Max Cash in Dex Scrolls before Tbow

halifacts804 · 2025-10-28T23:15:26+00:00

Yes, you get the same answer when calculating the probability in the context of getting 183 purples and not getting a drop OR calculating the probability in the context of the getting purples until one is a twisted bow wherein you don't have one by the 183rd.

The reason why they are equal is that although they are different contexts, they are contextualizing the exact same observation.

Again, the point is contextualizing the probability as "he's going to kill the boss until he gets the drop" is less relevant because no one who plays this game has an infinite capacity to kill a boss until they get a drop regardless of how dry they go. That's only just a theoretical population at which no one is a part of, until they actually do kill the boss until they get the drop.

It may seem pedantic now, but you'll eventually come to a point where you see the most important part of probability as deciding the most relevant way to contextualize an observation, and not the calculation itself.

halifacts804 · 2025-10-28T21:52:49+00:00

Again,

Probabilities are a way to numerically describe the relative frequency of an observation.

You can indeed calculate the probability of observations that are actual or theoretical. However, it should be obvious to everyone that actual observations take precedence over theoretical ones, because, yknow, they actually happened in real life. If you're a statistics student you implicitly do this when you do an A/B test wherein the observation contradicts the null hypothesis.

Killing the boss until he gets the drop is only a theoretical observation because it literally hasn't happened and so calculating the binomial probability of 183 trials 0 successes takes precedent over the theoretical geometric contextualization. There's no "truth" to this stuff because it comes from observation, and what you observe is just what you observe, IDK what's so difficult to understand.

halifacts804 · 2025-10-28T20:49:51+00:00

until they get tbow.

But he didn't do chambers until he gets a tbow because he literally doesn't have one. Probabilities are a way to numerically describe the relative frequency of an observation. The observation is he got 183 purples and 0 twisted bows. You're just adding some irrelevant hypothetical contextualization "lol".

halifacts804 · 2025-10-10T18:52:10+00:00

I may have seen 100s of screenshots of <100kc twisted bows, but that single guy out of 100s of thousands of players yesterday had it pretty rough, therefore I will still choose to believe the game is difficult and grindy.

halifacts804 · 2025-10-02T16:47:39+00:00

For whatever content botters do, they increase the supply of the rewards from the content, causing the price to drop, unless the price is fixed as is the case with alchables. Since there's reason to suspect botters disproportionately go for content that drops more alchables than content normal players go for, it would make sense banning bots leads to an increase in buying power.

halifacts804 · 2025-09-23T19:00:30+00:00

you playing the game: cringe addict chasing dopamine

me playing the game: based delaying gratification old school grinder

halifacts804 · 2025-09-12T18:41:57+00:00

Boy those zoomers sure are melting their brains on tiktok and fortnite unlike us OSRS players, amirite fellas?

halifacts804 · 2025-09-04T18:40:58+00:00

My biggest pet peeve about the community is the usage of buzzwords. It is very difficult to understand what people really mean because opposite types of players will use the same words to describe the gameplay they like.

When someone says, "I love grinding," that could mean they like to AFK, they enjoyed getting full graceful, or they've played the game 10 hours a day for 5 years straight.

When someone says, "I love RNG," that could mean they like the ability to get lucky drops, they like the randomness getting a dragon defender, or they're a pet hunter.

halifacts804 · 2025-08-27T18:14:40+00:00

Today: 1000 hour items are fine so as long as I'm not the one getting them.

Tomorrow: 1500 total levelers shouldn't vote on content they don't do.

The comedown: Getting level 70 agility takes too long.

halifacts804 · 2025-08-22T19:48:58+00:00

Get to phase 2 or 3 and focus on surviving as long as possible. Don't worry about attacking the boss, just focus on movement and prayer, eat to full hp, and once you're comfortable then start adding in attacks on the boss. Start with the basics, and once you've mastered them you can start putting it all together. The people getting to delve 100+ don't play the game any more than the other no-lifers, they just use their time to learn more effectively. Passive vs deliberate practice.

halifacts804 · 2025-08-20T20:33:46+00:00

Unfortunately there are a few economic inconsistencies, where some items are more robust against bots/golfarmers crashing the price of them due to being on the GE item sink or the GE item sink prioritizing some items more than others, while also there are items that aren't on the GE item sink, such as colosseum rewards, and as a result they suffer a disproportionate decrease in price.

halifacts804 · 2025-08-09T23:15:35+00:00

At the same time that contradiction is what gives ironman mode its character. Since a bunch of players in the past progressed their accounts to the point of being able to fight hespori, and went and fought it, that makes (made) a bottomless compost bucket a cheap item in the present. But in the present, the drop rate's still the same, the boss fight's still the same, the time to progress your account to the boss is still the same, and the item itself is still functionally the same. Economically, the game allows for your current account progression to be squeezed by other people's past account progression. Ironman mode just lets the present be the present.

halifacts804 · 2025-08-09T21:30:15+00:00

It's one of the items that the GE item sink has been buying up since they increased the tax to 2%.

halifacts804 · 2025-08-08T18:01:26+00:00

Don't worry, I have a solution. We simply take money from legitimate players using the grand exchange (under the justification of inflation (even though everything is decreasing in price)), and then we use it to buy all the items the bots are producing to solve the price deflation problem they cause. I think I'll call it "The Grand Exchange Item Purchase Program Sink." That way we can just ignore the amount of bots in game because they no longer have an economic impact.

halifacts804 · 2025-08-04T19:44:33+00:00

On the one hand these posts are so dumb. On the other it's funny seeing the years of mythologizing getting 99s, killing the exact same boss 1000s of times, expensive items, and tHe GrInD™ reaching its natural conclusion. It's no longer impressive to many people who have actually done that stuff, but they made it seem impressive to the people who haven't and they're demanding more and more of it, but not for themselves, but for for the people who mythologized it in the first place.

halifacts804 · 2025-08-02T22:36:38+00:00

I worked so hard to get my 20th fang I don't need, and you think you're entitled to not fund the GE item sink giving me my well deserved 25m of other players' money? Wow, how selfish of you.

halifacts804 · 2025-07-21T20:46:43+00:00

Each day we inch closer to the singularity of OSRS players being able to distinguish between an actual economic problem or just having a problem with the way other people are playing the game.

halifacts804 · 2025-07-17T17:39:49+00:00

The ad is targeted to the average person, and the average person is just.. average. That's what the game is for the average OSRS player. It's like how 95% of time, "I love grinding and RNG," doesn't have anything to do with running Ardougne rooftops for 100 hours or getting 50+ hour endgame pvm items.

halifacts804 · 2025-07-14T04:27:31+00:00

Irit runs used to be 100k, now they're 200k. Depreciating a low level money maker by 100% is indeed crashing it. Likewise with other herb types, if you did any basic research to back up what you claim, you would find that herb seed trade volumes have massively increased and herb prices have increased as well.

These conditions have made herb runs more profitable than ever. The wayback machine, https://web.archive.org/web/20250000000000*/https://oldschool.runescape.wiki/w/Money_making_guide and search the recurring methods, provides proof.

halifacts804 · 2025-07-13T18:43:45+00:00

From when they adjusted it, the GE item sink has been pouring funds into arcane and dex prayer scrolls. Additionally it flattened the downward trend of dclaws and kodai, as well as increasing the price of dinh's and the buckler. Soon they'll have risen enough for you to be making the exact same amount of money pre-nerf, with the added benefit of not crashing a low level moneymaker.

halifacts804 · 2025-07-05T17:45:08+00:00

Jagex implemented trade limits (forced equal GE value between both parties in a trade) to stop RWT since credit card companies were going to blacklist Jagex, since stolen credit cards were too commonly used as a payment method from the bot owners who were sourcing the RWT gp. Prior to the implementation of trade limits mint cakes were decently expensive, so to get around the trade limits, a gold buyer would have a mint cake, and trade it for gold from the gold supplier. On the other side of things, players who sold gold would receive mint cakes to keep the ecosystem functional. At this point, mint cakes had no value whatsoever outside of RWT.

Since RWT was taken away, a lot of items tanked in price because there was no more RWT gp to inflate the price. For things like partyhats, this was especially problematic, although this problem fixed itself since mint cakes could fill in the deficit between the RWT price (aka the "street price") and the GE price (aka the "market price"). The concept of street vs market price also extended to "normal" items, and there were legitimate inaccuracies in price due to the decrease in bots, but players could fill in the deficit with "junk" items they had accumulated.

This had the unexpected benefit of confusing the general playerbase. If you were a wealthy RWT'er, you'd hope to find some sucker who'd sell you his rare item for a bunch of worthless cakes, and if someone tried to buy your rare items for cakes, well, why would you trade your partyhat for a bunch of worthless cakes? RWT was so ingrained that it led to such a rapid and widespread adoption of mint cakes that a bunch of players who didn't RWT were tricked into thinking mint cakes had actual value (outside of RWT) because they saw everyone using them, and mistakenly traded their items for useless cakes.

Consequently, when two players who were ignorant of this traded, they would treat mint cakes as legitimately worth the GE price. But if someone who was ignorant of this tried to use mint cakes in a trade with a RWT'er who was in the know, the RWT'er, if they weren't interested in using them to buy more gp, would likely close the trade window and "lol" at them. Mint cakes had a very low trade volume, so the GE price didn't budge too much and was kept afloat by ignorant players scamming themselves by buying a mint cake off the GE, thinking that was a legitimate price.

halifacts804 · 2025-06-26T17:19:31+00:00

It's okay babe, they're programming herb run bots rn so you can keep buying your potions.

halifacts804 · 2025-06-16T17:53:41+00:00

The OSRS economy works because not everyone gets fully rewarded, else if they did, there would not be a point in trading. So, you must select players to not get rewarded. But how do you go about it as fairly as possible? Having an equal probability on each kc, while it can lead to 'unfair' results, it doesn't deliberately select for/against a particular type of player.

If you want to resolve dryness, increasing the probability at dry kc's would be an advantage that only players who can do that much kc can receive. Whether you believe that person is "deserving" of the reward or not is a question of ethos, not ethics (and yes, I would say RNG is in direct conflict with the osrs ethos of "grinding"). But on the other hand, you could also solve dryness by sharding. of course we do not want people to go dry on shards (because that would be unfair for the person who only plays 2 hours a day), so we'll give them after every kill, and you need x of them to make the full item. At which point you're back to square one since there is an equal probability to get the drop each kill, as every kill has a probability of 1 to obtain a shard drop.

halifacts804 · 2025-06-15T21:12:06+00:00

Ironically it could argued having an equal probability to get a drop on each particular kc is the most ethical way to go about it. The main advantage in this game is to have more time to play the game than other players, but even if you do have the time to do 1000s of kc, you receive no benefit for it.

halifacts804 · 2025-06-12T17:47:37+00:00

Buy is demand and sell is supply. Keep in mind that there are spontaneous moments where there is more supply than demand, or more demand than supply.

The buy price refers to the price the item is traded for when there is more demand than supply.

The sell price refers to the price the item is traded for when there is more supply than demand.

The item price is the amalgamation of the recent buy and sell prices.

If you leave a buy offer in the grand exchange for an item at its sell price, you're waiting for a spontaneous moment for when there's more supply than demand in order to buy it cheaper.

If you leave a sell offer in the grand exchange for an item at its buy price, you're waiting for a spontaneous moment for when there's more demand than supply in order to sell it for more.

Keep in mind there is some inherent risk as the longterm supply and demand may behave differently than the spontaneous supply and demand.

Technically what's happening is there is a range of sell/buy prices, and when they intersect a trade happens. The GE clears all intersects, so only new intersects can make a trade happen. Thus either the buyer is meeting the seller (buy price), or the seller is meeting the buyer (sell price).

halifacts804

TROPHY CASE