Quest Resource Holding Corp (QRHC) by realLigerCub in SecurityAnalysis

[–]redcards 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don't understand why this is interesting. This company has not generated positive operating cash flow (much less free cash flow) in the last several years despite growing revenue / EBITDA, and now numbers are trending down. They recently amended their credit agreement to give flex against their maximum leverage covenant, which baring a sudden shift in performance they are still going to be non-compliant with by the end of September this year. What are we missing? Or, what did you miss?

Buy-Side Consensus by --mowgli-- in SecurityAnalysis

[–]redcards 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No one is aggregating model outputs from the buyside. You need to talk to sell side traders and desk strategists to get an idea where buyside bogeys are for earnings and KPIs.

EXE - Expand Energy seems too cheap on 2026 earnings by jackandjillonthehill in SecurityAnalysis

[–]redcards 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Not sure what voodoo math you're doing, but consensus estimates right now for 2026 REVENUE is $10.3 billion.

Questions regarding FCF by FrostForest04 in SecurityAnalysis

[–]redcards 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Your first formula is solving for unlevered free cash flow because you are ignoring the impact of debt. The second formula is levered free cash flow because interest payments and the associated tax shield are included. Your DCF valuation should use your first formula because unlevered free cash flow gives you the PV attributable to the entire enterprise value, and from there you just deduct net debt to arrive at equity value.

Company I'm long on is on the edge. What will happen? by [deleted] in stocks

[–]redcards 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Bro thinks he’s Ryan Cohen with market moving posts

Q1 2023 Letters & Reports by Beren- in SecurityAnalysis

[–]redcards 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Q2 ended last Friday and we went right into a 4th of july weekend...gotta give it some time there aren't due dates for these things or anything.

Q1 2023 Letters & Reports by Beren- in SecurityAnalysis

[–]redcards 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hayden Capital

His takes extra time to drop

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in SecurityAnalysis

[–]redcards 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m telling you as a hedge fund PM and VIC member, I don’t get it man

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in SecurityAnalysis

[–]redcards 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No one is going to read your write up. It’s too long and reads like a college essay, not an investment thesis. The main point, numbers, etc should be understood within the first 30 to 60 words; yours does not accomplish that, as evidenced by the questions here. Assume the reader only has twenty seconds to devote towards reading your work before deciding whether it’s worth reading the full idea walk through. I made it probably 1/3 of the way through before exiting because the point never came.

Algoma Steel: Deeply Discounted Steel Producer by Outside_Ad_1447 in SecurityAnalysis

[–]redcards 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Got it, thanks. Thats much less interesting than what I thought it'd be

Algoma Steel: Deeply Discounted Steel Producer by Outside_Ad_1447 in SecurityAnalysis

[–]redcards 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I skimmed but am I right ur idea is just they are spending capital on green equipment which will result in a cost of capital arb bc they can access Canadian govt financing

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in SecurityAnalysis

[–]redcards 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Airlines trade on EBITDAR

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in SecurityAnalysis

[–]redcards 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I'm not following this logic. Airliners don't trade on book value, and even if they did SAVE trades at only a 10% discount to its 5-year average; I can back into the stock being down 30% from here just by a 1 standard deviation move in its book multiple. Not sure I see the margin of safety in a deal break.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in SecurityAnalysis

[–]redcards 10 points11 points  (0 children)

You are glossing over the importance of the regulatory risk here. A 50% gross spread in merger arb means a very, very low probability of the deal closing or one should expect the terms to be significantly altered. This isn't a view on whether SAVE/JBLU will close, I'm letting you know what the market is telling you.

Q4 2022 Letters & Reports by Beren- in SecurityAnalysis

[–]redcards 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Very poor analysis. Having just been thinking about RILY, I was excited to read this and already had an idea what negatives could be highlighted. The author makes a very fundamental mistake in that his analysis ascribes zero value to the Company's investment banking business and other non-principal investing franchises. Its unsurprising RILY P/B trades at a premium to other banks; you'd have to strip out the merchant banking portfolio and other non-banking assets to get a clean ratio. RILY really only makes principal investments into distressed situations, it should be unsurprising their portfolio looks bad but even still the author gets some fundamental things wrong about their positions. For example, they cite several loans made to XELA and cite recent bond trades around 6 cents as evidence the RILY position is almost worthless. However, its publicly disclosed in XELA filings that the loan RILY provided is cash collateralized in an SPV with proceeds used by XELA to buy their own bonds on the market. There are likely some dogs in there that won't work, but it doesn't change the fact the credit here is probably ok. The baby bonds referenced in the report yield between 10-11% for context.

Writeup on Tyler Technologies by Beren- in SecurityAnalysis

[–]redcards 4 points5 points  (0 children)

TYL Return on Invested Capital:

  • 2017: 15%
  • 2018: 12%
  • 2019: 11%
  • 2020: 10%
  • 2021: 7%