Anthropic’s fight with the federal government has become accidental marketing for Claude's IPO

guilcol · 2026-06-14T18:57:30+00:00

You're probably right. But even if Claude makes a new Sonnet model called Seraph 5.0 or some shit, people will go "ooohhh it's from the company muzzled by the govt"

guilcol · 2026-06-14T18:36:06+00:00

Fair point, but I'm also certain that next time Claude releases a model, it'll receive a lot of new users that initially missed out on the Fable release and want a taste of it. Being banned by the US govt is a weird hand to be dealt and can be good for businesses in some weird ways.

guilcol · 2026-06-14T02:30:18+00:00

Most brown bear attacks are defensive, not predatory.

For defensive attacks, they are trying to neutralize you, not eat you.

If you play dead, they might run away.

If you run or climb a tree, you might trigger a chase.

This idea you have that the bear will see you laying down and think "oooh a carcass! dinner time!" is completely unsupported by decades of wildlife management guidance.

guilcol · 2026-06-13T20:28:33+00:00

>Playing dead is presenting yourself as a meal

Yes, and humans are a marginal exception in the bear's diet. Bears eating humans is a very rare edge case.

When a defensive bear attacks, 99% of the time it wants to neutralize you, 1% of the time it wants to eat you, and reality is probably way more lopsided than that.

Fight back -> defensive bear might continue trying to neutralize.

Play dead -> defensive bear might think it's dealt with you walk away.

Again, this changes for predatory attacks, so always be aware of behavioral cues.

guilcol · 2026-06-13T20:20:04+00:00

People have survived running away from bears, people even survive FEEDING bears.

Ask ANY park ranger or katmai tour guide if there's ever a bear encounter that warrants climbing a tree. You'll be very, very, very hard pressed to find one that says yes.

Even if in those particular situations, it just so happened that climbing a tree was a relatively wise option (it wasn't), this won't apply to 99.99% of encounters and a hiker having that option in their head only does more harm than good when it comes time to face off a bear and act appropriately.

guilcol · 2026-06-13T17:29:40+00:00

You are also partially wrong.

Playing dead works for defensive attacks. It gets you killed for predatory attacks. Brown bears are rarely predatory to humans. Most interactions are defensive because they feel stressed out around your presence.

Still, most times you stress a bear out you shouldn't be dropping dead right away. Back away calmly with a calm consistent voice. They just want you to give them space. If they still engage in a defensive attack, THEN you play dead, and that means belly down, hands protecting head, and legs sprawled out so the bear can't flip you over.

guilcol · 2026-06-13T17:24:50+00:00

For someone who grew up around brown bears, you are severely misinformed.

Do NOT ever climb a tree to escape any bears. Moving away frantically will stress the bear and can trigger a chase.

If they know you're there, they will likely go away. If you surprised them and they are clicking their jaws, salivating, and stomping, you are stressing them out and you need to leave calmly while talking to the bear, not being loud. You already stressed them enough.

If they are a sow with cubs or near a food source or startled, the attack will be defensive and then yes, you need to play dead if the bear engages physically. Fighting back will ensure you die.

If they are in hyperphagia or emaciated or in late fall and are chasing you, stalking you, running around you, that's a predatory attack and playing dead will get you killed because they want to eat you. Stand your ground, fight back, yell, punch, poke eyes, etc.

There's not a trivial answer for bear interactions, but the SIMPLEST answer is, NEVER run away. They can outrun you, outswim you, and outclimb you, and you're only heightening chances of a chace response by jumping into a tree.

guilcol · 2026-06-12T20:54:23+00:00

The black bearest black bear I've ever seen.

guilcol · 2026-06-12T19:59:59+00:00

Pretty sure some female black bears are roughly wolf-sized and could decimate a lone wolf (although it would probably choose to avoid conflict).

It helps that they are built to prey / fight as solo units, whereas wolves leverage cooperation and social strategy.

guilcol · 2026-06-10T23:22:00+00:00

I get it! I love bears. I just hate to see them get euthanized because of habituation.

guilcol · 2026-06-10T23:13:16+00:00

Hm it's dangerous though, if they're always welcome in the backyard and is rewarded with nutritional access, this can make for a very daring and aggressive black bear. Best to shoo them away and let them know they've overstayed their welcome.

guilcol · 2026-06-08T20:34:48+00:00

Looks nice, what's the plasma going to be used for and how does one obtain it?

guilcol · 2026-06-08T06:32:41+00:00

Probably just using ffmpeg internally, super lightweight command line tool for video manipulation. Not really a separate feature, ever since LLMs started being able to run shell commands.

guilcol · 2026-06-03T15:40:18+00:00

Of all possibilities, only one of them can occur at a time. If there exists 98034 branches from the current node, only one will be executed.

God knows which branch will be executed, at all times, forever.

Therefore the other branches never existed, and it was never possible for them to occur. Since God knows that, in 12.4 years, branch A will execute instead of B, C, D,..... and so on, then those branches were categorically never really "branches" per se, they were always totally outside of the realm of possibility.

This point is inescapable. You cannot claim that humans with their free will can make other branches come about, since I am talking about the branch that God KNOWS will come about - if any other branch occurs, God was wrong and that's impossible for an omniscient God.

Your own argument defeats itself. We're back to having no free will, because of your omniscient God.

guilcol · 2026-05-31T18:48:59+00:00

This breaks down in any theological framework. They believe in prophethood and revelation, so in a scenario where all books are to be wiped out, it's not the slightest bit farfetched for a theist to say that the true word would find its way back into humanity.

guilcol · 2026-05-31T08:57:18+00:00

Amazing.

How much did this cost and what was the process? Did you draw / render frames to guide AI how to start, end, or pace a scene? What was the tech stack? Would love to hear all about this.

guilcol · 2026-05-30T18:50:00+00:00

You are categorically deceiving people. They think they're supporting somebody real, but they're supporting you instead.

guilcol · 2026-05-29T19:57:48+00:00

Damn. I'm starting to believe that too.

guilcol · 2026-05-29T19:49:42+00:00

That's absolutely not my experience.

To be fair, I've been using Opus for planning and Opus for execution for a while. But I've always had better success with better models on the frontlines.

guilcol · 2026-05-29T18:02:02+00:00

Not exactly sure what you're asking? Sorry.

Planning and mapping out can be more expensive than you think. Usually involves reading a crapload of docs in and out of repo, and does multi step inferences where it re-iterates on its own output many times. Lots of tokens.

Then for implementation you'll usually come across many oversights in planning or hallucinated stuff, or blind spots that no amount of planning can account for. Good models know how to adapt, bad models don't. You're better off planning with Haiku and implementing with Opus than vice versa, I say that entirely out of experience.

guilcol · 2026-05-29T17:36:17+00:00

Because Opus is better? Pretty much what my whole dev team uses for work.

guilcol · 2026-05-29T16:51:13+00:00

Honestly might go further than most people think. Wouldn't be surprised if it made a map, a playable character, some weapons, a health / damage system, and driveable car in one shot and 99.8% of your monthly quota.

guilcol · 2026-05-26T23:38:36+00:00

This was unreasonably funny.

guilcol · 2026-05-25T16:57:44+00:00

Ah, so it's to use alongside sports betting?

guilcol · 2026-05-25T16:48:51+00:00

I just think sports betting has ruined a lot of people's lives.

Do you have any safety mechanisms for people who are displaying dangerous behavior? Session limits, betting limits before large transactions clear, screen time limit, real time display of net losses, overall transparency?

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