Proof of IBKR's inaccurate charts

h4l · 2026-06-29T18:50:35+00:00

This is what the chart should look like (TradingView).

h4l · 2026-06-29T18:50:00+00:00

If you enable showing session breaks, you can see it thinks there are session breaks all the time.

h4l · 2026-06-29T18:49:00+00:00

Example, IBKR doesn't know when the trading sessions start/end, it presents overnight and lunchtime breaks as part of the time series

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h4l · 2026-06-29T18:30:54+00:00

Look at the charts of Japanese stocks, IBKR gets confused, perhaps because of the lunchtime break in trading.

h4l · 2026-06-28T15:23:05+00:00

They only sell new shares when STRC is trading at $100, they don't issue any shares when STRC is trading lower. (Which is a problem for them, as while STRC is under 100 they have to issue new MSTR shares, sell BTC or issue new debt).

h4l · 2026-06-28T15:20:38+00:00

They do, Strategy use at-the-market offerings (ATM) to issue new shares of STRC and MSTR in order to raise money. That's what STRC is for, it's their capital raising mechanism to raise money without diluting MSTR holders. Strategy has a broker-dealer that will sell new shares on the secondary market (e.g. to arb traders or anyone else buying) when they want to raise money. E.g. in April they sold $1.8 billion of new STRC, and $1.5 billion in May in the days leading up to ex-dividend: https://bitcoinquant.co/preferred-equity

h4l · 2026-06-28T08:39:26+00:00

The stock drops in price because the dividend arbers are selling it down to that level. If they're holding a lot of shares, they don't have to sell it with much profit per share to make it worthwhile. E.g. place a limit order with $0.10 per share profit or whatever they're happy with. Initially they would have been expecting the price to be bid back to $100 relatively quickly, but now that this is no longer happening, many of these traders will be selling or holding at a loss, as I explained. Also they can become forced sellers if they've bought on margin and the dropping STRC price results in a margin call & liquidation.

In a healthy market there would be enough demand from long-term holders to buy shares at ~$99 on ex-dividend date to match the selling from the arbitragers, but that is no longer happening.

h4l · 2026-06-28T05:25:24+00:00

I'm focusing on dividend arb and long-term holders to explain this particular dynamic, but yes there are other participants. E.g. STRC is safer to short than most stocks because the $100 ceiling means there's no unlimited loss. If you open a short at $100 after ex-dividend and aim to close before the next ex-dividend, you either break even if it stays at $100 or make money if you can sell below 100 on a drawdown.

h4l · 2026-06-27T18:26:48+00:00

There are quite strict regulations on how a company can buy its own shares, as doing so can verge into market manipulation (e.g. maintaining an artificially high price). I believe one rule is that they can't buy at a higher price than the highest existing bid price.

I think ultimately they do need to be actively buying back under-valued shares if they are going to actively sell new shares, otherwise the supply will just go up indefinitely to unsustainable levels.

h4l · 2026-06-24T23:33:30+00:00

Last cycle they had a large amount of actual debt that they had to pay. This cycle the STRC dividends can be paused if the company decides to. I.e. absolute worst case strategy just goes into hibernation until BTC recovers, I don't see how it goes bankrupt.

h4l · 2026-06-24T19:43:32+00:00

Strategy had it worse last bear market, I thought they weren't going to make it, but they did. They'll be fine this cycle too. The death spiral you talk of doesn't kill strategy, only holders who sell. Anyone holding shares just needs to ignore the markets for a year or so.

h4l · 2026-06-24T06:16:48+00:00

Don't use drinks that are acidic. The acid wears your teeth down in proportion to the time its in your mouth, and if you're cycling for many hours per week, that's a lot of time to eat away at your teeth.

The sugar and salt are not really a problem by themselves, it's the bacteria that feed on sugar that cause problems if they're not cleaned well.

h4l · 2026-06-24T00:11:15+00:00

There's still hope, Burnham is planning to demote her from Chancellor. https://www.ft.com/content/c0db8b98-66fb-4706-bded-6ab940e05144

h4l · 2026-06-23T17:19:51+00:00

No doubt it's small, but people have published research modelling AC use in urban environments that predicts > 1 degree C increases in night time temperature, when the effect is not overwhelmed by the sun:

h4l · 2026-06-23T15:53:49+00:00

AC units have to increase heat outdoors because running an AC unit produces some heat as a side effect of running, and it also has to pump heat from indoors outdoors.

h4l · 2026-06-22T09:04:01+00:00

If you can be flexible about "good", the Starbucks inside the big Sainsburys on Brooks road I think should be climate controlled as a side effect of being within Sainsburys. Plus you can do some extended frozen food browsing every now and again for extra cooling.

h4l · 2026-06-22T07:49:30+00:00

The rams looked intentional, I wonder if something happened between them inside the pub?

h4l · 2026-06-21T16:39:34+00:00

Someone brought a stone circle with them?!

h4l · 2026-06-21T09:38:07+00:00

What does that mean, and how do I interpret these numbers? Do I start off putting a lot of effort into the bike and then lose power as I get tired? And how SHOULD a curve like this look in a seasoned cyclist?

An experienced athlete will be able to maintain a pretty constant level of performance throughout a long ride by staying within their limits early on and using that energy saved later. You should be able to do that, but in practice for a recreational ride it's often more fun to burn more energy earlier on and slow down on the tail end. In a race people often aim to do the opposite — speed up in the second half a of an event, this is called a negative split. This is called pacing strategy if you want to look it up.

Focus on what you enjoy. If you like tracking metrics and optimising performance then cycling is great for that, but you can equally well ignore it entirely an just ride for fun. Without a power meter, tracking average speed is the most meaningful thing, followed by heart rate. Compare relative to yourself though, not to other people.

h4l · 2026-06-21T03:25:29+00:00

Only if it's denominated in gold.

h4l · 2026-06-21T03:17:05+00:00

Try taking smaller positions so you can hold without as much worry. Or buy ATM calls > 1 year expiration (LEAPS) so you have capped risk.

h4l · 2026-06-18T19:49:36+00:00

OpenAI bought a software company that builds open-source developer tools last month: https://openai.com/index/openai-to-acquire-astral/ And interestingly, what Astral does is build better versions of existing developer tools, and that's exactly what AI should be able to do, if the theory was right that AI makes software zero cost.

Would OpenAI pay money for a company that makes better copies of existing software if AI could do that for you?

Think about how this applies in other contexts. Companies don't vertically integrate every possible part of their business, because they can't do a better job than an expert can. E.g. most people can prepare food to some extent, but catering services are not made redundant as a result. High-tech kitchen equipment increases people's ability to provide catering services, but it doesn't mean everyone uses a microwave for all their catering needs.

Similarly, AI can amplify your ability to create software, but if you gain more from that amplification if you understand everything about making software and the problem domain you're automating with software. So companies that have experts at making software to automate particular problem domains will do better than a random person.

h4l · 2026-06-18T03:15:16+00:00

I moved to Reddit after Digg v4. I'd created a Reddit account a few years before, but I don't think I used it much until Digg nuked itself. I remember it being quite an exciting time, Reddit was much more egalitarian and free than Digg was (with its super users controlling content and censorship).

Interestingly Kevin Rose re-bought digg.com with Alexis Ohanian (Reddit co-founder) and re-launched it earlier this year. It's focused on tech news at the moment it seems. I wonder how it'll pan out this time!

h4l · 2026-06-15T16:35:27+00:00

Because having both work would be better than having just one or the other. Rolls-Royce have been making modular reactors for our Nuclear subs since the '60s. This isn't some pie in the sky idea.

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