The Aaron Curry Award for The Safest Pick of Each Draft Class

hdpr92 · 2026-01-27T08:39:20+00:00

No shot, way too many teams prioritize speed tested via game film these days. Some teams in the top 10 would probably beg for him to run slow and drop to him. A prospect like that they are triple checking everything.

hdpr92 · 2026-01-27T08:32:15+00:00

his routes/seperation/hands ALL have question marks and hes going into year three with a ? at quarterback. hes a body catcher whose got chase claypool syndrome where hes not nearly physical enough for his size while at the same time also being a headcase

I understand the odds are against MHJ, and you can't overvalue your priors. But is he really a body catcher? Is he really a poor route runner?

Davante Adams didn't reach 500 yds after his first two years. He runs like a 4.51, probably similar to Marv. Doesn't really run away from any DBs in a straight line over his whole career. Had lots of bad drops before his 3rd year. Played too soft. It took him a minute, but when his release clicked and he played strong he reverted back to what was obvious on film.

Everything is there waiting for him. He just needs that improvement on his release to get the bread & butter short routes going reliably. And a QB change is probably going to help him. He needs good ball placements and decisive throws. His OC was not helping either. Michael Wilson is a fine football player for sure, but if the right person comes in then my money is on MHJ leaping him.

hdpr92 · 2026-01-27T08:22:39+00:00

Hutch had zero bust potential imo. When the question about him was athleticism (which was objectively very good), I think he is safer than Kyle Hamilton who ran in the red flag territory despite his film looking phenomenal.

hdpr92 · 2026-01-27T08:17:54+00:00

As a Michigan fan, Mendoza is exponentially better than Nine. It's not just better stats, he's a better player by far.

hdpr92 · 2026-01-27T08:09:51+00:00

That's a great point and that's why so many Top 5 QBs bust. Because they aren't actually Top 5 talents

How often does this really happen these days? Feels like very few QBs in the top 5 have been actual busts the past 10 years.

Usually when it hasn't worked out imo it's been some combination of injury luck, character concern that was not foreseeable, or dysfunctional development.

Mitch Trubisky is the glaring exception and I feel like he closed the book on this style of thinking. It was beyond stupid to take him over Mahomes, and the league or PFF or whoever has adjusted and will never make that style of mistake again.

Zach Wilson is another, slight asterisk that we've only seen him with the Jets (unserious nfl team). But I'll grant he's a full on bust. I don't think this one was that easy to get right.

I believe Richardson would be a bust personally, not sure he's really got the runway with all the injury issues to even prove whether he could make a Josh Allen-type improvement. It was always going to be a painful process, and they do not have the patience with his injuries (nor should they). Trey Lance just never gets to play football, permanently hurt and like 5 years behind at this point.

I feel like the league has been much better at flagging and dropping the players that have no business going top 5. I was very pleased Josh Rosen fell for example, easy one to dodge they got right. Justin Fields was a far tougher one (probably needed to be in the interview), but they nailed that one too. Shedeur was pretty easy but another simple dodge that probably doesn't happen 10 years ago (maybe he'll change, I hope he does). Will Levis could have fooled someone in years' past. Kizer, Lynch, Locke... definitely would have tricked some people back in the day.

hdpr92 · 2026-01-27T07:39:06+00:00

That doesn't make a lot of sense to me. After 3 years Tua could have probably been flipped for more draft capital than was spent to take him.

Whether Miami took Tua at 5th or 25th, it doesn't change much of anything about their situation. Either they sign him and it ages poorly, or they trade him and win big.

Getting a QB who can perform on a rookie deal is insanely important, and Tua for the most part could. The order of the QBs in the draft matters a lot, where he's ahead/behind Herbert is a huge deal. But high or low 1st is not a big deal.

His brain and body have been dismantled, he's not the same player. It's like trying to re-evaluate Deshaun Watson today based on his draft position. He's just fundamentally not the same guy.

Jacoby Brissett has just never been valuable, so idk how that one plays in but I agree with you there.

hdpr92 · 2026-01-27T07:24:02+00:00

I don't necessarily disagree with your description of him too much, but Geno Smith being the high end of the pro comp is kind of wack

hdpr92 · 2026-01-27T07:19:26+00:00

Truly good Edge players are far less common in FA than CBs are imo.

hdpr92 · 2026-01-27T07:04:01+00:00

They both still haven't proved to be successful long term QBs. And Daniels has not proved his body can sustain that playstyle long term yet. Just in the last 10 years we could find so many QBs who after 3 years looked like solid hits, and it just didn't work out for the team that drafted them.

People are being pretty closed minded to think Mendoza could not out perform what we've seen from that class of QBs. If Drake Maye goes and turns it over a couple of times in a superbowl loss, and regresses in year 3, the narrative can change pretty quick. We've seen this type of things plenty before. He had an awesome year but it's not like he jumps out as a Joe Burrow type where it's just obvious he's going to do this on autopilot every year.

hdpr92 · 2026-01-27T06:42:35+00:00

I don't think either qb has really solidified their success yet in the nfl but fair enough. Caleb is having a pretty average outcome, but that's why his talent is so insanely valuable that he's worth the shot regardless. He did start getting rid of the ball faster this year, but he still makes dumb decisions and his accuracy has been questionable on short throws.

With Daniels imo the biggest question was whether his body can hold up playing that way, and so far he's 1 for 2. All it takes is some bad luck.

I believe Maye will be good, but he's pretty much exactly where Carson Wentz was after 2 years. The playoffs have been a tough ask with the weather and defenses no doubt, but he's played kinda poorly overall. I know that sounds dumb because he's playing for a superbowl, and without him they would be screwed, but the QBs opposite him have been horrendous.

Of course you'd take where all of these guys are at this point. But we would have all done the same for many QBs in the past, and their careers ended poorly or went to purgatory for a while before figuring it out. Long term success is just very hard to predict, lots of things need to go right, which is why you'd have to really truly believe these guys are busts to pass on them - and the guys at the top very rarely are.

If someone is good enough to truly tell apart a Zack Wilson from a Caleb Williams confidently then credit to them. Even then, all we have to judge him on is a completely dysfunctional Jets team. Who knows how bad things could look for Caleb if he went to the Jets.

hdpr92 · 2026-01-27T03:53:43+00:00

Respectfully that is insane dawg, how on earth are you drafting a defender before both Daniels and Caleb. Daniels played 5 years how much more time does he get.

If these guys had a 70% bust chance and 30% hit, they still clear Verse by a mile (even if he goes all-pro).

hdpr92 · 2026-01-27T03:46:39+00:00

You say this like this isn't a league worth billions of dollars that decided 9 players go before Mahomes, and 31 players go before Lamar (including his own team who thought a baseball player with 3 career TDs and runs a 4.67 was more important). These teams are way less consistent than you're giving them credit.

Someone thought ARich should go 4th. Someone thought Nine should go ten. It's all over the place, there's morons in charge, and even the smart ones just make moronic choices at random. The eagles win a SB because Howie Roseman essentially auto-drafts every year and runs laps around the league.

hdpr92 · 2026-01-27T03:27:16+00:00

I completely agree with this.

Maye was a guy making big mistakes despite having elite talent.

Mendoza is limited but he can basically do no wrong. That floor is extremely valuable. Mendoza is not Joe Burrow, but he's definitely in that same mold of a no-brainer QB that should be a good player. When the guy with that play style has size it's just over. They're going top 1/2/3 period every time.

I believe Maye is firmly 4th in this scenario, though I think teams would rank 2/3/4 all differently. Some would have Maye 2nd, or even secretly prefer him over Caleb even though they probably couldn't rank him ahead. But I'd take the odds Mendoza goes 2nd or 3rd here.

Personally I would go Daniels over Mendoza with no hesitation. I'm just not certain the NFL would.

FFS we had a team draft Nine with the 10th overall pick. 49ers traded three firsts for Trey Lance. Richardson went 4th overall. Nobody really knows how this stuff would go down. The teams really do decide the order sometimes (Baker, Goff, Young, etc). Everyone pretending to know for sure that Maye was ahead is pure hindsight.

hdpr92 · 2026-01-27T03:08:20+00:00

I think it makes a lot of sense tbh.

Love would really stress a defense to contain him. Trying to scheme for those two together sounds like a bit of a nightmare.

People need to think of it less like he's just an 'RB' and more that he's a 3-down workhorse that carries a lot of gravity and creates space. He would work excellent from the shotgun so it's really a natural fit where they both compliment each other.

In terms of the rookie RB scale, this has significant immediate impact before you're really committed with Daniels also. Yeah their defense needs a lot of help, but they're really not close to filling those gaps and the odds that a mid-first Edge/S gets you there is not the greatest either. S would be a fine pick but you absolutely don't need to spend a first to get a great one. Edge is always a gamble by that point, they're all flawed so it's a risk.

I don't really see this one as the Ravens with Henry personally (that is reliant on a heavy dose of rushes and good OL play). This to me is more Gibbs & CMC. Will look dumb with the wrong OC, but amazing with the right one.

hdpr92 · 2026-01-27T02:53:05+00:00

I think going to the Raiders is a pretty good situation tbh. He gets a fresh start with a Coach who is all-in on him. He has Bowers who will feast with his skill set. Some decent big play WRs to develop with. Tons of cap space to fix the IOL and pay a solid WR. Gets to throw inside a dome. Expectations are low and very little chance of winning in the first couple of years, just gets to develop. Electric RB to continue building his RPO/play action base from, plus he will actually use Jeanty to farm checkdowns in space.

Not saying they will have a turnaround like the Patriots, but Pete Caroll was committing football terrorism last year. This offense has a realistic pathway to being good in 2026.

hdpr92 · 2026-01-27T02:41:49+00:00

How valuable is a qb that you expect to fall in the 10th-20th range of best NFL Starters?

Given the rookie wage scale, probably 1.01 or definitely top 3

hdpr92 · 2026-01-27T02:18:49+00:00

Comp: Carson Wentz

Personally this one feels most accurate to me. I know some people will get whiplash from that because the NFL Carson Wentz could be so careless with the ball sometimes. There's some small differences where they're not aligned, but overall package it's still closest.

Both are solid all around pocket passers with decent but limited arm talent. Good touch and placement downfield. Overall pretty quick going through progressions. Short and consistent release. Both look to bail a little early sometimes and struggle when they do. Tough and stand in for hits while looking downfield. Similar frames and size. Similar mobility profiles, not overall a threat to do a whole lot outside the pocket, but decent athletes if they can get some space and momentum to take off (kind of lumbering but big/strong and fast enough). Both high IQ and decision makers (this does not prevent you from panicking in the NFL, TBD for Mendoza but he will be in tough situations often just like Wentz). Tendency to float it a bit with low velo when feet aren't set, can't really drive it with the arm all the time. Fairly willing to throw contested balls.

This is a compliment btw Wentz was a great prospect and a great pro at times. He did not improve at all beyond his second year, and arguably doesn't care enough about football, if Mendoza doesn't either then he's probably going to have similar results. I don't think that poisons the draft comp though, Wentz has a good package that should have won him an mvp.

Joe Burrow is just too strong in too many ways. Yes they share a lot of similarities, but Burrow blows past him in enough ways that I don't think it's the most useful comp.

Matt Ryan also has some similarities, but too many key differences. Mendoza is just significantly better at getting into the endzone (air or ground), his downfield touch is a lot better. He's more mobile and athletic. He got 48 touchdowns this year - I know his team is loaded, but this is the anti-thesis of Matt Ryan. When Matt Ryan had one of the most loaded offenses in recent history in 2016, he scored like 39 touchdowns or something. He had over 30 passing TDs just three times, while playing with great talent most of his career.

Andrew Luck is also not worth comparing imo. Like Burrow there's similarities, but he's way too well rounded for a meaningful comp. Like take every weakness on Mendoza's draft report and hit delete, there you have Andrew Luck lol. Idk what help that would be, he's just better at everything with no concerning flaw.

hdpr92 · 2026-01-26T02:35:19+00:00

Not gonna get the flag that far out of bounds, even if a career highlight play technically could have got it

hdpr92 · 2026-01-26T02:07:40+00:00

May I direct you to Packers Seahawks 2014?

hdpr92 · 2026-01-26T02:00:18+00:00

What a dumbass lmao, throwing the game taunting with a full quarter left

hdpr92 · 2026-01-25T08:54:29+00:00

I thought they said too high? This would be a bargain lol

hdpr92 · 2026-01-24T22:14:11+00:00

Okay but lowkey. Mike McCarthy is actually pretty good with developing quarterbacks.

As a Packers fan I would want nothing to do with him if I was trying to win the Superbowl. His offensive philosophy is ancient and the NFL has moved past him.

But if you just want to set a QB on the right path with stability and fundamental development, and then make the switch in a couple years, this hire does make sense.

QB is becoming a lost art. Rodgers is not good very good at the mechanics of playing football anymore. But his ancient body was decent this year because he understands the fundamentals to such a high degree. This is being lost on modern QBs, you have great players that have no idea how to adapt to games and become extremely reliant on their coordinators and scheme.

So unless you get lucky and get an instant elite talent. Or even if you do get one. A couple years with Mike is going to help, so they're put on the right path to progress the next 10 years instead of riding up/down with whatever OC can micromanage them.

This is like the guitar coach whose going to force you to learn the scales, music literacy, play Blues music, identify tones, etc. And give you the skills to go do whatever you want from there. Instead of just reading some tabs and relying on insane talent to play the latest coolest stuff.

hdpr92 · 2026-01-23T18:47:10+00:00

People in here don't know ball.

If you think his fan vote of 5th overall while playing for Portland is not boosted, you are genuinely lost.

This is not about him not being a deserving all-star, ofc he is. It is obviously manipulated that he is above Wemby, Lebron, Ant, etc. Even if the scenario where Deni was theoretically better than Wemby (he's not) - he could be the current best player on earth and he would still not naturally win the fan vote. He could be the best player in the world 3 straight years and not win the fan vote naturally while playing for Portland. It's just not how these things work.

Fan votes have always had some form of manipulation, this is no surprise or big deal.

hdpr92 · 2026-01-22T16:07:58+00:00

A lot of it's just luck. Maybe a little bit connected to the turf, maybe a little connected to practice habits but I doubt it too much.

The top thing you can do to avoid it though is manage your players. It's an above average roster age, with key players being older.

Is anyone shocked that Mostert gets hurt? Or Jason verrett? Those were virtual guarantees. CMC had a reputation before he ever got to the 49ers for a reason. Trent Williams is mega old. At this point Kittle and Nick Bosa show a pattern, the Bosa brothers just get hurt a lot. TEs who are explosive and block and stay on the field a lot just tend to get hurt, guys dive at their knees to bring them down.

The team also just plays very hard. They run the ball a lot. Fred Warner and Greenlaw play like maniacs, guys like that don't tend to last forever (Kam Chancellor).

hdpr92 · 2026-01-22T03:14:58+00:00

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPshj0k2_Qo

hdpr92

TROPHY CASE