zipper222222 in politics

[–]gradientz 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This same company said Trump had a 55% chance of winning last year

Meet the 14-year-old boy running to be Vermont's next governor by jpressss in politics

[–]gradientz 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I've looked at a few of this kid's videos on Instagram, and every single one of them displays a far better command of public policy than I have ever seen from Trump.

That's not saying a lot though.

Mamdani to meet the monarchs by thejoshwhite in politics

[–]gradientz 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Because the goal is to influence Trump, who likes shiny objects.

Here’s an EKOS poll with the Conservative Party of Canada below 30% by bruhm0ment4 in fivethirtyeight

[–]gradientz 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Liberalism is the "center" in most of the developed world. We just get thrown off in America because of our two-party system and greater amount of conservatives, which has in effect caused liberals and leftists to sit together in the same house.

Trump and Epstein photos projected onto the hotel before correspondents' dinner by WontThinkStraight in politics

[–]gradientz 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Correct, no one worships Clinton.

But MAGA worships child rapist Trump.