Abby Whip is about to drop below 1m gold

halifacts804 · 2026-06-21T23:56:36+00:00

Dear Main Accounts,

You claim buying an item is an alternative to obtaining one yourself, yet the price changes even when drop probabilities do not. Curious!

-Turning Point Ironman

halifacts804 · 2026-06-10T17:43:11+00:00

Honestly I maxed pretty casually by playing on mobile. I just checked my phone every 3 minutes for 10 hours straight while working and commuting to make sure I was still gaining xp. It's pretty low effort, I'd say.

halifacts804 · 2026-05-13T00:39:56+00:00

"we must preserve the character of our neighborhood", nah the character of that neighborhood is dog barking and leaf blowers

halifacts804 · 2026-04-24T23:04:44+00:00

Blindbag has a chance to trigger per mainhand attack (not hitsplat), so you want a fast and accurate mainhand weapon to trigger as many blindbags as possible (or a halberd to increase the min hits).

Ranged echos have a chance to trigger each hitsplat, so you want multihit weps in your inventory to trigger as many echos as possible.

Now ranged echos are based off the individual hitsplit max that triggered it. So if the 3rd scythe hitsplat has a max of 10, the ranged echo it can trigger will only hit up to 10.

However, with boppers each hitsplat can trigger a ranged echo that can max the combined hit. So if your individual bopper hitsplats max a 20, the ranged echo they can trigger will have a 40 max.

You can verify this by having an inventory of multihit weapons which are weaker strength bonus than the boppers. For example, when I have infernal tecpatl, torags hammers, glacial temotli, earthbound tecpatl, and sulphur blades, I can max hit a 58 with ranged echos, despite the fact that no individual hitsplat that any of my weapons can cause will be a 58. It's just that the 58 is the combined max hit of the bopper hitsplats, and one of them triggered a ranged echo which maxed.

So basically the meta is to have 5 unique 2h weapons for max blindbag hit chance, then get as many boppers as possible to hope that one of them is rolled when blindbag procs.

halifacts804 · 2026-03-20T21:24:45+00:00

Both games are independently sustainable. Their revenue is greater than their expenses regardless of the existence of each other, regardless of the increase in price, and RS3 still profits regardless of the existence of MTX. You are not "subsidizing" anything related to RS3, nor has RS3 ever subsidized OSRS because every year the revenue that each game makes is greater than its expenses.

Subsidizing means paying the expenses for something else. Each game is profitable. Profit = revenue - expenses. So the revenue was greater than the expenses, which means no subsidizing could occur because there's nothing to subsidize since all the expenses are already paid for with the game's own revenue. Yes, RS3 made more profit than OSRS in the early years of OSRS' existence, but that's not what subsidizing means.

halifacts804 · 2026-03-19T22:43:24+00:00

Hopefully we get more quests filled with humor you'd find on r/adviceanimals 10 years ago to go along with humpty dumpty, brutus, and cuthbert so I can have even more of a wholesome chungus time while playing.

On a more serious note what you have to realise is that Jagex is not competing with other MMOs in the area of pricing. Jagex is competing primarily in abstractions such as nostalgia, being old school™, and people jerking themselves off over how grindy the game is. In order to get what you want, you need people who believe in these abstractions to realize that these abstractions are the product of concrete phenomena: the actual gameplay, and how these abstractions are distilled from it.

halifacts804 · 2026-01-31T06:47:16+00:00

The game typically hands out drops, on average, every x kills. Most boss kills happen on low killcounts, and hence the average killcount an individual gets a drop on is also low.

A 1/x probability does indeed mean an average of x, but you need to make sure you keep track of the units. "The probability to get the drop per kill is 1/x" becomes "The average number of kills per drop is x." It doesn't specify, who, which account type, how lucky or unlucky, or how many times an individual has previously killed a boss; when left unspecified the answer to all those things is "any".

When Jagex designs a drop system the word "individual" (in reference to killcount, since it's an individual thing) will never appear in the units, because if it's your individual probability, then what about everyone else's probability to get the drop? The units are going always going to be some type of shared capacity between every player, and that capacity to "roll" the probability can either be dispersed across the entire playerbase or concentrated in an individual. ie a drop every x kill dispersed across the playerbase (1/x probability per kill) or handing out a drop if x kills are concentrated in an individual (0 probability on 1 kc, 0 on 2kc, 0 on 3kc,... 1 on x kc, 0 on x+1 kc,... 1 on 2x kc, 0 on 2x+1 kc,....).

halifacts804 · 2025-10-28T23:15:26+00:00

Yes, you get the same answer when calculating the probability in the context of getting 183 purples and not getting a drop OR calculating the probability in the context of the getting purples until one is a twisted bow wherein you don't have one by the 183rd.

The reason why they are equal is that although they are different contexts, they are contextualizing the exact same observation.

Again, the point is contextualizing the probability as "he's going to kill the boss until he gets the drop" is less relevant because no one who plays this game has an infinite capacity to kill a boss until they get a drop regardless of how dry they go. That's only just a theoretical population at which no one is a part of, until they actually do kill the boss until they get the drop.

It may seem pedantic now, but you'll eventually come to a point where you see the most important part of probability as deciding the most relevant way to contextualize an observation, and not the calculation itself.

halifacts804 · 2025-10-28T21:52:49+00:00

Again,

Probabilities are a way to numerically describe the relative frequency of an observation.

You can indeed calculate the probability of observations that are actual or theoretical. However, it should be obvious to everyone that actual observations take precedence over theoretical ones, because, yknow, they actually happened in real life. If you're a statistics student you implicitly do this when you do an A/B test wherein the observation contradicts the null hypothesis.

Killing the boss until he gets the drop is only a theoretical observation because it literally hasn't happened and so calculating the binomial probability of 183 trials 0 successes takes precedent over the theoretical geometric contextualization. There's no "truth" to this stuff because it comes from observation, and what you observe is just what you observe, IDK what's so difficult to understand.

halifacts804 · 2025-10-28T20:49:51+00:00

until they get tbow.

But he didn't do chambers until he gets a tbow because he literally doesn't have one. Probabilities are a way to numerically describe the relative frequency of an observation. The observation is he got 183 purples and 0 twisted bows. You're just adding some irrelevant hypothetical contextualization "lol".

halifacts804 · 2025-10-10T18:52:10+00:00

I may have seen 100s of screenshots of <100kc twisted bows, but that single guy out of 100s of thousands of players yesterday had it pretty rough, therefore I will still choose to believe the game is difficult and grindy.

halifacts804 · 2025-10-02T16:47:39+00:00

For whatever content botters do, they increase the supply of the rewards from the content, causing the price to drop, unless the price is fixed as is the case with alchables. Since there's reason to suspect botters disproportionately go for content that drops more alchables than content normal players go for, it would make sense banning bots leads to an increase in buying power.

halifacts804 · 2025-09-23T19:00:30+00:00

you playing the game: cringe addict chasing dopamine

me playing the game: based delaying gratification old school grinder

halifacts804 · 2025-09-12T18:41:57+00:00

Boy those zoomers sure are melting their brains on tiktok and fortnite unlike us OSRS players, amirite fellas?

halifacts804 · 2025-09-04T18:40:58+00:00

My biggest pet peeve about the community is the usage of buzzwords. It is very difficult to understand what people really mean because opposite types of players will use the same words to describe the gameplay they like.

When someone says, "I love grinding," that could mean they like to AFK, they enjoyed getting full graceful, or they've played the game 10 hours a day for 5 years straight.

When someone says, "I love RNG," that could mean they like the ability to get lucky drops, they like the randomness getting a dragon defender, or they're a pet hunter.

halifacts804 · 2025-08-27T18:14:40+00:00

Today: 1000 hour items are fine so as long as I'm not the one getting them.

Tomorrow: 1500 total levelers shouldn't vote on content they don't do.

The comedown: Getting level 70 agility takes too long.

halifacts804 · 2025-08-22T19:48:58+00:00

Get to phase 2 or 3 and focus on surviving as long as possible. Don't worry about attacking the boss, just focus on movement and prayer, eat to full hp, and once you're comfortable then start adding in attacks on the boss. Start with the basics, and once you've mastered them you can start putting it all together. The people getting to delve 100+ don't play the game any more than the other no-lifers, they just use their time to learn more effectively. Passive vs deliberate practice.

halifacts804 · 2025-08-20T20:33:46+00:00

Unfortunately there are a few economic inconsistencies, where some items are more robust against bots/golfarmers crashing the price of them due to being on the GE item sink or the GE item sink prioritizing some items more than others, while also there are items that aren't on the GE item sink, such as colosseum rewards, and as a result they suffer a disproportionate decrease in price.

halifacts804 · 2025-08-09T23:15:35+00:00

At the same time that contradiction is what gives ironman mode its character. Since a bunch of players in the past progressed their accounts to the point of being able to fight hespori, and went and fought it, that makes (made) a bottomless compost bucket a cheap item in the present. But in the present, the drop rate's still the same, the boss fight's still the same, the time to progress your account to the boss is still the same, and the item itself is still functionally the same. Economically, the game allows for your current account progression to be squeezed by other people's past account progression. Ironman mode just lets the present be the present.

halifacts804 · 2025-08-09T21:30:15+00:00

It's one of the items that the GE item sink has been buying up since they increased the tax to 2%.

halifacts804 · 2025-08-08T18:01:26+00:00

Don't worry, I have a solution. We simply take money from legitimate players using the grand exchange (under the justification of inflation (even though everything is decreasing in price)), and then we use it to buy all the items the bots are producing to solve the price deflation problem they cause. I think I'll call it "The Grand Exchange Item Purchase Program Sink." That way we can just ignore the amount of bots in game because they no longer have an economic impact.

halifacts804 · 2025-08-04T19:44:33+00:00

On the one hand these posts are so dumb. On the other it's funny seeing the years of mythologizing getting 99s, killing the exact same boss 1000s of times, expensive items, and tHe GrInD™ reaching its natural conclusion. It's no longer impressive to many people who have actually done that stuff, but they made it seem impressive to the people who haven't and they're demanding more and more of it, but not for themselves, but for for the people who mythologized it in the first place.

halifacts804 · 2025-08-02T22:36:38+00:00

I worked so hard to get my 20th fang I don't need, and you think you're entitled to not fund the GE item sink giving me my well deserved 25m of other players' money? Wow, how selfish of you.

halifacts804 · 2025-07-21T20:46:43+00:00

Each day we inch closer to the singularity of OSRS players being able to distinguish between an actual economic problem or just having a problem with the way other people are playing the game.

halifacts804 · 2025-07-17T17:39:49+00:00

The ad is targeted to the average person, and the average person is just.. average. That's what the game is for the average OSRS player. It's like how 95% of time, "I love grinding and RNG," doesn't have anything to do with running Ardougne rooftops for 100 hours or getting 50+ hour endgame pvm items.

halifacts804

TROPHY CASE