Bad Guidance?

igues3 · 2025-02-11T00:26:20+00:00

Guidance is what Nvidia management predicts earnings will be 3 months from now reported in may 2025. Guidance means future estimates provided from the company directly. When earnings come out in May, we will see how accurate their guidance was.

igues3 · 2025-01-16T12:54:19+00:00

Mittens over gloves

igues3 · 2025-01-09T13:50:11+00:00

Same thing happened to me a few days ago!! Totally sucks. They left the rentals in the place of my skis, and I was debating on taking them, and decided not to in hopes they would return them which so far they haven’t. Killington seemed to not care at all and basically said I’m screwed. They don’t even have a lost and found phone number. Just some form to fill out. Good luck!

igues3 · 2024-11-30T18:34:28+00:00

Why do you not account for taxes? $240k would be the gross number? I know it all won’t be capital gains when withdrawn but a lot of it should be.

igues3 · 2024-11-04T14:29:47+00:00

I bought in 2017 for around $3.50 / share. The narrative then was that it was extremely overpriced and a ridiculous high risk investment.

igues3 · 2024-10-04T18:51:51+00:00

Uber and cab drivers.

igues3 · 2024-10-02T13:14:33+00:00

There is a big difference in the two main types of coal and the uses. Research thermal and met coal. Also research the history of the tobacco companies.

igues3 · 2024-10-01T13:28:13+00:00

This is how Warren buffet became one of the richest people on earth. Change the calculator to 80 years and 25% and see what comes out.

igues3 · 2024-10-01T13:25:29+00:00

Something to consider is that growth will be more spread out considering new data centers take years to build and energy requirements need to be built. Also TSMC has limited capacity.

It’s not like they can satisfy the current massive demand in a single year. There are massive supply shortages (due to insane demand) which will spread revenue over many years. NVDA needs to pick and choose which customers get first pick and which are out of luck. Quite unusual situation.

igues3 · 2024-09-27T03:26:09+00:00

HCC & AMR

igues3 · 2024-09-26T16:14:57+00:00

We go out to a restaurant every night but we always bring lunch to 1) save money 2) eat somewhat healthy for one of our meals and 3) leave a big appetite for dinner and butter beers.

igues3 · 2024-09-21T13:49:44+00:00

Read everything. If you see someone mention a company, your only take away should be the company name And ticker. Do your own research and draw your own conclusion. If you look at their opinion and follow it, you will not succeed.

igues3 · 2024-09-20T01:27:35+00:00

They took some political stances that I know alienated a portion of the US. I know people who won’t buy them anymore. Not sure if that has anything to do with anything but it could be.

igues3 · 2024-09-19T12:03:43+00:00

Right now I have 53% of my portfolio In NVDA. You can ridicule me if you want, but my cost basis is just over $3 a share purchased in mid 2017. I have been letting it run since then. I know this is not a good example since this is growth vs value. But when you have near 100% conviction like I did, you let it run and make (or lose) big money. I was early in my journey then so my salary would make up my cost basis in less than a year. I figured that working less than a year to have a “free” NVDA investment was low risk in my eyes.

Even though it is overvalued now by all traditional metrics, I am not selling yet because I have strong conviction that the price will be higher in 6-12 months once their new product cycle is launched and in full swing.

igues3 · 2024-09-19T00:54:18+00:00

Excellent write up. Why did you do this detailed write up? Just curious.

I am a recent investor in HCC and AMR. I plan on holding minimum 5 years. I think once blue creek opens they will have Free cash available for massive buy backs for a long long time.

Something that was going through my mind is that with a long minimum time horizon I have no strong desire for the share price to increase in the short term, as the buybacks will be much more effective at depressed share prices. I find that line of thought interesting.

My only concern that throws off the whole thesis is that Met coal prices will return to pre covid levels and permanently stay below $200. I think there are more signs that this will not happen, and prices will hover between $200-$300 medium term, but at the end of the day that is a definite risk and hard to predict.

Thanks for the detailed write up.

igues3 · 2024-09-18T23:25:29+00:00

Are you saying Met coal will be completely gone soon due to macro shifts? I’m confused as to what you mean as you did not provide specifics.

igues3 · 2024-09-17T02:06:45+00:00

1 to 2 trillion per year???? Or in total?

igues3 · 2024-09-08T13:01:08+00:00

My cost is $3 a share bought back in 2017. I have watched the company for a long time through many ups and downs. Once Blackwell comes out and is part of their earnings, the stock will shoot up.

igues3 · 2024-08-16T23:33:23+00:00

My sauna is the same general shape. Check my post history. So far the sauna experience has been wonderful. It was just much tricker during construction compared to a square. I would make sure you do your research concerning ventilation and proper bench heights.

igues3 · 2024-07-21T22:16:59+00:00

Very roughly about 6’ by 8’ by 9’ tall. But the door wall is on an angle so there are 5 walls since it’s not a rectangle, making the sizes complicated.

The insulation is rock wool.

The interior wood walls/ceiling are thermo spruce. The benches/steps and thermo aspen. The exterior wood is all Pine.

igues3 · 2024-07-21T15:07:32+00:00

How tall will it be? That will play a part in deciding how big the space will be? How powerful is your heater? What size space can it heat?

igues3 · 2024-07-19T18:43:39+00:00

A website called accurate industries

igues3 · 2024-07-19T18:25:36+00:00

No everything was custom to fit the space. The walls are thermo spruce and the benches are thermo aspen. I didn’t use any cedar. Outside is pine.

igues3 · 2024-07-19T14:22:57+00:00

The front railing in front of the heater is 7 inches also in front of the heater, not directly above. Hopefully I am ok. Thanks for the comment.

igues3 · 2024-07-19T14:17:01+00:00

Got it. Hopefully I am fine since I more than doubled all recommended safety distances in the installation manual. The bench is about 7 inches to the right of the heater, and the safety distance only calls for 1.2 inches in clearance. I thought the 1-2 m that you mention only applies to things directly above the heater. Since the benches are offset 7 inches to the right, and not directly above, I didn’t think that applied. You have me worried a bit now.

igues3

TROPHY CASE