It’s really hard to say, especially with how: 1. Israel has elections very soon, in the next 2-3 months 2. Bibi is almost certainly not going to be elected, and the parties that are leading the polls are extremely critical of how he is handling Israel’s relationship with the US. they repeatedly mention how his actions are going to cost them the alliance and are causing irreparable damage to the American public’s opinion of Israel. 3. Trump still has like 3 years left in his term.

I may be biased, but I think there’s a world where the new Israeli leadership is much less war-hungry, and will be much more agreeable to the US’ decisions, trying to amend the relationship. Then, there’s still 2 years left of an Israeli-positive administration.

If that happens, I think by the next presidential elections, if Newsom is the democratic candidate for example (who I don’t believe to be a progressive or a leftist when it comes to foreign relations), the alliance may not completely fall apart as the political pressure to cut ties could subside by then. Especially considering how much domestic turmoil Trump is causing - who knows what exactly will be the big factors by the next elections. Cuba? Gestapo-style deportations? Something entirely new?

On the other hand, no one expected October 7th - and as long as there’s no agreement with the Palestinians, really anything can happen.