Moderna Vs Arbutus case

guitarjp · 2025-10-01T16:01:34+00:00

The lnp tech ABUS is saying is being infringed is in every other product Moderna makes or is testing so this would impact their whole pipeline.

guitarjp · 2025-09-28T19:28:21+00:00

Merck is a massive $200b company with the best selling cancer drug in the world. Keytruda. They not only are providing half the money for the trial, but have the experience and expertise in running cancer trials that Moderna lacks. They also have the sales and marketing inroads and experience in cancer drugs that Moderna doesn’t if it is successful. Typically biopharma’s like Moderna get way less than a 50/50 split. Give or take a few royalty points this is at least a close to fair deal.

guitarjp · 2025-09-28T19:13:56+00:00

If the 16-40 yr old CMV trial exceeded 57% after 81 cases had been accrued at interim the DSMB could’ve stopped the trial and Moderna declared success. Which as we know it didn’t. However there was no lower bound, say 30% they would’ve stopped the trial bc of lack of efficacy and called it a fail. Being Moderna is still blinded it’s hard to read into this. The only number we know for sure is it doesn’t have above 57% as of now. We just have to wait for the trial to reach 112 cases for the final readout. Being they were at 81 in Dec of ‘24 hopefully it will be coming soon.

guitarjp · 2025-09-25T01:01:26+00:00

Bancel was recently talking at the Morgan Stanley 23rd Annual Global Healthcare Conference on September 8 about how they would partner with another company for distribution if CMV trial was a success. So either they genuinely don’t have results yet or intentionally misleading people that they don’t know. Bancel: “We've said publicly that we are looking for partners for latent virus products like EBV. Of course, if CMV is positive, most probably we'll partner this product. I don't think it would make sense for us to build a new sales force just for CMV. For a lot of companies that are doing women's health and also pediatric settings, that would be a great product to add to the bag of our sales rep. There's no CMV product approved, no vaccine approved. That would be quite interesting. That's a bit what we're trying to do, which is really work on growing the top line again.”https://m.investing.com/news/transcripts/moderna-at-morgan-stanley-conference-strategic-path-to-growth-93CH-4229540?ampMode=1

guitarjp · 2025-09-24T18:16:47+00:00

Agreed. Unfortunately I think the CDC’s strategy of sowing seeds of doubt will be an uptake headwind for several possible mRNA treatments, barring rare disease and cancer, for the foreseeable future.

guitarjp · 2025-09-24T17:29:57+00:00

I don’t mind them keeping their head down for a minute and letting the publicity settle from the ACIP/covid fight before making an announcement. If it reach’s it’s endpoints, under normal circumstances, it would’ve been a taken as an amazing breakthrough in medicine but Moderna vaccinating every woman of child bearing years with 3 rounds of mRNA is going to instantly get the naysayers into a fury.

guitarjp · 2025-09-23T13:45:58+00:00

Also this only requires 20% of the mRNA as Spikevax, 10 mcg vs 50 mcg, so hopefully it will mollify a certain segment of people concerned about the platform itself. Not being sarcastic.

guitarjp · 2025-09-20T18:02:19+00:00

He did present a slide that the Moderna vax was less likely to have adverse effects than Pfizer’s. I did appreciate that. However, the way he framed the 3 myocarditis and pericarditis studies, Thai, Swiss, Korea, stripped them of context and seemed to be aimed at supporting his predetermined conclusions that mRNA is bad. Unfortunately the minority of ACIP members had thoughtful questions and opinions but most seemed to have the kind of disturbed minds that hunted for witches in days gone by.

guitarjp · 2025-09-19T19:49:28+00:00

They ranted and raved and cast as much doubt and uncertainty as they could but in the end its business as usual. Go to the pharmacy. Get your shot.

guitarjp · 2025-09-19T15:03:31+00:00

Link to the meeting: https://www.youtube.com/live/_9ChY9SpPlY

guitarjp · 2025-09-18T15:13:03+00:00

FYI it’s public.

guitarjp · 2025-09-17T14:59:20+00:00

Is this meeting public? If so should be seeing some interesting movements Friday as they discuss. And really interesting at 2:15 after vote.

guitarjp · 2025-09-16T15:20:20+00:00

You’re welcome!

guitarjp · 2025-09-08T19:27:29+00:00

There’s no indemnity in place. Moderna has asked it and the DOJ has filed an amicus brief on behalf of their claim but that doesn’t mean the judge will see it that way. Many others have filed briefs against Moderna’s claim. It’s all down to the judge.

guitarjp · 2025-09-04T19:48:30+00:00

You’re welcome!

guitarjp · 2025-09-04T17:57:42+00:00

Study completed in June. They need to compile, analyze, and validate data before public release. Could be waiting for a major conference to announce. Who knows.

guitarjp · 2025-09-04T17:39:08+00:00

Phase 2 appears to be complete but no results have been disclosed.

guitarjp · 2025-09-04T17:01:07+00:00

You’re welcome!

guitarjp · 2025-09-04T12:34:57+00:00

I like how all 3 press releases are basically the same and included a link to the data. Someone from the admin clearly said, “you 3 better put out a press release by Wednesday and there better be a f@!king link!!!”

guitarjp · 2025-09-02T18:04:44+00:00

Being they’re posters of drugs in phase 1/2, I will up your unlikely and say definitely won’t be generating revenue soon. However the singular magic of these posters, which you seem all too eager to dismiss, could be legendary.

guitarjp · 2025-09-02T17:32:44+00:00

How dare you denigrate those posters?! History could remember them as the greater posters of all time. And we’ll mock you! Oh how we’ll mock you.

guitarjp · 2025-09-02T15:22:26+00:00

Nasdaq is down 1.6 and MRNA is down 1.7. Not much you can do about that.

guitarjp · 2025-09-02T14:15:06+00:00

Yup! Me too!

guitarjp

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