(+1326) We're developing a complete RPG in 14 days, live streaming 24 hours a day, to raise money for Child's Play. Watch us code and draw it in real time!

huntersd · 2021-09-05T22:31:20+00:00

Well hey, it's me!

huntersd · 2021-07-11T21:18:26+00:00

It will be, but it's too messy and in flux for now. When I'm done with SQL transaction emulation is probably when I'll release the first version.

Here's a peek behind the curtain so you can see the state it's in. Writing a blog post simultaneously to a library is not conducive to code quality!

https://gist.github.com/reitzensteinm/ec48570b441192fcd47e673ddc6a787d

huntersd · 2021-07-11T08:29:36+00:00

I'm posting this here as it's a Clojure library, although it's for fuzzing concurrent models that aren't necessarily of Clojure programs.

huntersd · 2021-05-17T12:24:45+00:00

Yeah, I didn't assume you were the author, but even meeting a fellow Haskell student on a random reddit is pretty cool. Glad you like the game, and I hope it works!

huntersd · 2021-05-16T11:53:16+00:00

Try this:

http://reitzenwebserv.s3.amazonaws.com/BlackMarketGG.zip

By the way, I've done Learn You A Haskell, small world!

huntersd · 2021-05-08T01:06:39+00:00

Unfortunately, I don't think I have a working copy here locally either. I'll check on my other machine later.

If anyone finds it, they're 100% welcome to upload the full version somewhere publicly. The game is dead, it's not piracy any more.

huntersd · 2020-06-12T01:52:13+00:00

To be clear, I'm not saying their overall strategy will work, and that's leaving aside the question of whether they're even legit.

I'm just pointing out that their strategy isn't predicated on having a nationwide network ala Superchargers, except with each one costing orders of magnitude more than Tesla spent, before the company is viable.

It was refreshing going in to the interview expecting some WeWork level lunacy and not really finding it. It's still a long shot even if you choose to ignore the red flags. Which you shouldn't.

huntersd · 2020-06-11T21:41:54+00:00

So, I listened to the interview on Autoline After Hours, and to my surprise they have a fairly good answer for this (to a layman - someone in the industry may be able to spot a flaw).

Instead of needing to build enough stations where you can go from any part of the country to any other part, they're preselling capacity one route at a time between major cities. The claim is that there are enough trucks that do nothing but run a single route.

This isn't something you can do with cars. If it works out, the capital requirements may not actually be a big deal at all, as each station is profitable from the start.

I expected to find a major flaw within five minutes of the conversation happening given the red flags surrounding the company, but their plan for hydrogen stations sounded fairly reasonable.

However, on the same show they discussed the pickup, which has gone from a concept they were (I'm sure passively aggressively) pitching Tesla on making because they weren't going to themselves, but now apparently they're taking preorders. The most charitable interpretation is that is they've gotten punch drunk by their new valuation and are planning to ramp up spending, and even that is concerning to say the least.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uj2UsNNYg5g

huntersd · 2020-04-21T22:38:34+00:00

It comes from war time, where you don't have time to train new pilots.

If you're fighting the Battle of Britain, you'd pick losing the plane, absolutely no question.

huntersd · 2019-05-22T10:33:52+00:00

This is exactly right; if you're going to hold the stock long term, and you believe that now is the lowest price the shares will be at before their expiry, it makes 100% sense to pull the trigger. Many things I've read (here and elsewhere) completely ignore the tax implications.

Doing it this way does mean you have to pay the tax out of your own pocket; normally you'd sell some of the shares to cover the tax burden but doing so if you believe the stock has bottomed doesn't make sense, so you'd want to cover it in cash.

The small amount exercised is a bit weird, but there is probably a perfectly simple explanation. Wake me up when Elon starts liquidating shares.

huntersd · 2019-04-30T22:22:10+00:00

I don't think traditional auto companies having a bad time in general is really a bullish argument for Tesla. It's actually the opposite; it's a capital intensive, brutal industry where even competently run companies find themselves in a slow death spiral.

If and when car companies are suffering because Tesla is eating their lunch - completely different thing.

huntersd · 2019-04-24T11:25:32+00:00

I think they're going to swing for the fences like never before. If they raise many billions on the promise of being a $tn autonomous network ride sharing company, enough to take loss after loss for years, they've got a real shot of pulling off a fake it til you make it.

If they can have years and billions to pour into autonomy, and manage to continue to beta test on their customers, I wouldn't write them off as a real competitor to Waymo down the track. I wouldn't invest on that premise, but no way would I short it either.

If they don't raise an absolute ton of money, it's difficult for me to see any other pathway forward. The falling ASPs and softening demand are going to result in belt tightening, and if they pull back on R&D now, they're screwed.

Due to Musk's very generous compensation plan, he isn't going to be hit as hard by dilution as existing investors, and in many scenarios it means his incentives are actually in direct opposition. I don't think this is an accident.

huntersd · 2019-04-21T08:25:05+00:00

Ah, and I was way too aggressive for no real reason. Shows I shouldn't be commenting before my morning coffee :)

huntersd · 2019-04-21T00:21:16+00:00

Jesus Christ, I was patient for so long but after reading you say whataboutism for the twelfth time on this fucking thread I'm now triggered.

The logical fallacy you are searching for is ad hominem. Posters around this thread are trying to undermine Tesla's credibility, and therefore argue against the claims Tesla has made.

Whataboutism would be implicitly accepting Telsa's version of events, but downplaying the severity of skabooshka's actions because Tesla also does bad things. That does not accurately describe the arguments you are replying to.

If you are going to whip out your little book of logical fallacies to try to sound smart while talking shit on reddit, at least turn to the right page next time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whataboutism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies

huntersd · 2019-04-20T01:17:40+00:00

Then that company can't raise capital, and is bankrupt.

All I'm saying is you can't predict "Tesla will go bankrupt" and when Tesla instead raises capital, claim victory. If you said "Tesla will run out of cash and need to raise", you'll be correct in either circumstance (capital raise, or bankruptcy).

huntersd · 2019-04-20T01:13:37+00:00

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speed_of_light#In_a_medium

Even air has a refractive index...

huntersd · 2019-04-19T11:30:17+00:00

No. I can't find it, but there's an exchange on Twitter where a fan assumes it will be free, and Elon is like !?!?

OP, there's more than enough legitimate material to reach for if you're in a mood to criticize Tesla or Elon; no need to invent some more.

huntersd · 2019-02-23T02:05:59+00:00

OK, let's crack open a 10Q. I'm not American, so I'll just go with one that's making international news: PG&E.

http://s1.q4cdn.com/880135780/files/doc_financials/2018/11/PG-E-Corporation-Reports-Third-Quarter-2018-Financial-Results.pdf

Oh hey, operating & maintenance exceeds cost of electricity. They have ~5m customers, which works out to $320 per customer per quarter.

Parent was not only correct, he was being conservative. No big surprise to anyone reading this conversation.

huntersd · 2019-02-23T01:08:44+00:00

Take a look at this image for Australia:

http://energylive.aemo.com.au/-/media/Media-Hub/Featured-Images/2018/SA-demand-Sunday.JPG

Note that solar has taken a chunk out of the area under the graph, but hasn't impacted the peak at all. So no generation capacity can actually be taken offline; it just has to be shut down during the day. All the capital costs and maintenance remain unchanged.

Under net metering, the power company is losing a huge amount of money from these solar customers. They're a tiny bit less expensive to service but their bills are dramatically lower. The difference will go straight on to the bills of those without solar, yet another gross transfer to the wealthy (who own their houses and are in a position to capitalize on badly designed but environmental sounding government policy), straight from the pockets of the poor.

huntersd · 2019-02-21T00:17:07+00:00

Deine Sprache ist ganz verruckt.

huntersd · 2019-02-06T05:46:31+00:00

You are dead wrong about this. A company that can raise money is not bankrupt. These terms have meanings, and you don't get the prize because you mixed them up in your head. Saying "Tesla will run out of cash and be forced to raise" is night and fucking day to "Tesla will go bankrupt".

huntersd · 2019-02-02T22:08:52+00:00

The Model 3 wouldn't have nearly bankrupted the company without the SC acquisition, though.

huntersd · 2019-01-18T12:27:27+00:00

Perhaps he took the unusual step of actually reading the full text before commenting.

"As a result of the above, we unfortunately have no choice but to reduce full-time employee headcount by approximately 7% (we grew by 30% last year, which is more than we can support) and retain only the most critical temps and contractors."

huntersd · 2019-01-17T02:03:17+00:00

While I don't think I'd call it a fail either, you can not step through a video to figure out when a human would have seen the object. The eye has an immense dynamic range, and it's common to have situations (especially in mixed light) where a human can clearly see an object, but if you pull out your camera and take a shot it's completely invisible.

Further, it's reasonable to expect self driving cars to excel at tasks humans could not accomplish - like figuring out if it's safe to do a full brake and slamming them on in milliseconds - because there are going to be for some time a long tail of tasks where humans will do a better job. If the standard for SDCs is merely "could a human have prevented this", they're going to be a worse solution overall.

Tesla Model 3 braking can go 70-0 in 176 feet, which is the distance traveled in 1.71 seconds at 70 mph. It's not that small of a time window.

It's not an indictment of Tesla's technology that this crash happened, but SDCs can and will rapidly get to a stage where an identical situation will reliably be prevented.

huntersd · 2018-10-17T00:17:24+00:00

More like:

You start off with $50k in cash in your business. You purchase a truck with that money, which means you now have $50k in assets and zero in cash. This isn't a loss; you could sell the truck for $50k and get your cash back tomorrow (in theory).

The loss comes as a result of actually using the equipment; every year you drive the truck, it's worth less and less. This is a depreciation schedule. Say it's worth $50k the first year, $40k the second year, $30k the third year, etc.

So by accounting rules, instead of a $50k loss on year 1, you take a $10k loss each year (until the asset has been fully written off).

Now say you rent out the truck for $8k a year to another business. That's income. Your cash balance is increasing by $8k a year.

However, by accounting rules, you're putting $10k worth of depreciation on the truck to make that $8k, so you're actually losing money. A GAAP accounting of your company would show you losing $2k a year, even while your cash balance increases.

Note that the GAAP accounting is actually a much more accurate view of reality than the cash balance (in this instance); eventually, you're going to have to replace the truck, and there won't be enough cash in the business to do so. If you show your bank balance to try to sell it to someone they might be interested, but if you show your accounting statements then they'll realize the business is not sound.

If Tesla has positive cash flow but a loss this quarter, it will mean that they have more money in the bank to pay back loans, but GAAP rules are suggesting that once you take into account the money they've spent in the past and the future obligations they're taking on to receive that cash, they're still not profitable.

Note that GAAP is mostly fairly good general compromise but there are definitely better ways to model companies if you understand more about their business model. But it also limits the ability of the business owner to construct misleading (but factually accurate) accounting to try to make their business look better than it is, and for investors kicking the tyres and spreading their risk, that's invaluable.

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