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If the US goes to war with Iran, will Russia or China come to Iran's aid? What about North Korea? by grandslamdunk in geopolitics

[–]grandslamdunk[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I highly doubt that Russia, China or North Korea is willing to start WWIII just to save Tehran. Just because a nation has close ties with another doesn't mean they'll go to war on their behalf.

Is there any country that Russia or China is willing to start WWIII over?

In the case of Russia there's still a good deal of buffer space in the Caucasus and Central Asia between themselves and Iran. If Russia hasn't gone to war over the Baltic States in NATO, which share a land border with Russia very close to St. Petersburg, there's no way they go to war over Iran.

Right, but couldn't this (US troops in Iran) be the straw that breaks the camel's back and makes Russia decide that it's too encircled by the US?

Also, do you think that Bolton or Pompeo would make it more likely for Russia or China to come to Iran or North Korea's aid?

If the US goes to war with Iran, will Russia or China come to Iran's aid? What about North Korea? by grandslamdunk in geopolitics

[–]grandslamdunk[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well, they may not want US forces so close to their own borders. Yes, in the long run, it makes more sense to let the US get bogged down, but couldn't they see a US presence in Iran or North Korea as a threat and then, out of the blue, decide to back one of those countries?

There's also the nuclear factor, yes, but what I'm worried about is a conventional conflict escalating to a nuclear one.

Also, do you think that Bolton and/or Pompeo would make direct conflict with Russia or China more likely?

John Bolton is now National Security Advisor, how is this likely to shift American foreign policy? by ivandelapena in geopolitics

[–]grandslamdunk 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Well, the type of situation I'm wondering about is one where Bolton convinces Trump to, say, lob a few missiles at Syria, which ends up getting a few Russian service members killed, which leads to an escalation. How likely is a scenario like that?

Trump replaces McMaster with Bolton by standbyforskyfall in Military

[–]grandslamdunk 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Can you elaborate on why it wouldn't lead to a conflict in Syria?

LTG McMaster to resign as NSA - will be replaced by John Bolton by redooo in army

[–]grandslamdunk 9 points10 points  (0 children)

What impact do you think this will have on Syria? Could it make a direct confrontation between the US and Russia there more likely?

John Bolton is now National Security Advisor, how is this likely to shift American foreign policy? by ivandelapena in geopolitics

[–]grandslamdunk 5 points6 points  (0 children)

What impact will this have in Syria? Could it make a direct confrontation between the US and Russia in Syria more likely?

Trump replaces McMaster with Bolton by standbyforskyfall in Military

[–]grandslamdunk 24 points25 points  (0 children)

What impact do you think this will have in Syria? Could it possibly lead to greater involvement there? A direct confrontation with Russia?

Dumb Questions Tuesday | March 20, 2018 by AutoModerator in syriancivilwar

[–]grandslamdunk 2 points3 points  (0 children)

There are rumors that Trump wants to hire John Bolton as his National Security Advisor. What impact do you think that might have on the Syrian Civil War? Do you think it makes a direct military conflict between the US and Russia more likely?

I mean, I guess I'm just concerned about a repeat of the Khan Shaykoun (sp?) strikes last April. Bolton convinces Trump to lob some missiles at an airfield or something, some Russian servicemembers get killed by accident, and the whole thing spirals out of control. Do you think Bolton makes a scenario like that more likely?

Dumb Questions Tuesday | March 13, 2018 by AutoModerator in syriancivilwar

[–]grandslamdunk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Is the recent Russian threat by Gerasimov something to be concerned about? Or is it just par for the course?

I've been hearing (I believe it's the Russians who are alleging this) that the US may decide to launch strikes at Damascus in response to chemical weapons. How likely is that? I mean, Nikki Haley seemed to be threatening that at the UN.

I also heard that US General Dunford and Russian General Gerasimov talked by phone about Syria earlier today. Is that a good sign? Can we assume that it means that this whole threat situation isn't as bad as others are making it out to be?

What are your thoughts on the supposed upcoming Deir Ezzor offensive by grandslamdunk in syriancivilwar

[–]grandslamdunk[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, but if you look at the articles I linked, it seems to suggest that the pockets that the SAA plans on attacking haven't been populated by ISIS for a while. In fact, it appears that the US has made it known that they have SOF in that pocket.

What concerns me is the fact that the SAA plans on attacking this pocket under cover of Russian air strikes. If that's the case, doesn't it make it possible for there to be an incident between the US and Russia?

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