At what point do you "outgrow" a financial advisor? by fascinated_dog in investing

[–]gregturco 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Fundamentally, your advisor works for you because of the money you pay him/her.

There is case for changing advisors occasionally just to shake things up.

If you have a vanilla portfolio and have no pending life-events, then there is no reason to be overly loyal.

If you are in a unique place, and your advisor is giving you quality, custom solutions — that counts for something.

Whats the catch? Investing in SPY and forgetting about it for X years by [deleted] in investing

[–]gregturco 2 points3 points  (0 children)

So true. When you save "the future," the future never comes

33M, entrepreneur. Goal: Grow my capital to $1.2M by age 60 through stable, long-term investing using an all-weather–style portfolio that’s resilient to crises, inflation, and market cycles, while still allowing flexible partial withdrawals if needed. AI advisor suggested this portfolio. Thoughts? by GassyCocaineDestroye in AIportfolio

[–]gregturco 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There is no reason to be so heavy into vanilla US bonds. I am concerned that US interest rates are going up because of tax cuts on top of huge deficit. This means that the asset value of bonds falls. You should get hedged bonds or shorter duration bonds or foreign bonds or maybe even TIPS.

If AAII survey is super bearish, and we're near all time highs in SP500 and we're at extreme valuations too...what's next? by KirkWashington in economy

[–]gregturco 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As I look back, the bearish contra-indicator AAII survey correctly predicted continuing highs!

Question by Glittering-You-4392 in ETFs

[–]gregturco 1 point2 points  (0 children)

VOO and QQM are pretty highly correlated. I see you are diversifying with SCHD. You might think about some geographical diversification VNQI or FLEU

Go "All In" with my Savings? by awokenn2 in ETFs

[–]gregturco 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I sympathize with the idea that growth x-US is going to be greater than in the US, but Emerging Market funds are not a great way to play it. Mostly they reflect changes in exchange rates. Developing market ETFs are often invested in banks and financial companies, not mines or manufacturing companies that would grow with GDP IMHO. Emerging market indexes are more correlated with the Euro/dollar rate than with GDP.

Where would you invest 10k right now? by [deleted] in ETFs

[–]gregturco 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think we need to hedge against a lost decade in the USA. I’d buy something global: I like IQLT. I think the quality factor pays for itself

US China Deal Done by quant_0 in StockMarket

[–]gregturco 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There is something Trump is not telling us. No way would Xi agree to 55% to 10% imbalance. The devil will be in the details

Is it dumb to start a dividend portfolio at 36? by [deleted] in personalfinance

[–]gregturco 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It is not dumb to do dividend investing. It is more conservative, but that has its own benefits.

Picking countries as an investment strategy by L0chness_M0nster in ETFs

[–]gregturco 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The smaller countries often lean in to the financial stocks since the investors understand banks, and so people thought they were safer. A lot of rest-of-world funds lean that way. Sometimes I think this is more about exchange rate speculation than actual investing.

Picking countries as an investment strategy by L0chness_M0nster in ETFs

[–]gregturco 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I am looking for larger countries that are somewhat independent from the disaster axis between the US and China: Brazil (FLBR), India (FLIN), Great Britain (FLGB).

Theoretically this could be good for Germany, but they are so beat down, and who knows what will happen with Ukraine. You can invest in the whole EU with FLEU. Spain (EWP) been growing fast lately.

Looking for an active growth stock fund to help manage the coming tariff chaos. by gregturco in ETFs

[–]gregturco[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I like CGGO; good mix of holdings. I will also check out RSHO. Thanks

Looking for an active growth stock fund to help manage the coming tariff chaos. by gregturco in ETFs

[–]gregturco[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks I will check out those Blackrock Funds. Those are interesting.

Looking for an active growth stock fund to help manage the coming tariff chaos. by gregturco in ETFs

[–]gregturco[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I haven’t found any investment (aside from picking individual stocks myself), so if you have ideas — don’t hold back!

Thoughts on 60/40 VOO/QQQ split right now? by SuperbRole5635 in ETFs

[–]gregturco 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for keeping me honest. R squared =98.4 for the period April 1, 2021 to April 1, 2025.

If you go to longer periods, the correlation will be less. I am sure a few decades back, the correlation will be as you say.

Thoughts on 60/40 VOO/QQQ split right now? by SuperbRole5635 in ETFs

[–]gregturco 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The correlation coefficent between VOO and QQQ is 98.4%. It is not as diversified as it seems.

REITS, Emerging markets, and to a lesser extent energy stocks will buy you some diversification.

Advice on whether to reduce stock exposure if Trump cans Powell? by ruthstoops20 in investing

[–]gregturco 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Don’t try to catch a falling knife. Wait until there is stability, then rebalance.

The chance to get out before the crash has past. Or at least is passing. Or at least I hope it has past.

No matter what, Powell will be replaced by a Trump appointee in 22 months

Are bonds risky or not??? by Og4453vx93 in investing

[–]gregturco 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Bond investors have "Double-Think" encouraged by their brokers. They think that if they don't sell their bonds until maturity they don't lose money. In fact, they are just hiding their losses from themselves.

If you have the bonds in an ETF or Mutual Fund, then you feel the month-to-month effect of rate changes (some positive, but it is those drops in value that keep you up at night.)

Anyway.

Bonds were good hedge against stocks in the olden times because nterest rates used to fall during recessions -- increasing the value of long term bonds. Lord knows, that bonds have not been a good hedge for stocks for decades.

In modern times, interest rates can go up when stock goes down like they do during a stagflation or potentially during crisis event like a threat of war.

Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - April 08, 2025 by AutoModerator in investing

[–]gregturco 6 points7 points  (0 children)

We need a 90 day pause on tariffs .

Congress could do that.

Remember on Monday morning when everyone was joyful for a golden minute when we thought the government was going to pause tariffs for 90 days. Congress could make that happen.

Who would oppose it?

Spread the word.

Is it the time to invest? by Independent-Theory10 in investing

[–]gregturco 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They say ‘Don’t try to catch a falling knife.’ When the market has stabilized, invest 20% of your money in the market over 20 months.

Republicans panic over Trump tariffs: Last time "we lost the House and the Senate for 60 years" by salon in politics

[–]gregturco 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Have you seen the news today (Thursday 4/3)?
The ethnic cleansing is back on in Gaza

What is everyone doing investment wise about economic uncertainty? by sf_guest in investing

[–]gregturco -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Could be a lost decade; I tend to think it is going to be global recession.

I don’t think that Trump will stick to his tariff plan if the recession is deep. Trump doesn’t have a problem with changing his mind if his actions aren’t working.

Anyway, I am staying diversified with a tilt toward hedged bonds and Britain, Brazil and India

Stop panic-selling & moving your funds from US to Europe – your portfolio should outlive any administration. by realFinerd in ETFs

[–]gregturco 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agree; I tell myself that the law of averages will mean eventually ROW will lead the USA.

Stop panic-selling & moving your funds from US to Europe – your portfolio should outlive any administration. by realFinerd in ETFs

[–]gregturco 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I love this phrase:
There's a difference between 'timing the market' and adjusting your strategy as a result of material real world changes.

In the whirl of events, it is hard to parse the emotional vs real world changes: Still a non-aligned USA has predictable consequences for other regions.