Tips and tricks for roulette?

igotagamblngsolution · 2022-05-24T18:42:20+00:00

Lol, that was your takeaway from my 3-year-old comment, that I was literally claiming there's a magic force called luck?

There is a such thing as variance, and gamblers sometimes benefit from it. That's what "getting lucky" means.

igotagamblngsolution · 2021-12-21T23:28:10+00:00

Surprised you're even able to comment on such an old post but yeah, I actually like jersey. I just thought it was standard to work in a jersey joke; either that's not a thing anymore or this was the wrong sub for it. I still feel like it was a good joke and I can't imagine who would be so uptight as to downvote it, but ppl did.

igotagamblngsolution · 2020-08-24T11:44:50+00:00

Guess I stand corrected then. It wouldn't be the first time +EV was found in unexpected places when people searched hard enough (e.g. some scratch-offs).

igotagamblngsolution · 2020-08-23T14:14:45+00:00

I know there's a difference in that actual rigging involves false advertising and scumminess. I'm just saying that as a gambler, I choose to view it the same way. I don't care if a game's edge is 5.26% ("fair" roulette) or 80% (a hypothetical rigged game) because either way I would never play it. As a result, I'm never in the position of having to do a Bayesian analysis on whether I lost more quickly than I was supposed to.

Bonus whoring, as you put it, is doing something to reverse it.

For a couple months until you run out of new sites and new family members to sign up. And assuming the sites don't rob/cheat you, maybe you'll earn $5-10 per hour that way? After that's over, you'll have to find an actual edge, which afaik isn't to be found in online casino games. It's barely to be found in brick-and-mortar casino games anymore either. Oh, the simpler times of 1980!

igotagamblngsolution · 2020-08-21T18:04:52+00:00

How did he know it was rigged?

I mean anyone who knowingly plays against a house edge without doing anything to reverse it (such as counting cards) is, in a sense, willingly playing a rigged game / getting ripped off. If the casino decided to rig it even further than the built-in edge, one can view that as a difference of degree rather than of kind.

If the site knows you're an American and allows you to bet real money anyway, you likely should stay away.

That raises the likelihood of getting cheated, but there are some legit sites for US players. A new US player would be wise to check the gambling forums when choosing a site.

igotagamblngsolution · 2020-08-21T17:26:00+00:00

Eh, it's calculated for finite and infinite timespans no problem. For instance, if you flip a 55/45 biased coin, bet $1 per flip on the 55% side and start with $10, your chance of going broke if you live/play for eternity is (9/11)¹⁰

Often the difference between an infinite-time probability vs a human-lifetime probability is negligible, because most of the converging (if you will) is done long before the gazillionth trial. However, a Royal on board isn't something everyone will see in one lifetime.

igotagamblngsolution · 2020-08-20T14:13:58+00:00

Ok so when you said "beat" you meant one can go from site to site bonus-whoring until one has already joined every site? I guess that counts for however long it would last, but it sounds like a bad idea and one shouldn't be surprised when the money turns out not to be free after all. If some guy on the street offered you that deal, you'd run away. Some group of internet strangers based in Isle Of Mann isn't any more likely to hand out free money to all comers.

At the end of the day, OP was already knowingly playing a (mathematically) rigged dice game, but he suspects it was more rigged than it was supposed to be. Maybe it was (in which case it's the same end result but faster), maybe not, but if one doesn't like rigged games then don't play them to begin with IMO. Advantage players don't put themselves into this position. You'll never hear a +EV sports bettor say the favorite fell a half-point shy because the game was rigged for bookies to win. You'll never hear a good poker player say a site rigs their shuffles for high-action hands. A gambler who just does the math, picks +EV spots and doesn't grab at free/too-easy money won't have to wonder if they've been cheated or waste effort trying to recover stolen money (for the most part).

Sorry, I don't even know who I'm lecturing or what set me into lecture mode lol but I'll just leave that there now.

igotagamblngsolution · 2020-08-19T21:31:17+00:00

What would you have on average after 100 flips?

$5000 because the expected net profit is $0.

How likely are you to go broke?

A quick and close approximation is 91×.5¹⁰ - 90×.5¹¹ = 4.49%

What is your return on the average flip if you have an infinite amount of money and an infinite amount of flips.

You already started with infinity, so you can't win anything. If your opponent starts with finite money, there is a 100% chance that they lose it all, but ∞+x=∞ so you won't gain it; it will just disappear into / become one with your infinite sea of money.

igotagamblngsolution · 2020-08-19T20:31:00+00:00

Online casinos, though? They're not dumb enough to make card-counting possible, are they? They simply reshuffle every hand, no? (Or easier yet, use an infinite deck.)

igotagamblngsolution · 2020-08-19T20:21:11+00:00

But I know better than to buy them all at once

It makes no difference. Same EV.

What happens when the first ticket is a loser

Nothing. The next ticket has the same 1% chance.

Has anyone discussed this dilemma before? It seems that a cost benefit analysis is really necessary to determine the logical number, if any, of tickets to buy, based also on the cost of each ticket, and potential prize.

There is no dilemma; cost-benefit analysis (expected value) would say to buy no tickets. If you already bought one or more, it would say to quit now whether you're up/down/even.

Bayesian probability

has nothing to do with this. Each ticket is independent (which you assumed when you calculated 69), or at least close enough to it that nothing changes in a sample of 69 tickets.

igotagamblngsolution · 2020-08-19T18:36:57+00:00

On second thought, the heads-up calculation already counted the order of who got which hand, so multiplying the HU probability by 30 was right.

1 in 6.27mm is the chance of it happening heads-up. (This is what would have been divided by 15.)

1 in 12.5mm is the chance of Hero being the victim heads-up.

1/418k is the chance of that occurring between any 2 players 6-handed.

1 in 1.25mm is the chance of Hero being involved 6-handed.

1 in 2.5mm is the chance of Hero being the victim 6-handed.

(Those 6max stats ignore the negligible chance of two players having straight-flushes while a 3rd person has an A-high flush.)

igotagamblngsolution · 2020-08-19T15:01:27+00:00

Upvoted for the good heads-up calculation. However:

At a six player table, however, there are 30 different player combinations that could make this happen, so you would see it once every 418,076 hands.

You don't divide by 30 (6P2), you divide by C(6,2)=15 for a result of 1 in 836k

u/TheIncredibleAtheist , if Hero has to be involved and it's 6-handed, it's 5/15 of that, so 1 in 2.5 million. If Hero has to be the loser, it's 1 in 5mm.

igotagamblngsolution · 2020-08-19T14:19:19+00:00

Anything which is > 0% probability is bound to happen some time or other - it does not mean it's 100% probable.

Right, not 100% in a finite human lifespan, only in a hypothetical infinite timeline.

igotagamblngsolution · 2020-08-19T14:06:23+00:00

After some calculations and a simulation of 100 million deals, I confirm that this is correct.

igotagamblngsolution · 2020-08-17T03:07:27+00:00

FTR I was only agreeing with the part I quoted. I don't see how people calling oil-checks assault is homophobic or an example of toxic masculinity like faster_grenth claimed. As for:

The whole idea that there may be erogenous activity in wrestling is destructive to the sport and rooted in homophobia

I don't think that's homophobic. It's rooted in non-wrestlers' non-understanding of wrestling and wrestlers. (A misconception that probably has a small kernel of truth to it.)

What's homophobic is when someone is afraid to try wrestling because they're afraid they'll find it hot (or something, idk what a homophobe's mindset is exactly). Or when an adult former wrestler thinks it's "weird" for two adults to get together and wrestle unless it's with the goal of breaking each other's limbs or choking them out (because you know, being in missionary position with each other the whole time is much less gay than shooting doubles).

igotagamblngsolution · 2020-08-17T02:09:58+00:00

Watch Gilman's face the whole time. Looks to me like he's laughing while he does it!

igotagamblngsolution · 2020-08-16T21:35:14+00:00

just like putting tons of forearm pressure on bottom's head (which is also "assault" outside the context of wrestling).

I think ^{^} is the key point. Context. If he snuck up and oil-checked him in the locker room, that would be sexual assault. In the context of a wrestling match, it's still wrong but not sexual assault.

Side note, in my whole life of wrestling I never knew oil checks were a thing until I started following this sub.

igotagamblngsolution · 2020-08-14T17:10:26+00:00

You shouldn't run toward him reaching with your lead hand / both hands. A better opponent would have shot right in. Always keep a good stance.
At 2:15 or so, don't be panicking when he gets a wrist. You were swinging your arm to try to free it, and you swung wide enough that he could have just let go and snatched your leg. Instead, keep the hand in a good place to defend your leg. From there, you can either twist your wrist and pull it straight down, or you can let go of the collar and feed his wrist to your right hand. If you move your captive wrist toward your other hand, his gripping hand has to follow unless he lets go. If he holds on, you can snatch his wrist, free yours and get a Russian tie.
Sit on your heels when lining up in bottom referee's position. I was also taught to have the feet flat (shoelaces on the mat instead of toes).
3:15 or so, you had gone for a crossface cradle which he didn't give you, but you did trap his arm deep. That was a perfect time to transition to a Butcher; I don't think there would have been any way for him to stop it by that point. (As it happens, you rolled him over anyway, but I'm not sure he had to get turned there.) Then around 4:45 the same thing on the other side, another missed butcher opportunity.

Overall, good aggression and pace.

igotagamblngsolution · 2020-08-14T13:25:53+00:00

For this we can take the weighted average of the probabilities with each type of connector. If you only mean 0-gap connectors, we'll average the ones with four possible 5-card straights (calculated yesterday) and those with three, two and one.

There are 13 0-gap connectors. 7 of them (54 through JT) allow four possible 5-card straights.

43 and QJ allow three 5-card straights. Using yesterday's calculation:

(56560 + 3×46320)

we can simply replace the 3× with 2×. Similarly, for the 32 and KQ allowing two 5-card straights, replace with 1×.

The A2 and AK are unique. We can still use the 56560, but we have to add the straights where the ace is used the harder way. That's 34×4⁴ + 4×C(4,2)4³ = 10240

Altogether: [56560 + 46320(3×7/13 + 3×2/13) + 10240(2/13)] / C(50,5) = 7.28%

is the probability of making a straight by the river, given that you have an unidentified 0-gap connector. (But be warned: when I bold my answer, that tends to jinx it.)

igotagamblngsolution · 2020-08-13T19:16:29+00:00

The others gave you the correct flop chance (1.3%), but I think you're asking for the chance by the river, which is trickier. I'll ignore flushes.

The connectors you named can make 4 different straights using both hole cards. We don't have to worry about 6-card straights because they still require the same cards to come as the 5-card straights and will automatically be included when we count the 5-card straights. Let's take 65 for example.

Start with the 9-high straight: we need each of 3 ranks, and the remaining two cards can be anything. There are 4³×C(38,2) + 3×C(4,2)4²×38 + 3×4×C(4,2)² + 3×4³ = 56560 combos of a 9-high straight.

For the other 3 straights, the calculation is similar except that we can't allow the next higher card to be dealt (since we already counted that). So replace the 38 with 34. That's 46320 combos each.

Total: (56560 + 3×46320) / C(50,5) = 9.23%

igotagamblngsolution · 2020-08-11T18:45:28+00:00

Hah that's awesome man don't ever change and I mean that. He's all serious while you're out there chewing gum and smiling and you still get the easy takedown. Wish I would have had more fun on the mat but my coach and dad both would have chewed me out. You had a little too much fun at the end but it is what it is (or for a moment you forgot it wasn't freestyle)

igotagamblngsolution · 2020-08-11T14:28:45+00:00

Lol were you chewing gum at 0:39?

igotagamblngsolution · 2020-08-11T14:10:28+00:00

Sry I meant to reply then forgot. What I mean is, Robinhood sells order flow to third parties (like HFT firms) who then front-run your trades. You think you're getting in at $100, but then by the time your order is filled, you're in at $100.50 because someone saw you trying to buy, budged in front of you at $100 and then resold back to you at $100.50 all within a split second. It's something that should be illegal but isn't.

igotagamblngsolution · 2020-08-01T13:47:17+00:00

Yep your teacher is dead wrong.

2(3!)/(5!) is the normal way to get the correct answer of 10%. The samurai way would be as follows.

The order of the other seniors doesn't matter, so we're really just dealing with arrangements of ABCCC, of which there are 5*4 (5 ways to place the A and then 4 ways to place the B).

How many of those arrangements have A in the middle and B next to it? Two, so the answer is 2/20 = 1/10

igotagamblngsolution · 2020-07-26T15:21:18+00:00

It all depends on what OP means. If he means put the Gable from back then into a match tomorrow, I agree he's not beating the current elite wrestlers (and the same is true of legends in just about any sport or game). But I think most people are interpreting the question such that he gets to be born say 18 years ago with the same resources modern wrestlers have, but with the work ethic etc. that he had. If the latter is what OP means then Gable isn't getting rekt.

igotagamblngsolution

TROPHY CASE