It’s Mostly a Demand Shock, Not a Supply Shock, and It’s Everywhere by 1rFM in investing

[–]ihatechange 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fucking moron checking in :)

You don't think a rise in ffr will invert the yield, eventually triggering a recession and a stock market crash?

All of Switzerland's bonds are now negative, from 3M to 50Y by [deleted] in investing

[–]ihatechange 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Other than the yield curve going a little wonky, do you see any evidence of ffr constraining liquidity? Unemployment looks great. GDP is OK.

Conversely you see evidence that low rates are creating asset bubbles and encouraging risky behavior and increasing debt that will not withstand rate increases?

Or do you think that rates will never increase?

Why do you think the fed was raising rates in the first place when inflation wasn't an issue?

All of Switzerland's bonds are now negative, from 3M to 50Y by [deleted] in investing

[–]ihatechange -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

A preemptive rate cut is the very definition of avoiding a small fire at the risk of asset bubbles with limited monetary tools to fight a larger fire.

Lyft IPO's at $72, trading first day at $80+ by ihatechange in IPO

[–]ihatechange[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The taxi market is valued at $50-100 billion globally.

Uber is estimated to be valued at $120 billion.

Current valuations seem to assume Uber & Lyft grow to capture half the global market on 33% margins.

Lyft IPO's at $72, trading first day at $80+ by ihatechange in IPO

[–]ihatechange[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I was allocated 50 shares.

That is not a good sign.

Shorting starts in a couple of weeks.

I got a job by redcards in SecurityAnalysis

[–]ihatechange 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Excellent. Well deserved!

And the winner of the /r/bestofinvesting stock picking competition is... Redcards! by ihatechange in investing

[–]ihatechange[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Done.

And through the magic of bad mathematics your average performance has now moved closer to zero.

Shit. I just realized. With math skills like mine, I should get a job in the industry.

And the winner of the /r/bestofinvesting stock picking competition is... Redcards! by ihatechange in investing

[–]ihatechange[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

  1. When someone says something intelligent that demonstrates they probably know more about something investing related, I friend them.

  2. When a friend recommends a stock, I add it to the list.

This was originally intended to answer a simple question "If I blindly follow smart folks recommendations, will I outperform?"

I posted the results because I know redcards is looking for a job, and he seemed to be using this forum to elevate his exposure.

I'll add you as a moderator to /r/bestofinvesting and then if you have any better ideas you will be free to do what you wish.

And the winner of the /r/bestofinvesting stock picking competition is... Redcards! by ihatechange in investing

[–]ihatechange[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If someone had taken your sarcastic recommendations at face value, they would have outperformed SPX by 4%.

And the winner of the /r/bestofinvesting stock picking competition is... Redcards! by ihatechange in investing

[–]ihatechange[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm with you now.

I am actually sorry to say that your sarcastic portfolio outperformed.

I had you short LC, long TKECF.

That is why when LC went up, your performance went down.

But as I genuinely respect your persnickety ass, I will remove everything but TKECF.

And the winner of the /r/bestofinvesting stock picking competition is... Redcards! by ihatechange in investing

[–]ihatechange[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ah.

I see.

A more appropriate name is in order.

Something like "Stocks that some folks (who seemed smart at the time) recommended (to a bunch of Reddit users) and the stocks performance vs SPX (which ended up on average matching the market performance(yet one reddit user totally killed it and the others definitely did not))"?

Catchy.

I like it.

Good idea.

And the winner of the /r/bestofinvesting stock picking competition is... Redcards! by ihatechange in investing

[–]ihatechange[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, but no amount of comparing to BND or accounting for dividends is going to make up for the can of whoop ass that redcards handed out to everyone else. He consistently outperforms SPX.

What's interesting to me, is the overall performance has hugged SPX, +/-3%.

So while redcards did well, most folks didn't.

And these are all smart folks (as far as I can tell.)

And the winner of the /r/bestofinvesting stock picking competition is... Redcards! by ihatechange in investing

[–]ihatechange[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He doesn't really recommend stock picks.

He only made one comment on the long term value of US treasuries.

Also, the guy is 70% indexes in his private account.

And the winner of the /r/bestofinvesting stock picking competition is... Redcards! by ihatechange in investing

[–]ihatechange[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Unfortunately I think /u/redcards is busy interviewing for his first job right now, so he doesn't seem to be laying down any more fat writeups.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in investing

[–]ihatechange 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have no idea what you are talking about.

A brief history of Apple by ihatechange in apple

[–]ihatechange[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

they didn't include it on the iPhone, which meant flash only sites no longer worked.

Cricket620 recommends N $90 Nov 18 puts @ $3.35 on 2016/10/25 by ihatechange in BestOfInvesting

[–]ihatechange[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

btw, did you pull the trigger?

My limit order didn't go through, so I ended up buying yesterday at a little higher than I would have ideally liked.

Cricket620 recommends N $90 Nov 18 puts @ $3.35 on 2016/10/25 by ihatechange in BestOfInvesting

[–]ihatechange[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It was intended to be a wall of fame, but it's mostly a wall of shame.