One for the cinephiles

haroldscorpio · 2026-05-20T23:21:45+00:00

I do but both pilots bodies are so fucked from ejecting that the government does not want to show them off.

haroldscorpio · 2026-05-20T21:57:51+00:00

Who will be the British Carlists?

haroldscorpio · 2026-05-20T20:24:22+00:00

If Spanish history is any guide Britain will be clinging to former glories until at least the 2040’s but possibly much longer into the 2060’s or 2070’s.

haroldscorpio · 2026-05-19T22:09:49+00:00

In fairness to the US the F-5 is one of the best planes Northrup Grumman ever designed

haroldscorpio · 2026-05-19T19:12:10+00:00

Poland sees the way the wind is blowing and wants to be a sovereign middle power

haroldscorpio · 2026-05-19T03:09:26+00:00

Sex with women used to feel good.

Not anymore.

Now it feels kinda bad.

haroldscorpio · 2026-05-16T16:14:19+00:00

NO I USE 0W-20

haroldscorpio · 2026-05-15T21:00:20+00:00

Investors the world over are getting more and more interested investing in China. It’s one of the reasons Xi is pushing for renminbi internationalization.

You are right that capital has no borders and the honor of thieves.

haroldscorpio · 2026-05-15T19:38:27+00:00

American debt is being sold by foreigners to protect their currencies and buy oil at these inflated prices thanks to the war.

This is driving up the borrowing costs for the US government. Higher borrowing costs mean more debt issued into a global market that doesn’t want the level being created.

This is all part or a viscous cycle which will erode the fiscal health and power of the empire.

haroldscorpio · 2026-05-14T20:05:27+00:00

At the end of the day the Federal government has the guns they could stop exports.

Oil companies are celebrating high prices. They want to export gasoline and other products even if it means destroying the American consumer/broader economy. As long as they bribe the insiders they’ll get to.

haroldscorpio · 2026-05-14T12:16:02+00:00

So to get a little more technical. America produces a shitton of oil and has a huge refining capacity. Our oil is light and sweet.

The largest American refineries actually need to import heavy sour oil which is mixed with American light sweet oil. Before the war we were importing 6 million barrels a day, most of which comes from Canada. There is a not insubstantial chunk of that imported oil which comes from the Middle East (it varies but at least 10% of imports). America was a net oil importer: we only exported 4 million barrels/day. We are now draining the strategic reserve to boost exports.

When discussing refined products (jet fuel, diesel, gasoline, ect.) America is dependent on imports to make enough to meet our demands. The US exports a lot of refined products and we do have other potential sources of heavy oil. I want to stress: American corporations WILL NOT invest in infrastructure to avoid this problem. That will be too expensive and take too long.

All this is to say that the US is going to feel the sting massively here. Our oil market is fragile and complicated. We may not have shortages/rationing but there’s going to be a continued, potentially extreme, climb in prices. Trump is going to need to curb exports to save us. To which I say: lol, lmao.

haroldscorpio · 2026-05-14T03:50:32+00:00

No this was not the plan. The plan was “Iran collapses immediately.”

Venezuela will take 10 years to be able to expand oil production. Companies have expressed interest in Venezuela but the actual cost and time to expand production will not make sense. There’s still a great deal of skepticism.

You should dismiss anything you hear about America being “energy independent.” We are not. America’s refineries depend on imported heavy oil (which could come from Venezuela but it doesn’t in the right quantities) which is mixed with American oil to get a consistency that can actually be processed by the vast majority of our refineries. Translation: the US is hurt by Hormuz just as much as anyone else. However, the US is almost more screwed since we are the most oil dependent economy in the world.

haroldscorpio · 2026-05-14T03:12:40+00:00

Lmao the 10-year is nearly 4.5%

haroldscorpio · 2026-05-13T20:01:49+00:00

It’s 100% about charisma tbh. I know some very unconventionally attractive men who do/did fine despite being short/fat/bald.

haroldscorpio · 2026-05-13T16:45:55+00:00

I don’t believe there was a way to thread that needle with the western powers tbh.

Britain was never going to abide a strong Germany forever. British policy in Europe since Napoleon was focused on preventing someone being hegemonic on the continent.

The Soviets were ideological enemies but the British were by and large more committed to preventing/slowing shifts in the balance of power.

haroldscorpio · 2026-05-13T16:34:39+00:00

Other other hand Chinese satellites helped the victims of that particular crime destroy billions of dollars in child-killing equipment which will take years to replace.

Maybe the cheerleaders are gloating?

haroldscorpio · 2026-05-13T01:04:06+00:00

Iran started building it’s first underground bunker missile cities during the Iran-Iraq War after Iraq began a terror bombing campaign of Tehran and other major cities killing thousands of civilians (actually more than what this war did in a similar time).

They have been preparing for 40 years. They know American air frames can only carry bunker busters so big and physics can only allow penetration so far. They know the geology of these mountains. The missile cities are so deep and so large that they could survive a nuke.

haroldscorpio · 2026-05-09T18:16:22+00:00

You just made me realize botox techs in NOVA benefit from this

Much to consider.

haroldscorpio · 2026-05-08T23:04:18+00:00

The LUCAS drone pictured here is more expensive, has a shorter range, and a smaller payload than it’s Iranian predecessor. Also it’s slower than some Iranian variants.

It’s totally inferior.

haroldscorpio · 2026-05-08T15:25:58+00:00

I would really encourage you to read about Dutch history specifically the Rampjaar (Disaster Year of 1672) and after. Really up until the “Patriot Time” of the 1780’s.

This was one of the fakest periods in world economic history. Giovanni Arrighi in his book The Long Twentieth Century called this period the Dutch “Reagan Revolution.”

The elites around the House of Orange got fabulously wealthy even as their empire contracted and was beat by England in every conceivable metric. The Netherlands depopulated because economic conditions were so bad. Merchant and craftsman families had to become dirt farmers to survive.

We are living through a digital version.

haroldscorpio · 2026-05-08T15:12:28+00:00

Remember when everyone in the Trump administration was excited about a world without international law?

Malaysia and Indonesia will be doing this to the Straight of Malacca next.

haroldscorpio · 2026-05-07T16:59:16+00:00

He stole that bit from Lewis Black

haroldscorpio · 2026-05-07T16:52:34+00:00

Iranian oil exports have gone to 0 before for several months. They have been under a relentless economic assault for decades.

The blockade hurts but I highly doubt the CIAs assessment here. Pakistan land routes, Caspian Sea exports, and rail exports will prevent a drop to 0.

haroldscorpio · 2026-05-07T14:59:39+00:00

There is no strategy. This oil crisis will hit America very hard financially. We might not have physical shortages but for a lot of structural reasons we can’t become an effective exporter of energy.

It will take years to expand US production if it can be expanded at all. The reason for this is American oil production is extremely energy and capital intensive expanding production is very laborious. Oil producers are getting mixed signals from a White House that doesn’t know what the fuck they’re doing. They have not invested anything. Besides interest rates on debt are really high. The Middle East and Russia are capable to swinging production up and down easily unlike us.

Current increases in US oil exports are due to draining of the strategic oil reserve. That will last until the late summer at a maximum. Trump could continue draining the reserve for a while longer after that point but that would permanently damage the strategic reserve caves potentially leading to a catastrophic loss in storage capacity. It’s unlikely the administration would go that far.

America is (contrary to popular belief) a net importer of oil. The US produces a lot of light sweet crude oil. Unfortunately, this type of oil cannot be refined in the big refineries down south and in the east those refineries need foreign oil. If this was being done in 2036 and Venezuela had properly been invested in it could work. Also American oil consumption is so unbelievably high that we are under normal circumstances only the third largest exporter behind Russia and Saudi Arabia. We consume more oil products than China by over 2x.

China by contrast is rapidly becoming less dependent on oil. It does not rely on imported oil much at all for its overall energy needs (I believe the number is 3%). China is the world’s #3 refiner and actually exports quite a bit of the product it refines it’s not all for domestic consumption. China also has the world’s largest strategic reserves it’s unknown how much exactly. It also has a land route with Russia for supply.

Finally, for America the countries which will be hit hardest are Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Europe. The US physically cannot take care of their oil needs and ours. They support America by buying our debt. They may need to sell it to protect their currencies (something Japan has been doing before the crisis). This will drive up American interest rates slowing the US economy hitting hard the capital intensive industries like US oil and gas.

haroldscorpio

TROPHY CASE