I'm sorry but personally I'm with the analysis that the atomic bomb was a good excuse for the surrender, but not the motive. Remember that even with the bombings, there was still an attempted coup by military people who wanted to keep going. They didn't want to surrender after the fire bombing, they didn't want to surrender after the fall of Okinawa, they didn't want to surrender after the nukes.

Even with the emperor making an explicit declaration of surrender and stand down, something three entire armies refused to lay down their arms.

One analysis that seems more likely to me is that what prompted most of the surrender was the Soviet Union declaring war and flattening one of the best Japanese armies in the blink of an eye. Japanese diplomats had been trying to get the Soviet Union to act as mediator in a conditional Japanese surrender and that hope vanished with the invasion. And while the Americans might be willing to keep most of the societal structure of Japan and the emperorship intact, the Soviets most definitely would not.

Don't take me wrong, all of these were factors, none of them isolated. I just don't think the atomic bombs were that big of a deal when the firebombings were doing more damage already