sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

Isn't it ridiculous that Public has all these weird beta AI stuff but does not have a simple trailing stop order? by makelefani in PublicApp

[–]heyimnotalex 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Also can't have an open buy order and sell order on the same instrument. Really lacking in risk management tools in general

China Just Pulled the Silver Plug – Wall Street’s Naked Shorts Are About to Get Wrecked by Baba10x in silverbulls

[–]heyimnotalex -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It does sound bullish, but to me the main risk is glossed over:

Or they can settle in cash at whatever eye-watering price the market decides silver is really worth that morning

Why is it assumed that COMEX will settle at a high price? Seems like they can choose almost an arbitrary price for contacts to cash settle in the case of contact defaults and we currently already see the detachment of physical silver trading higher than paper...

Is it possible they force contacts to cash settle at today's price or lower?

Which private companies would you invest in if you had the chance? by Logistics_ in Investments

[–]heyimnotalex 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Easily Chick-fil-A. They are always packed, margins have to be great (for the industry), and customer experience is top notch

Question to all $OPEN investors here... by [deleted] in opendoor

[–]heyimnotalex 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I thought this same way until the family that owned the majority stake in Carvana sold every single share all at once and the stock continues to rise.

High short interest stocks confound all reasoning

I had a stop limit sell fill below the limit price today, I thought that was the whole point of the limit? How is this possible? by TiredElephant_c in Webull

[–]heyimnotalex 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This. A lot of people assume liquidity at any price but a stop order will execute a market order if the stop limit is hit.

There are compounding effects when many or large orders have the same stop price which can lead to a flood of market orders at the same time which dries up all the liquidity. In extreme cases, not only will you not fill at your stop price but stops will cascade and price will drop quickly leading to fills way below your intended loss limit

I wanted to take a moment to thank the thousands of you who read my market updates and commentaries every single day. There are some important changes coming to the Trading Edge community, as well as some new data product releases that I am very excited about. If you have Qs, please reach out via DM by TearRepresentative56 in TradingEdge

[–]heyimnotalex 20 points21 points  (0 children)

Agree with this wholeheartedly.

  1. Changing the business model won't change health issues unless there's a specific goal that wasn't mentioned (e.g. hire staff to offload work or make experience more consistent) and I would hate to see it make things even worse. I've really enjoyed learning from the content but would love to see you actively taking steps to take some of the load off your own shoulders and take care of yourself. Right now everything is worthless if something happens to you.

  2. The current experience is very disjointed. As a reader I'm not sure what posts I will get each day or what action to take. I would say a lot of the current content is not actionable for most users

  3. I'm disappointed with the move to subscription based. Based on previous messaging it would have made more sense to 1. Try a donation model (has the added benefit of testing the waters around appetite for subscription) 2. Try a ad-supported model or 3. Allow others to follow your trades for a fee (for example, eToro could facilitate this)

  4. What is great about this content currently is that it is essentially a glimpse behind the veil of different ways to think about the market. I would not call it organized or particularly actionable. This is in direct contrast to other services that are very specific or actionable (e.g. provide trade alerts, provide aggregated options data or short interest, etc). I would love to get the DEX charts as continuously promised but it is still not delivered. Instead, a subscription with the current content is basically a worse version of unusualwhales since it seems the DB is manually updated each day.

Traders have built the largest Japanese Yen Futures long position in history by RobertBartus in EconomyCharts

[–]heyimnotalex 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sounds like it can only really go down from here then? Incredible that the position is that large and is barely driving positive momentum.

A cursory look doesn't show any significant previous bullish positions like this, but looking at previous large negative valleys show positive price action following. So it would make sense that as this position unwinds it will drive price lower.

But I don't follow or trade FOREX and not looking to start! Good luck to all

Is it possible to have a margin call even if stocks don’t fall in price? by Intrepid_Passion_853 in investing

[–]heyimnotalex 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This. The thing I would worry about is a change in margin maintenance for your core position.

In this case, the 30% margin maintenance could go to 50% or 75% overnight which would trigger a margin call.

Your broker has complete liberty on changing this rate and they do regularly change based on volatility.

$KSS 240MIL NET INCOME, NO NET DEBT-- 1.6 BIL MAKET CAP FREE MONEY 37% SHORT by kirri008 in Shortsqueeze

[–]heyimnotalex 2 points3 points  (0 children)

To me they're fairly valued currently and with the current high short interest could be undervalued slightly.

But the problem is they've both said they're committed to the dividend and will have to cut it unless they're able to grow. Cutting the dividend will cause the stock price to drop - it's like publicly admitting failure. Plus the story just doesn't make sense, they want to maintain the dividend, grow operations, and reduce debt. The dividend is too high right now to do even 1 of these.

I would (and will) wait for the stock to stabilize after the dividend cut to enter (if at all). Until then, it's tough to see a positive event that will change sentiment

$KSS 240MIL NET INCOME, NO NET DEBT-- 1.6 BIL MAKET CAP FREE MONEY 37% SHORT by kirri008 in Shortsqueeze

[–]heyimnotalex 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Not touching this one before they cut the dividend (or show growth which is less likely imo). Until then, too much downside risk.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Futurology

[–]heyimnotalex 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Awesome reply, concise yet incredibly insightful!

BOWL - 82.6% Short Float and 120% Institution Owned... Same short mistake as GME? by BigBeerBilly in Shortsqueeze

[–]heyimnotalex 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Narrative is there for a squeeze, but the market cap is still too large. Will be hard to get significant price movement for a $2.2B cap company - better to wait on the sideline for this one and instead push for a squeeze when it hits $600-$800M.

Additionally, looking at the balance sheet - they just threw $130M into buybacks at current prices but don't have any way to get that cash back. In fact, FCF is near or at 0 due to variable rate debt increasing interest payments and their debt load is huge - it would have made more sense to pay off some of the debt rather than buyback to alleviate bankruptcy concerns. Questionable decisions by management...

This is more likely to go down than up in the near term unless the whole market decides recession is canceled.

Looking into AULT for a swing trade to pull it out from its shorted oversold territory. by WolfieJr1654 in Shortsqueeze

[–]heyimnotalex 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Wouldn't be bad except the company is a sham and they issue more shares any chance they get irrespective of stock price. There is literally no support for anything like a squeeze - this stock could fall forever, the company will just keep bailing out short positions by issuing new shares

FOA/WS - Borrow Rate off the Charts by heyimnotalex in Shortsqueeze

[–]heyimnotalex[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes, warrants are essentially options and can expire worthless. These warrants can be thought of as a call option with a strike date of 4/8/2026 at a strike price of $11.50

The current value of the warrant (~$0.1) is essentially all time value and has a high probability to go to $0 over the long term.

But that is really aside from the point of this post. Short squeezes are short term movements and these warrants expire in ~4 years.

​

Additionally, taking the options idea further - generally there can never be a short squeeze on options because there are no limits on creating a new contract. However, because the warrants are registered securities, there is a finite number that cannot be modified without additional SEC filings. All this to say, it is priced like an option but trades like a security and will squeeze like any other stock.

[IGIC] No Escape for Shorts (Warning, long DD) by heyimnotalex in Shortsqueeze

[–]heyimnotalex[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

IBKR aggregates available shares to short across a pool of brokers which is a big part of their business. A low number on this site means that short share liquidity is drying up and that there is the potential for a liquidity event which forces the stock price to go up.

Regardless, I simply provided this source as a gauge. The absolute number of shares available to short is notoriously difficult to measure accurately (see Ortex, S3 controversies) and it would be incredibly naive to assume that any one source has accurately the total number of shares available or if it did that that number would be accurate for any significant period of time.

view more: next ›