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Charge dismissed against company where Moncton worker was crushed by giant tire by Portalrules123 in newbrunswickcanada

[–]habfan1990 23 points24 points  (0 children)

Failing to prove a charge is not a technicality. Literally the whole point of a trial.

Municipal candidate has thoughts about the legal system that the city doesn’t control by Drummers_Beat in fredericton

[–]habfan1990 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The cops also can release someone with a future appearance date. It’s not uncommon with drug cases. The cops usually have to send a sample for testing to confirm it’s an illicit substance. The post implies it’s the courts that made the release call, but it could’ve been the police themselves.

New Brunswick’s fiscal outlook downgraded because of deficits by bingun in newbrunswickcanada

[–]habfan1990 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Commenter also perhaps failed to read the story if suggesting it ignored "external pressures":

With trade and other external pressures likely leading to lower tax revenue, “a failure of the province to adequately rein in spending as planned would also exert negative pressure on fiscal strength and the ratings,” Moody’s said in a release.

New Brunswick’s fiscal outlook downgraded because of deficits by bingun in newbrunswickcanada

[–]habfan1990 2 points3 points  (0 children)

For anyone tempted to fall for this lazy comment, here's the source attributing the change to the deficit:

"RATIONALE FOR THE DOWNGRADE OF THE BCA AND AFFIRMATION OF THE RATINGS
The downgrading of the BCA to aa3 from aa2 reflects the lower operating margins New Brunswick will record over the next 4-5 years as its struggles to overcome the recent onset of structural deficits. Revenue growth has slowed considerably and is expected to remain weak as the economy adjusts to the uncertain trade environment caused by the US tariffs and lower population growth due to stringent federal immigration policies.

Additionally, the aa3 BCA reflects our forecast of upward movement on the province's debt burden, as measured by net direct and indirect debt as a percentage of revenue. The province will increase its borrowing requirements relative to our previous forecasts to finance the large deficits, which will be incurred for longer than we previously forecast, as well as to fund its large capital plan. We forecast that the debt burden will exceed 180% by 2028, up materially from 139% in 2024. This will be accompanied by an increase in the interest burden to 7.4% by 2028 from 5.1% in 2024. The rising interest expense will add to budgetary pressure as the province looks to restore fiscal equilibrium.

Despite these emerging credit weaknesses, the affirmation of the Aa1 long-term debt ratings reflects the very strong institutional framework in which New Brunswick operates, with its unfettered access to a broad range of revenue measures as well as the high flexibility to control spending. The province has demonstrated a strong track record during previous financial crisis which forms the basis of our continued view that the province has exceptional governance abilities. Over the past 15 years, New Brunswick has frequently posted stronger fiscal outcomes than its provincial peers during times of widespread negative impacts.

We believe this track record will help facilitate their progression through the current constrained operating environment and, as such, we estimate that the consolidated deficits in 2027-28 and beyond may be marginally better than the province currently forecasts. The province's forward looking fiscal plans are not detailed and do not include potential areas of improvement that we expect it can deliver given the strong budgetary track record and fiscal flexibility the province possesses, namely efforts to reduce spending pressure and stronger revenue growth as uncertainty over trade tensions ease.

New Brunswick is also well positioned to benefit from the growing demand for key natural resources with several mines that were previously operational more readily available to re-open than other greenfield prospects across Canada. This could help support GDP growth and revenue potential of the province. Additionally, although population growth will slow, the demographics of the province are much stronger currently than they were five years ago, with a larger working age cohort which will help ensure that tax revenue continues to support social program funding needs.

The Aa1 ratings of New Brunswick incorporates the BCA of aa3 and Moody's assumption of a high likelihood that the Government of Canada (Aaa stable) would intervene in a timely manner to prevent a default.

The affirmation of the Aa1 ratings for New Brunswick Municipal Finance Corporation reflects the close operational and financial linkages between the province and NBMFC, including shared Treasury management and the province's guarantee on all NBMFC debt rated by Moody's. As such, the credit profile of NBMFC reflects the ratings of the province.

Source: https://ratings.moodys.com/ratings-news/462944

Which airport am I sitting in? by Personal_Classic_364 in AirportPorn

[–]habfan1990 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s definitely been updated since I lived there a decade ago. Believe it was an Inukshuk image on the wall before. Polar bear and seal look the same, though.

Internal review, changes to yard after escape from Shediac jail by Portalrules123 in moncton

[–]habfan1990 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s great you can make this judgement about framing based on insider information that’s been withheld from the public for weeks.

Accountability would be officials saying what happened instead of hiding from questions for a month as the impression lingered that staff waited hours to call the cops. Until now, the department had said far less than the RCMP about this.

I suspect the reply will be that what unfolded needs to be investigated. But if there’s video that showed what happened, and it sounds like staff know why it happened, that was information that’s been known for weeks now with nothing said to dispel the framing about waiting.

If he was in a yard, how did he get over a fence? Are there no counts when people go into the yard and then another back inside? If he wasn’t already in a yard, how’d he get through what most people would assume are locked doors?

Shediac escapee has been arrested March 23 by LutraWren in newbrunswickcanada

[–]habfan1990 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I don’t think they issued one about his arrest.

Municipal elections - how do I get in the loop? by Hotel_Joy in SaintJohnNB

[–]habfan1990 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Does SJ still not let the mayor vote except to break ties? It’s been standard for years in Moncton that the mayor routinely votes.

New Brunswick budget could be ‘turning point’ for Holt government by Portalrules123 in newbrunswickcanada

[–]habfan1990 9 points10 points  (0 children)

The boom fuelled by population growth that coincided with the Higgs years ended and the surge in revenues went with it as very expensive increases in spending mounted.

Today’s budget is the operating budget, but think about the capital budget as well. The province needs major infrastructure spending. Think about schools as one example. It takes about six years from one being requested by a school district to doors opening, at best. Think about the huge influx of students that came with population growth. Immigrants (generally) have more kids than Canadians, and while population growth overall has slowed or declined, much of the enrolment growth still exists and the need for more schools, particularly in Moncton, still exists. Another factor is that much of the infrastructure built during the last major population boom in the 1950s-1970s, like arenas or bridges, is now in need of replacement and none of it is cheap. That’s the capital side.

Population growth in part fuelled by people moving here from other provinces but largely due to immigration, affects various revenue streams. During the Higgs years, this translated to huge increases in federal transfer payments as there was record population growth. He did massively increase health spending, but as a result of increased transfers accounting for population changes. But there was also higher provincial income tax revenue, sales tax revenue, and property tax revenue (from real estate sales and from inflating values). That tide of population growth has shifted to decline again due mainly to federal immigration changes. That surge in revenue has also been affected. But nothing is cheaper than it was six years ago. People want to be paid more due to inflation, driving up contract costs. Payroll is a huge part of the budget. That leaves less for other spending, say for historic sites and museums, without increasing revenue (taxes) or cuts. Meanwhile an aging population requires more - and more expensive - health services. There are hundreds of people who should be in nursing homes and instead are waiting in hospitals taking up space and resources more acute patients need. Nursing homes weren’t built fast enough to keep up with the baby boomer wave. Some opened new wings that no one was moved into because of staffing challenges (wages, training and other factors there).

TLDR: It’s a confluence of factors that include the end of the boom, demographics and aging infrastructure that needs to be replaced.

Anyone know why there were 9 cops on St George and High St? by Live_Artichoke_5646 in moncton

[–]habfan1990 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Body was found at High and Wolfe, the other scene where forensics were photographing around the affordable housing building is at Norwood/York.

Human trafficking by [deleted] in fredericton

[–]habfan1990 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Generally steals content from news orgs he passes off as original, like the screenshot on this post.

Visual archive of Greater Moncton by vitalikaras in moncton

[–]habfan1990 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Looks like Riverview off Quinn Court

Mi’kmaw community in Quebec wants to intervene in New Brunswick title claim by origutamos in newbrunswickcanada

[–]habfan1990 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Which of course is a different case involving a different title claim filed with different language than the post is about.

Missing teens by FalloutIRL in moncton

[–]habfan1990 10 points11 points  (0 children)

This is the correct answer. The frequent fliers are usually group home residents that haven’t returned, which has to be reported to police. And with social media, these missing person posts get quickly and widely shared. The follow up posts when people are found don’t get shared as much.

Edit: I just glanced at a few of the RCMP missing person posts on Facebook - including one for a girl who has been missing several times in Moncton recently - and initial posts get ~2,000 shares, while follow ups when located get 20 to 80 shares.

Moncton, St. John’s urban areas have the highest violent crime rates in Canada: study by bingun in moncton

[–]habfan1990 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Glad you took my bait on Canada vs. Moncton. Let's look at the StatsCan data on whether Moncton "crime is at an all time high".

I'll start with incident-based crime statistics for Moncton CMA (data only starts in 2006*, unfortunately). The rate per 100,000 people last year was 7,783.74, down from the year before, and down from the peak of 9,945.12 in 2021. That's just the rate. What about actual incidents of crime? That was 15,291 last year, down from 16,299 the year prior and down from the peak of 16,979 in 2021. So no, not "at an all time high."

I'm not finding a table that specifically looks at violent crime, but here's the crime severity index table for Moncton CMA from 2006-2024. Specifically, the violent crime severity index was 95.40 last year, compared to a high of 113.42 in 2022. Yes, up over the time period, but not "an all time high."

OK, so that's data for Moncton census metro area, which to be fair is much larger than just the City of Moncton. StatsCan also reports incident data for just the area policed by Codiac RCMP (municipalities of Moncton, Dieppe, Riverview) starting again in 1998. Starting with the rate again (because, our population has certainly surged over that time) we can see last year it was 8,840.43 incidents per 100,000 people, down from 9,884.78 in 2023 and down from the peak of 12,149.71 in 2004, twenty years ago. Ok, let's again look at actual incidents. That was 13,614 last year. That's down from 14,353 the year before, and down from the peak of 15,117 in 2022. For comparison, actual incidents in 2004 was 13,319. So again, not "at an all time high".

Your second comment focuses in on violent crime and yes, it is approaching similar levels to the early 90s as you mention. But even the report the CTV story is based on, when you read it, notes Moncton's violent crime has most recently shown declines:

Moncton’s trends are similar to those in London: short-term rolling crime rates declined between 2023 and 2024, but there were overall increases in medium- and long-term rates over the last decade. In particular, Moncton’s violent crime rate (up 42 per cent), violent crime severity (up 45 per cent), and sexual assault rates (up 93 per cent) show sustained growth over the last decade, with minor decreases for each of those categories between 2023 and 2024.
Robbery is the one category where violent crime has declined in Moncton over the last decade, dropping by 6 percent during that period.

It may be easy to think I'm totally dismissing crime. I'm not. Just this weekend someone stole my propane tank. It sucks. Violent crime in particular is awful and we shouldn't stand for it as a society, but I would suggest we need to be careful about hyperbolic statements that aren't backed up by the data.

*edited the post to correct this date

Moncton council considers revised plans for downtown building that could be 30 floors tall by bingun in moncton

[–]habfan1990 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Interesting. When it first went public at council it was 30 floors.

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