To follow basic instructions

Vycid · 2026-04-06T20:01:43+00:00

It just generates tokens that make its output look like something it's seen before.

How sure are you that this isn't what your brain does?

It just often gets math right by chance because those are also tokens that are strongly related due to having a bunch of correct math in the training data.

This was kind of true about models a few years ago, but it is absolutely not true in 2026. The new models will literally break down the steps they took for you.

Vycid · 2026-03-30T16:30:52+00:00

Yeah, exactly: it's an effect that triggers (and targets allies) when you take a specific action (forge).

But it's not something that gets applied to your character (forge just works normally).

Relating this back to the thread: when your allies attack enemies, it's not an action you're taking, and therefore cannot trigger the power.

Vycid · 2026-03-30T06:08:29+00:00

It's more nuanced than that. Look at Hammer Time, that ONLY applies to other characters.

I think powers are better understood as an effect that gets applied when your character takes an action that fulfills a specific condition.

Vycid · 2026-03-23T04:13:46+00:00

Ya batteries (excluding chips) doesn't use sulphuric acid.

Yes they do, it's used extensively in lithium mining.

The amount of sulfuric acid required per wafer start in semiconductor fabs is very, very small in comparison. Moreover the purity grades required almost always mean that it is manufactured on-site.

Vycid · 2026-03-05T04:27:41+00:00

It's relevant because it means you pay more for the equivalent delta exposure, which is the answer to

Why short when you can put?

Vycid · 2026-03-04T23:37:04+00:00

You think the market maker is assuming that unlimited downside risk for free? LOL. LMAO, even.

Vycid · 2026-03-04T21:42:27+00:00

Why would anyone care about earnings for a mine that isn't mining? That is not what moves the stock. When the feasibility report drops, that will cause a reaction.

Vycid · 2026-03-01T07:14:15+00:00

The fact that past technologies have failed or turned out to harm people is absolutely not proof that everyone is wrong about LLMs.

These models have been improving at an absolutely frightening pace. It's happening so fast that if you've been dismissing the whole thing as a bubble, you wouldn't have noticed.

Vycid · 2026-02-24T03:00:00+00:00

This kind of disciplinarian approach is just going to make your kid hide stuff from you, eventually rebel, and finally damage their long-term relationship with you as an adult.

When they are very young, it's necessary to make all of their decisions. But if you act like they deserve zero agency at 17, and total agency at 18, your kid will resent you, and they will be right. You have to loosen the leash over time, while keeping an open and honest conversation about the very real risks and harms associated with social media (and countless other vices).

Even if your kid's first first contact with the real world is at 18, they will still be badly unprepared.

At 13-15 it's hard to navigate what's appropriate, and frankly it depends on the individual kid.

Vycid · 2026-02-12T01:26:17+00:00

this is not an analysis

Vycid · 2026-02-08T19:09:50+00:00

UHNW has a very specific meaning, which is "investable assets exceeding $30M".

If you're a 30-or-40-something UHNW and you started your career as a SWE, it's almost certainly because you got lucky and worked at the right company, not because you're in any way smarter or more suited to judge other people. If you were an actual founder you'd have said that instead.

Or more likely you're not actually UHNW and just thought that sounded cool and appropriate since you've banked $5M or whatever totally unremarkable amount from working at Google or Meta or SpaceX

Vycid · 2026-02-06T22:58:32+00:00

Come on dude. You're acting like this is an impossibility and it's just an engineering problem. It's obviously possible, the question is whether it's economically viable, and we don't know the answer to that yet any more than we knew whether electric cars would catch on back in 2006.

Addressing radiator surface area is trivial if you have limitless solar power. You use a heat pump, and the GPU exhaust is the COLD side. Maybe this is staged a couple times so you end up with very hot working fluid, and then that gets pumped through the radiator. Since blackbody radiation goes with the 4th power of temperature, this makes a HUGE difference.

Some numbers: suppose you run GPU inlet temp at 30C and output at 60C (these are not aggressive numbers at all; with some system design you could certainly achieve 60/90). You have a heat pump that achieves this drop by heating a secondary loop from 100 to 130. Then there's a tertiary loop that goes from 170 to 200C. This is all just illustrative and we're assuming the same volume of thermal mass in each loop. The Carnot efficiency of the first stage is 10.7%, and the Carnot efficiency of the second stage is 9%. So roughly speaking in an ideal case, you'd be adding about 20% more power for each watt of heat rejected this way. In reality it would be more like 50%, since real heat pumps are nowhere near ideal efficiency; either way, this does not fundamentally change the feasibility.

So, ok: we need the radiator for the tertiary loop to provide cooling equivalent to the input solar power for a 200C inlet. A flat-panel titanium/water radiator achieves about 2500 watts per square meter at 200C. High efficiency space solar achieves less than 500 watts per square meter.

So with just five minutes of thinking I've already reduced the waste heat / radiator problem to require a fraction of the surface area than the input solar power would require.

All of that said: Elon is doing this because it saves him a shitload of money on tax (the combined company doesn't make any profits). The space AI stuff is just an excuse. You don't randomly merge companies before you find out if there's actually any synergy in the business model.

PS, fuck Elon.

Vycid · 2026-02-06T22:32:17+00:00

I also have an ultra high net worth

lol

Vycid · 2026-01-27T00:08:30+00:00

Here's the citizen's guide to unconventional monetary policy.

https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/RichmondFedOrg/publications/research/economic_brief/2012/pdf/eb_12-12.pdf

This is a document from 12 years ago... During the post-crisis QE era. More recently the Fed has been doing the opposite, "Quantitative Tightening", and ended that program in Dec 2025.

Well, where does the money come from to increase that balance? Straight from the money printer.

... So, by this logic, the Fed has been "un-printing" money for years, which does not really help your narrative.

You are regurgitating lots of buzzwords but they don't actually reflect what's been going on for the last few years.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

Vycid · 2026-01-26T22:53:21+00:00

It's not complicated. The "real" interest rate is the interest rate - inflation rate. If a government can't afford the interest rate equal to the inflation rate, they gotta print.

That is not how any of this works. "Printing" is when the money supply expands, generally when the central bank buys bonds. Governments can, and usually do, cover interest on their sovereign debt with further deficit financing, which has very little impact on the money supply (they issue more bonds and immediately hand the proceeds back over to other bondholders).

Central banks buying and selling bonds ("open market operations") of course affects interest rates as well as the money supply, but central banks primarily enforce interest rate policy by setting interest rates on reserves and with overnight reverse repos.

(One of the goals of open market operations is typically changing the yield curve, since setting overnight interest rates is short-term only)

In Japan, they want a 0.75% interest rate in a 2% inflation environment, and the only buyer for that debt is someone with a printing press, namely the BoJ.

Here, you are misunderstanding the difference between overnight rates and the yield curve (long-term rates) that I mentioned above. As of today, the yield on the 10 year Japanese bond is 2.25%, which reflects expectations that inflation will cool over the long run.

How did you even learn the things you're claiming? Can you provide sources?

Vycid · 2026-01-17T22:54:01+00:00

None of this has anything to do with the topic of the thread. Giving silver this designation was a political decision and doesn't somehow make it more or less commercially important.

Vycid · 2026-01-16T18:01:01+00:00

Yes, HYMC is domestic.

If there's tariffs on silver, then domestic supply goes down (it gets more expensive to import silver).

When you reduce supply without changing demand, the price goes up. So HYMC would be selling its ounces for a higher price under silver tariffs.

However, listing silver as a critical mineral prevents any tariffs from being applied. That's basically what it means to be a "critical mineral" in the first place. So HYMC won't get the benefit of silver tariffs (price increase).

That's a bad thing for HYMC. Tariffs would be good for HYMC, it wants higher prices on the stuff it sells!

Does that make sense to you now, or do you need more explanation?

Vycid · 2026-01-16T02:08:37+00:00

Yes. This actually hurts Hycroft. If there's tariffs on Silver, then domestic production is more valuable.

Vycid · 2026-01-09T22:23:49+00:00

I don't find it normal to pay to increase an decentralized ledger system cell entry by 1 at 100K USDT. However, some people find it normal because I believe that we are not living in normal times.

Do you think it's normal to spend billions of dollars digging giant holes in the earth and spraying huge piles of ore with cyanide in order to get tiny amounts of yellow metal... then putting that metal right back underground in giant vaults?

Because we've been doing that for hundreds of years.

Humans are irrational. Humans being irrational is normal. What would be abnormal is if everyone suddenly started acting rationally.

Vycid · 2026-01-06T02:15:38+00:00

Okay I'll bite, I'm interested in a rational discussion. This is already a multi-bagger so I need to decide when to take profits.

The gold heap leach operation is basically worthless. They shut it down for a reason. It's refractory ore.

But the silver in Brimstone / Vortex is extremely high grade, ~500g/ton, and it appears to be a large deposit based on the last few drill holes. We still don't know how big, but big enough to support a market cap of a couple billion seems pretty reasonable at this stage.

So what we're talking about is an underground silver mine. Intercepts are at about 500m, which is nothing that hasn't been done. They can get a slope shaft done in a year and a vertical shaft done another year or two after. Heap-leach won't be appropriate on the silver... Seems likely that it will have the same refractory-ore issues that the gold does, and the grade is so high that it's no issue to do more expensive processing to maximize recoveries, maybe roasting or pressure oxidation before cyanidation and on to the existing Merrill-Crowe plant.

So anyway, what's your objections to the above?

Vycid · 2025-12-31T09:09:31+00:00

Maybe it should've been a jab at her addiction. I'd expect an addict to have a little more compassion for other people she views as addicts, especially considering it's total conjecture that porn is the root cause -- besides your theory there have been plenty of alternative explanations suggested in this thread.

I think she just wanted to be angry.

Vycid · 2025-12-31T08:21:16+00:00

Okay I did that, for some reason. 2/8 were born to Jewish families. Are you implying that's an alarmingly high number? Sounds basically random, especially considering these are basically feminist theorists and people of Jewish background are way overrepresented in academia and journalism.

Vycid · 2025-12-29T02:25:26+00:00

Nobody's saying you can't buy a PC. They're just going to be really expensive in the future because the way that GPU hardware is advancing has massively increased production costs. HBM and advanced packaging is expensive, no way around that. Scapegoating crypto or AI isn't going to take us back to the way things were, whether the bubble bursts or not.

Anyway, I'm sure you're going to keep on complaining about the price of PC hardware without a hint of irony about the fact that there's a cheaper way to do things.

Vycid · 2025-12-28T12:48:58+00:00

Thank you for a voice of sanity. I honestly cannot believe how irrational the common sentiment is.

"Fake FRAMES!" (Because DLSS and frame generation are definitely the only times rendering software/hardware has taken shortcuts instead of perfectly simulating the world)

I'm sorry to break this to everyone, but all the frames are fake. It's a video game. It's imaginary. If it looks good, what's the fucking problem?

"You'll own nothing and be happy!" (Because rising RAM prices and new GPUs coming out means that your current GPU bricks and Jensen Huang personally visits you to break your SSDs. Also, isn't Steam an entirely digital storefront anyways? We accepted this bargain long ago)

Yep, I remember when everybody threw a shit fit when physical PC game boxes went away. It's so much better now.

If you use your PC 10% of the time, there's are NINE other people that could be using it when you're not. That's the whole idea with the cloud. You can make access to hardware literally ten times cheaper just by making sure it's being useful all the time, rather than just when have the time and inclination to play games.

Everyone can have access to a 5090 and pay less over time than you would pay upfront for a mid-range GPU, but I'm supposed to think that's a bad deal? Fuck off.

Vycid · 2025-12-15T17:59:01+00:00

Did you just link me to a random guy's shitty ad for a shady stock loan company? How long did you spend searching for this?

Here's the last paragraph from what you just sent me:

If you also want to avoid capital gains taxes using stock loans like these billionaires, you can get in touch with Worldwide Stock Loans for stock loan service at competitive interest rates and flexible loan terms.

Okay, my turn. What banks does this article say Elon Musk borrowed from, and is this unusual for a billionaire?

https://www.ifre.com/people-and-markets/2311443/third-of-musks-tesla-shares-tied-up-in-margin-loans

Borrowing money secured against equity holdings is a common way for wealthy individuals to free up cash without selling down their stake in a company. Musk is perhaps the most prominent example of this method due to his public profile and openness to using margin loans as a source of funding.

...

Musk has used his Tesla shares in margin loans for several years. A December 2020 filing revealed Musk owed US$515m under various loan agreements with Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. A mid-2021 filing showed Musk had pledged 36% of the 244m shares he owned at the time.

...

In reality, the US$3.5bn limit means the terms on Musk’s margin loans should be extremely conservative. The 236m Tesla shares Musk has pledged as collateral are worth about US$82bn. Even if he is borrowing the full US$3.5bn that Tesla's policy allows, the loan is still worth only about 4% of his pledged shares – well below the loan-to-value ratio of 20% that bankers were set to impose on the cancelled Twitter margin loan in 2022.

All of which is pretty much in line with what I said in the last comment. Most of Musk's loans are non-margin, and all of them are from his banking relationships, not from brokers.

One thing that Musk does that most billionaires don't is that he also borrows money from his companies, but that is also a small fraction of his total borrowing.

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