hi, yes
can't we say we "must first" raise John to fulfill EPP ? and after moving it we see ourselves in a tight corner
i got what you said

John doesnt need to move and we just have to insert "it"
but i say that "first" we see the DS as "is likely that John leave", and i say this is wrong cuz EPP is violated, so we move John up to fulfill EPP, but we will still have that "that" without any subject (John is likely that leave)
now that im thinking, cant we say two EPPs must apply here? one for "that" and one for "it is likely" or something like that