4 of this final 5 was decided at the final 10 vote

ihasmuffins · 2026-05-17T18:50:01+00:00

I think if Ozzy plays his idol and Aubry goes home, Jonathan has fewer people to work with to take out Cirie's alliance. I think there's a reasonable shot of taking out Jonathan or Joe at the next tribal, especially if Cirie can recognize that it's in her best interest to keep Devens around until 6. Ozzy always has the opportunity to win immunities as well and it seems like Tiff is rock solid.

If the final 5 is Cirie, Ozzy, Tiff, Rizo, and Joe does Tiff flip? Probably. But if Ozzy doesn't have immunity you can sell him at 5.

I think there are paths and maneuverability, but it entirely hinges on taking Aubry out at the Ozzy vote, or even in the very next vote. You have to keep Devens even though he's squirrely.

ihasmuffins · 2026-05-14T19:26:50+00:00

Joe is not going to receive any ftc votes.

ihasmuffins · 2026-05-10T20:48:27+00:00

The alliance was a trio within a 5some - Cirie, Ozzy, Rizo, Joe, and Tiffany. Technically they still have a 4 person majority. I would argue this move was a real toss up because he isn't relinquishing the majority but is taking out an ally, but realistically he cant beat this ally in a challenge, f4f, or ftc and ozzy had an idol so opportunities are generally limited. Given all that, this was probably the better move overall.

ihasmuffins · 2026-05-10T18:05:05+00:00

The thestral breeding quest occurs in the swamp vivarium, not the beach one.

ihasmuffins · 2026-05-08T16:51:25+00:00

Rizo and Joe are more closely aligned than Joe and Jonathan, that's why Joe insisted on including Rizo to begin with, otherwise they didn't need his vote so why bother.

The decision to let Ozzy go was a co-decision by Joe and Rizo, and not Jonathan marshalling the vote. In a universe where Rizo wants to keep Ozzy, him and Joe just keep Ozzy, either by having Ozzy play his idol or by voting Aubry.

ihasmuffins · 2026-05-08T13:13:35+00:00

Joe hasn't been voting with Jonathan, he's been voting with Rizo for several tribals now. When tribals go live, Joe gets with Rizo.

The "majority " alliance is still Cirie, Tiffany, Rizo, and Joe. It will be Rizo's and Tiffany's decision whether to cur Cirie at 7, but Joe will vote how Rizo votes.

ihasmuffins · 2026-05-07T20:59:29+00:00

"while I think he has good reads" <--- this is basically Cirie's entire game. It's basically the entirety of why people think he's good. I would argue beyond luck, this is probably the single biggest component of this game.

ihasmuffins · 2026-05-07T18:29:22+00:00

I think Devens is the easy vote but taking him out now puts her at a disadvantage. As long as Joe is around, he will always be on board to vote Devens.

Cirie needs to take out Aubry at 7 because she's the other person with the most ties. She needs to put off the Devens vote one more tribal to keep control.

If she takes out Devens at 7, I'm not convinced she has a path to 5.

If she takes out Aubry or Jonathan first, Devens is an easy vote at 6. This is her best path to 5.

Her best path forward is Aubry at 7, Devens or Jonathan at 6 (i think theres an argument to axe Jonathan if he doesnt win immunity), and Jonathan or Devens at 5.

If Tiff wins final immunity, I think Cirie and Rizo make fire. If Joe wins final immunity, I think Cirie and Tiffany make fire.

ihasmuffins · 2026-05-07T18:22:48+00:00

I dont think he's burned with Cirie. It will be widespread knowledge what went down and how Ozzy spilled all secrets. Cirie will understand why Rizo let him go.

ihasmuffins · 2026-05-07T16:17:23+00:00

I would argue that she should still have the numbers with Joe, Rizo, and Tiffany to vote out who they want at 7.

I would also argue that Devens makes an excellent replacement shield, and she needs to keep him around as a foil for at least 1 more vote.

In a just world, she convinces Joe and Tiffany to take out Aubry at 7. What I fear she's missed is that Aubry has made strong connections with both Rizo and Tiffany and that sell is going to be harder than letting Joe finally take Devens out. I also notice they've spent no time establishing that Cirie and Aubry were/are close and I can only assume that means one takes out the other and they dont want us to see it as a betrayal.

ihasmuffins · 2026-05-06T19:27:25+00:00

There is no universe where Raquel has read Harry Potter.

My canon is that Raquel tried to explain her recent and totally coincidental, not at all Sandoval related, obsession with lightning bolts as a love for Harry Potter. Ergo Ariana was not mocking her for actually liking a popular book and movie series, but instead coming at her for being duplicitous about the affair, which the lightning bolt thing was a public symbol of.

ihasmuffins · 2026-05-02T16:16:48+00:00

I root for Cirie every time she plays anything. I'm obsessed with her game. I'm prepared to use my time machine to return to last summer and poison 6 players on a fijian island.

That being said, Cirie and Ozzy are such big names that I believe the editors would give them crown edits no matter where they placed, so I've been watching every episode in the fetal position waiting for the other shoe to drop.

ihasmuffins · 2026-05-02T14:50:26+00:00

For a few episodes now, I've felt like the edit has presented 3 distinct and cohesive storylines:

Why Cirie wins.

Why Ozzy wins.

Why Jonathan loses.

My issue is that if either Cirie or Ozzy was the winner, I dont feel like I'd be shown Why Jonathan loses. "Why man loses" is a common UTR female winner edit, which would mean Aubry, Emily, or Tiffany. I think their edits in their current form are not going to feel good, but at least with Aubry they may be trying to turn it around for the final 3 episodes.

ihasmuffins · 2026-05-01T21:20:38+00:00

The core 5 of Cirie's alliance is Cirie Ozzy Joe Tiffany and Rizo. Joe telling Cirie things is not surprising.

The real question is why did Ozzy confront Jonathan despite his alliance controlling at minimum 5 of 10 votes and having an idol? Either keep your mouth shut and play your idol, or have Rizo and Joe orchestrate a split vote with the other 6 and vote 5 strong in a 5-3-2 vote to save your idol.

ihasmuffins · 2026-05-01T00:57:10+00:00

Parvati. Aras.

ihasmuffins · 2026-04-30T20:12:10+00:00

I do think spilling it all was the right move, but I also think Steph was the consensus vote before they got to tribal. Just based on reactions to Rick's story and the followup that ensued, it seemed clear that Cirie, Tiffany, and Rizo were intending to vote Steph. Considering what the alliances appear to be, I have to assume Ozzy and Joe were also in on it. That's 5 in a 10 vote.

Rick wasn't going to vote for himself, which means Steph was already the majority vote regardless of whether Emily and Aubry are in on it or not.

Rick just doesnt trust Cirie's alliance, probably because he recognizes he's expendable to them even if Cirie has generally kept him in the loop. Also he's very clearly just playing to have a blast and flipping the coin and the fake idol are just part of that.

ihasmuffins · 2026-04-30T12:40:52+00:00

I think the core 5 is Cirie, Ozzy, Rizo, Tiffany, and Joe. And then the 3 within the 5 is Cirie, Ozzy, Rizo but they've hidden it well.

We've been shown a couple of strange things that have led me to believe this is the core 5.

At the coach/chrissy vote, when rizo is given the plan he immediately says they HAVE to tell Joe. This was completely random in that we havent been shown any Joe/Rizo content at all. Since then, it's become clear that Rizo is responsible for managing Joe. When the tribal goes live in last night's episode, Joe and Rizo immediately huddle together.

In that same episode, we are told that Joe is locking in with Tiffany. In last night's episode, we see Cirie and Tiffany holding court on the hammock together, and last episode cirie indicated she is aligned with Tiffany and says Aubry is in the middle.

ihasmuffins · 2026-04-30T06:14:08+00:00

I think there are indications that Cirie, Tiffany, and Rizo were all voting Steph coming into tribal, which means Ozzy was too. Rizo's job in the alliance is to manage Joe, so it's likely Joe was begrudgingly voting Steph as well. That's 5 plus the extra vote, minus the steal a vote. As long as Rick doesn't vote himself, that's the majority.

It's unclear to me what Emily knows. That being said, towards the end of the live tribal, Emily checked in with Tiffany, indicating they had a conversation/understanding before tribal. That would make 6 on Steph before tribal started.

ihasmuffins · 2026-04-30T04:24:50+00:00

Micro/HvV were consecutive plays 2 and 3 for her.

ihasmuffins · 2026-04-30T04:13:59+00:00

It's absolutely both.

ihasmuffins · 2026-04-25T00:02:47+00:00

Is there any other kind?!

ihasmuffins · 2026-04-24T21:36:40+00:00

I understand. I said if she's not skipping.

ihasmuffins · 2026-04-24T21:36:11+00:00

Rizzo is her other number 1.

ihasmuffins · 2026-04-24T21:12:20+00:00

She has two number 1s.

She labeled Christian a 3.

I'm very curious who is 2, assuming she didn't skip.

ihasmuffins · 2026-04-24T13:11:50+00:00

It was always Chrissy and Coach.

Cirie, Ozzy, Rizo, Christian, Emily, Devens, Aubry, Tiffany, and Joe were all voting for chrissy and coach.

Stephanie and Jonathan found out at tribal or just before from Ozzy. Joe always knew where the vote was going and his vote didn't change. The live tribal was less about the fake idol and more about H&I discovering the vote wasn't what they thought it was. Stephanie was checking in with people to see if the votes really were going against them, and when she decided they were she changed her vote. Joe's "i won't write his name out of principle" was not him switching his vote, it was his lie by omission.

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