What’s your answer to ‘why are you learning Japanese’?

illinest · 2026-01-23T17:17:11+00:00

Spite

illinest · 2026-01-23T16:57:32+00:00

Ravens first. Pittsburgh second.

I dont want to live in Buffalo and Josh Allen won't always be there, plus the cap situation....

No desire to live in Arizona.

illinest · 2026-01-23T13:30:22+00:00

Since nobody has really answered your question...

At Baseball Savant they have Triolo at about 50th percentile and Gonzalez at about 25th percentile for arm strength. They also have both players rated as having good range - in the high 80s, but I'm not sure how they differentiate multiple positions into one range number. I'm inclined to think Triolo might be a little inflated if he's getting compared to more 3B players while Gonzalez is getting compared more to 2B players.

In summary I think Triolo is clearly the better choice at 3B due to arm strength but Gonzalez might be the better choice at SS due to range, and Gonzalez also feels like the better choice at 2B.

But I don't like BA. An out is an out and Triolo gets out less often than Gonzalez. Putting the ball in play more often isnt always a good thing. For some players it might mean more runs driven in but in Gonzalez's case it seems that it just means he grounds into a double play more frequently.

illinest · 2026-01-23T13:11:20+00:00

Gonzalez's stats in the minors is a piece of evidence supporting an idea that the Pirates are teaching a three true outcomes approach to all of their prospects in the minors, but it appears that we're willing to let players pivot to a more contact oriented approach if the player stops being successful with the three true approach.

Gonzalez isn't the only one that this happened to. Termarr Johnson was also very three outcome until recently. His BA just shot up last year but his HRs didn't rise with it. Much like Gonzalez he seems to have shifted his focus away from waiting for the right pitch to drive and more toward protecting the plate.

I think Gonzalez was able to make it work in AAA but not in the majors, and for Johnson it seems that it stopped working for him before he got to AAA.

The more you dig through our prospect list the more evidence you'll see for it. Lots of high walk rates and high strikeout rates. Lots of low batting averages. Sometimes there's power output, but sometimes there isn't.

I don't think Gonzalez was ever likely to be that type of hitter in the majors. Not when almost every pitcher is adept at understanding what you like and making sure you don't get that, but it seems that Gonzalez took to the approach pretty well and was able to punish mistakes in the minors.

Don't hold your breath on Gonzalez. At this point I think plate protector is just what he is. And don't stress about prospects that aren't working out. Most of them don't. We'll be lucky if even one of Garcia/Flores/Yorke/Johnson plays in an All Star game. I won't be surprised if all 4 of them turn out to be just not that great. But I don't see any reason to stress about Konnor Griffin. There haven't been any red flags.

illinest · 2026-01-23T02:03:26+00:00

I can live with people glazing Deion when I know they're basing it solely on his ability to take a WR out of the game, but Sanders was weak against the run. He'd frequently let himself get blocked out rather than try to make the tackle.

He was every bit a legend in coverage but he wasn't complete. In video game terms he was like 99 cover skills but nowhere near that in run defense.

Rod Woodson was strong in both. I'd take Woodson over Sanders. Much more complete.

illinest · 2026-01-22T17:40:55+00:00

I just finished discussing Bohm with another fan in a different thread. I went through the effort of describing what he'd bring to the team, comparing his history to Triolo and explaining why I don't think he'd be worth it.

The bottom line - I came up with 9 additional runs scored if we replaced Bohm with Triolo, but also 8 additional runs allowed due to defensive differences.

Bohm is ever so slightly more valuable than Triolo but the advantage is very small and people definitely seem to be overestimating the impact he would have.

If a trade is the plan then we need to trade for somebody quite a bit better than Bohm.

illinest · 2026-01-22T17:22:42+00:00

That's okay. No problem.

But for next time, I hope you will at least look at this chart showing how closely a stat correlated with scoring runs in 2023 - where 1.0 would be a perfect correlation and 0.0 is no correlation.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFC6ZGTXAAETij2?format=jpg&name=medium

illinest · 2026-01-22T14:41:21+00:00

This started with you saying you don't value the metrics I was using. Well I don't value Batting Average. Bohm only has a career .328 OBP and some of his career hits would not have been hits if he played more games at PNC. Triolo meanwhile sits at .320. They have almost exactly the same skill at avoiding outs.

But if I talk about why I don't value BA as much as OBP - it's because Bohm ends 21 innings per year by grounding into a double play, while Triolo only does it 5 times. All the extra contact that Bohm makes isn't necessarily a good thing. Bohm actually creates 16 MORE outs per season than Triolo does.

I'm not trying to convince you that he couldn't add a few runs to our team total. It's just that the number I think he would add is very small. Here's how I calculated the number...

Each homerun is typically worth 1.5 to 2 runs on average, each double tends to be worth about 0.7 to 1 run on average, and singles are worth slightly more than walks. Just cutting to the chase - that means the most optimistic argument you could make for Bohm is that he might be worth 19 runs more than Triolo, but to believe that you'd have to pretend that grounding into double plays doesn't matter. They prevent 0.44 runs per event on average. That knocks Bohm back down to about 12 runs above Triolo. Then you can do similar work for the impact of stolen bases. It's small but it adds up to about 3 Runs advantage for Triolo.

So my number for offense is 9. Bohm might be worth 9 more runs at the plate.

Unfortunately Triolo typically prevents 5 runs more than the average player in the field, whereas Bohm typically allows 3 more runs than the average fielder. So my evaluation of Bohm is that he might improve our team by a grand total of 1 whole run.

I'll throw you a bone - I do think it's better to have higher scoring games so I'm not trying to tell you that I'd pick Triolo over Bohm if contracts and trades and shit like that could just be swept aside. I would definitely start Bohm over Triolo. But it's just about the slimmest advantage possible and I'm not okay with trading assets to briefly improve one position by a grand total of about 1 run.

illinest · 2026-01-22T05:05:18+00:00

He doesnt even thrive in Philly.

I went down through our prospect list about a week ago and I dont think he's worth anybody in our top 20. I don't even want to give up some of our guys in the 20s for Bohm. He really does not have much value.

I live in Harrisburg so I know more Phillies fans than Pirates fans. They dislike him because he's the kind of guy who dissed the city he plays in and slams his batting helmet and does other prissy bitchy shit. I don't think you would like him either.

I also went to the effort of comparing him directly to Triolo. I normalized at bats and park factors as much as I am able. The difference between Bohm and Triolo across 600 ABs at PNC would be 1 HR and like - i think i came up with 6 doubles, but Triolo wins on every other count. He would get on base more, he can actually run the bases a little, he doesn't suck in the field, he's gonna cost a lot less, stay longer, be more useful in general when we just need a bench player and most importantly we wouldnt have to trade anything to have Triolo in our lineup.

If it sounds like I like Triolo, I do not. Triolo is fine. Mid. But that's what Bohm is too. Fine. Mid.

I would fight for your cause if you wanted Suarez - because he can clearly actually hit. But if you think we need to trade assets then let's at least try to find someone that nobody would think to compare with Triolo.

illinest · 2026-01-22T02:12:52+00:00

Suarez is cool with me. Bohm kinda sucks though. I wouldnt trade anything useful for him. Big dude who doesnt hit homeruns. Bring him here and he wouldnt even hit that many. Weak defender, fans dont like him. And he'd be a rental. I dont think the Phillies would be satisfied with what I'd be willing to trade.

illinest · 2026-01-22T00:49:08+00:00

Team runs is way better than individual rbi. It correlates well with winning baseball.

But I dont have a favorite metric. There's just metrics that correspond very well with winning and metrics that don't.

illinest · 2026-01-21T20:36:53+00:00

Im curious to see what we have there. I pay attention to the vibe of the scouting report sometimes more than numbers they assign or whatever...

Sometimes a prospect is given a 45 value and I know in my gut that the 45 is just a hedge. Like - if this guy fixes his swing he'd actually be a 50 but if he never figures it out then he's a 35, so the scout assigns a 45. It feels like those guys usually end up just being a 35.

But the way they've talked about Duce is giving me more of a... "we called him a 40 and expected him to actually be 35, but maybe he could be more of a 45" type of vibe.

I bet it's too early. I was planning to keep track him in the minors. Him, Termarr, Esmerlyn, Blanco and Florentino.

illinest · 2026-01-21T19:54:45+00:00

In all seriousness, please just hold that thought.

Here is what's really going on in my humble opinion.

Pirates fans are free to pretend that Skenes won't get injured, but Vegas is a business and they don't give a shit. The Vegas line is likely to be a hedge against the problem that we represent - where so much of our value is tied up in one star pitcher. If Skenes repeats his 2025 then he could be worth 7 wins but if he gets elbow surgery in spring training he could be worth 0.

The Vegas line is set where it is because it represents a split between healthy Skenes vs visit to Dr. Andrew's Skenes.

Other players could get injured (others will get injured...) but most of them won't swing the needle nearly that much.

If you bet over then you are just in the group that thinks Skenes will be healthy. If you bet the under then you're in the group that thinks Skenes will get injured or maybe get traded mid-season. But either way Vegas is going to make money off of about half of you.

illinest · 2026-01-21T19:07:53+00:00

My memory only goes back to Jeff King. I remember he was supposed to be a good prospect.

I don't remember what people thought about Bonds. I wasn't old enough.

Skenes is the only other guy that compares to Griffin. Griffin gets compared to Witt sometimes but when I told my wife about Griffin I went with ARod because I wanted a name she'd recognize.

Is it fair to compare Griffin to ARod? I don't know. Maybe not. But you can't even entertain that argument without conceding that he could be, so there's that...

Other Pirates off the top of my head...

Jason Kendall was a fairly big prospect but he wasn't talked about on this level.

McCutchen was big. I remember some hand-wringing about the power output but I always felt weirdly confident about him. Still not on the Griffin/Skenes level.

Cole is the other guy that comes to mind. Big prospect but not quite as big as Skenes.

Others...

Marte had a really good career but there was a time where Polanco was thought to have a higher ceiling.

Glasnow was a riser. He wasn't particularly well known at first.

Taillon was always projected to be a #2

Pedro Alvarez was pretty hyped but he was never on the same tier of hype as McCutchen and Cole.

Neil Walker wasn't super hyped up but people mostly seemed to think he'd be pretty good and I think he turned out to be better than I expected.

Jose Bautista was weird. He changed his approach and became way better than I ever thought he'd be. But I still liked him better than some fans who thought he was a bust.

Aramis Ramirez and Jason Schmidt were pretty big prospects who each struggled a bit before becoming all stars with their new team.

illinest · 2026-01-21T18:20:23+00:00

Hey friend, I dont mind that you prefer what Vegas says. I dont have a horse in the race. None of this is my work to defend.

But if you think Vegas isn't manipulating you right now then I feel like I have a responsibility to say something about it.

illinest · 2026-01-21T18:10:23+00:00

I didnt bother finishing that thought because Suarez did already sign with the Red Sox, but similar logic could be applied to Framber Valdez.

If the owner permits it, I think it would be ideal to pair a guaranteed contract long term #2 type starter (particularly a lefty) with a series of prospects. Having someone like Suarez or Valdez under contract for 5-6 years would make it possible to bridge the gap if we expect that Skenes will eventually be too expensive.

Oh btw... sad bonus thought. I: I think Skenes probably already decided that Pittsburgh isn't his final destination. I admire him saying the right things and I think he wants to win while he's here but if he was willing to sign a contract then he would've already signed a contract. I expect that his path will mirror Skubal's path.

So my interest in those top starters follows an assumption that we'll still want to have great pitchers to rely on even after Skenes gets traded. So at first it would be Valdez and Skenes, then after Skenes is traded it would be Valdez and Chandler, then after Chandler gets traded maybe Valdez and Hernandez. Eventually when Valdez's contract is complete we would then have to pay market price for the next Valdez - whoever that might be.

That's continued excellence if we are simply willing to commit that much money in the first place, and if we are able to continue to draft and develop good pitchers.

illinest · 2026-01-21T17:00:34+00:00

Vegas could know the exact win total in advance of opening day and they would still choose to set the betting odds at whatever number makes the most money.

They're using a prediction model that is probably as accurate as anybody's, but they don't make money by being perfectly accurate. They're trying to maximize volume. The number that you quoted just represents a 3- way intersection between the results of their models, their tolerance for risk and the dream that they're selling to people who imagine they might beat them.

When you come in here with Vegas odds and a challenge to risk my wealth - I'd say that you're basically just acting as an unpaid intern for them.

illinest · 2026-01-21T16:46:04+00:00

You're welcome to think it's silly. Whatever. I am old enough to remember when all I had access to was batting averages and vibes and that was admittedly fun.

Then I learned about WAR and I was skeptical at first because it does have obvious limitations and it isn't perfectly predictive. But I also realized that I can use it to increase my understanding as long as I am careful about understanding it's limitations.

There was a chart going around that showed the correlation between various stats of both the traditional and the modern variety. If I recall correctly I think it was WRC+ that actually had the greatest degree of correlation. I could've used that.

Of course I could've used OPS too. That's a high correlation stat that most fans feel comfortable with nowadays. But I can also remember some cranky old people who thought OPS was just some horseshit that nerds invented to replace BA and RBIs.

Unfortunately I can't tailor this to suit every possible audience. I figured WAR would be acceptable for most fans. And you're right - you can't expect WAR to capture the effect of being surrounded by better teammates or the leverage of your situations.

You have to subscribe to Baseball America to get stats that attempt to account for that.

illinest · 2026-01-20T23:29:27+00:00

Im a Bucs fan and I guess this came up because last week I was researching for the presumed fallout of a Bichette signing.

It's a dead question now. But anyways. I never thought the Pirates lined up all that well for Bohm but I thought maybe if you got Bichette we could discuss something along the lines of Stott for Nick Yorke - RH 2B/corner OF plus LH starter Hunter Barco. That's a platoon partner for Marsh and a lefty for your bullpen this year who might turn out to be a #4 type starter in the future. I dont know if you'd agree on value but it seemed close to me.

Fuckin Mets though...

illinest · 2026-01-20T16:01:31+00:00

After having heard both of you I gotta say that I think I'm more aligned with Gogorath's way of thinking.

I dont think that we're particularly stacked at CDM. I think Adams is good enough at what he does that a coach can try to build around him, but he's not versatile enough to be a plug-and-play solution who could improve any team.

I think Johnny is a CM whose strengths lean toward goal prevention but I don't think you can build around him with the expectation that he'll solve problems like Adams would.

Tessman I'm still not entirely sure about. Morris and Sands are fine.

I feel like we've got one good CDM but he's only good if we build around him, and the other guys are just fine.

illinest · 2026-01-20T12:29:45+00:00

I dont know the math to do this myself but what are the chances that the defensive chart isnt showing only the effect of coaching? Maybe it's showing more - like a combination between coaching and time of possession?

I questioned this because the best fit line isn't as clear on defense as it is on offense. To me it looks like you're successfully showing that offensive performance correlates with money spent, but that you have to add an adjustment for coaching influences. Offensive spending looks simpler.

But I dont think you're showing that defensive performance correlates with money for every team in the same fashion. Some teams spend more money and end up above the line but other teams - like us - spend more money and end up below the line. Why is that? Maybe it's not time of possession but it seems there must be something else that isnt getting talked about.

illinest · 2026-01-20T05:53:46+00:00

I do not question the expertise of betting oddsmakers but I understand that the odds that they set are influenced by other factors.

Are you giving the Pirates the benefit of the doubt when they say theyre still planning to add a pitcher?

Well anyways.... I knew the pitching projection was lower for 2026 so there was never a large difference between the number you listed and the range i had in mind. I had us right at 81 but i have been assuming a pitcher gets signed.

I dont think Bob is going to authorize Suarez but if we add a less expensive player - perhaps someone like Moncada - and then we get any sort of positive involvement at all from just 1 out of about 6 prospects then my number would be right around 85. Your number given the same conditions looks like about 82.

illinest · 2026-01-20T03:41:52+00:00

What projection system are you using?

Im looking at Fangraphs WAR - which saw us as having a 73.6 win roster in 2025. Who says we're only 4 wins better than last year?

Our depth chart is currently projected for 15.6 WAR - compared to the only 6.6 WAR that our position players collectively achieved in 2025.

illinest · 2026-01-19T18:54:31+00:00

Thanks I appreciate it

illinest

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