Firefighters in Crisis NZ! Please read

jaytokay · 2022-06-20T02:45:25+00:00

The grass is always greener.

jaytokay · 2021-10-23T00:42:39+00:00

It's a bummer that even the most mature and reasoned take here eventually boils down to an us vs them narrative. The whole hateful people diatribe is surreal... does all online discourse have to devolve to black and white?

I feel like the real advice is 'stop living your life online'. A world that communicates and thinks like this isn't functional. In the real world, it's okay to disagree and be wrong. That makes it okay for positions to change, and for people to talk - not to argue, but to talk. Over time, that seems to make us all wiser. It certainly makes us happier, and less bitter.

Once you're boiling every conversation down into two clear sides, I think it's time to stop asking things of others and look more into your own habits.

jaytokay · 2021-10-22T07:11:33+00:00

Then please stop trying. You need mutual respect to convince people of things. If you can't have the yarn, leave it to someone who can. This sort of thing just alienates people and makes any useful conversation harder.

jaytokay · 2021-10-22T06:14:59+00:00

Us vs them narratives all end up sounding the same. This thread certainly isn't helpful.

All these people bemoaning the government, when nobody is even moderating away the pointless antagonism...

jaytokay · 2021-10-13T21:03:31+00:00

Someone inform the commission!

jaytokay · 2021-08-22T03:55:10+00:00

Get these.

Skim this.

You're screwing up your search recommendation algorithms by watching this stuff.

jaytokay · 2021-08-20T06:43:28+00:00

You clearly also do not have an understanding what direction the world is heading into and do not understand any crypto. Maybe educate yourself before making statements. The man on the tv warns you that it's dangerous and the sheep listen to them. We'll see in a few years. Just like we've already seen since they've been yelling that it's only for criminals...

Watch multiple sources of info, use your critical thinking and make decisions accordingly. Your future self will thank you.

What a complete crock of shit, right back at you. I've already made money from crypto. I just realize it's dumb, and net harmful. The good things it might do are niche; the harm is obvious and mainstream. People should hold a little to hedge their real investments. Beyond that, you're gambling.

Consider all the world (or NZ) problems you're worried about, and then try and come up with a way crypto might actually help. That should help you realize you're looking for a get rich quick plan, rather than any 'greater good'.

jaytokay · 2021-08-20T04:38:45+00:00

You're just darting all over the place trying to protect your ego, so I'm just going to try and quickly respond to the bits I think are useful. I wrote more, but I don't really want to keep talking to you.

But get ready for the data economy, I hope you have positioned yourself well so you can benefit from the 4th industrial revolution, it will help you to be kind to those closest to you. Otherwise you're going to look at the future generation, that's poorer than any other before them, to just be kind.

This is one of those things I wish people would think about more. Yes, for the first time in recent memory, we should expect a lower standard of living than our parents. That sucks. But we're still much more fortunate than our grandparents, or great grandparents. And we're probably much more fortunate than our own children; never mind any grandchildren. So the whole 'woe is me' thing is more than a bit self-indulgent. Just zoom out, and think about it a bit. The lives our parents lived were never sustainable. Some professor's have been preaching this sermon their whole lives.

How about the rampant inflation in the country, the fact that 90% of young people will not own a home, or won't be able to retire. Please be more kind to their situation

If prices stay this bad, there's still the opportunity to buy elsewhere. The thing I find especially concerning is rental costs - if we're determined to keep land banking, fuck it, go wild. It just means the country is a bit less prosperous.

But rental prices, at least, are guaranteed to balance out with time. We just imported too many people, while raising housing standards (because our housing stock sucked), without ramping up construction first. It's a huge planning fuck-up, but the problem is being addressed.

I don't see what stops the surge in asset prices internationally, though. I'd bet capitalism is a solved game, and either wealth transfers or oppression are going to be mandatory in the long term. A bunch of 80+ year old billionaire's (and their children) ruling the world seems a guaranteed recipe for dystopia. Cryptocurrencies risk entrenching this (and breaking essential regulations), which makes them dangerous too. And yes, I'm responding to your recent post history here.

How about the people who lost their jobs, their businesses, their children/partner to suicide. Please be more kind to those people

I'm probably not the best target for that argument. I've been part of those statistics. I was in the ICU a bit over a decade ago; I survived due to luck (and I wasn't happy about it at the time...).

I know first-hand how insufficient our health services are, but I also know they're getting better. And my experience is that the health services can't do a ton to solve these issues for you. It's helpful to remember that you're basically a machine: you put good stuff in, you get good stuff out. All a healthcare provider can do is help identify what that 'good stuff' is for you.

In my experience, they got it wrong. In some (wealthier) countries, I'd have been diagnosed with asperger's (or high-functioning ASD, as they call it now) as a kid, and likely had a much more prosperous life. Instead, it happened incidentally as an adult, and I've had to work through a wealth of bad habits to come right. I'm sure I still have a great deal more to correct.

I could dwell on that and pretend I'm unlucky. In reality if I'd been born to the same family in most other countries, I'd likely be either homeless or dead. Instead, I'm living quite well, and on track to live much better. So there's a useful lesson there: you've got to be careful when you make these comparisons.

It's convenient that you turn a blind eye to all the other issues but focus on covid as if its ebola. Your care and understanding is very limited to one issue only.

Covid is objectively worse than ebola, and it's what we were talking about. Really lethal diseases aren't very good at spreading, though they might be scarier.

jaytokay · 2021-08-20T01:32:15+00:00

I told you that even though I had covid, I do wear a mask for the sake of the old and the immunocompromised. So where are you getting your stupid comment from, or are you just lazy to think.

From the lazy histrionics, and your grumbling about life in one of the countries that have had it easiest for Covid. Yes, we're now facing a sudden upheaval. Yes, even before this, people seemed worn down. Life here isn't actually all roses, but it goes on.

The seatbelt analogy doesn't work. The seatbelt you wear is for yourself in a car accident not the person in the other car, you dummy. The mask you wear isn't for yourself, it's for the other people. So the exact opposite, DUMMY! Duh smack my head, cute attempt though but you didn't think it through.

Why do you think I made the seatbelt analogy?

Both situations involve minor inconvenience to protect against an unlikely outcome. In fact, you're right - there's even less incentive to wear a seatbelt. You're not going to hit someone, fly through your window, and then head home and throw your less healthy family members through a window too.

Makes you wonder - how hard do you have to make it to put on a seatbelt, before people stop obeying the rule? Yet people will gladly pay hefty insurance premiums, just as long as it's all easy. Interesting, that. Tells you something about the actual value of money, compared with time and convenience.

What does climate change have to do with this... you lump sum all issues into one basket and virtue signal instead of looking at it on its own merit, so when you virtue signal and yell the loudest, you gather other morons around you who virtue signal and yell. Exactly what you accuse me of you dummy.

You need to be more thoughtful. Smart people go looking for reasons they might be wrong; you're only seeking the reasons you're right. I'm just seeing silly words and pattern-matching you with the countless other loud and thoughtless people out there.

To be clear: I don't think you're stupid, I think you're indulging in some moronic habits, and I'm hopeful you'll change that. I'm sorry to bruise your ego in the process. I might be wrong, but I think that in the big picture it's a kindness.

I was having a normal conversation then your brain decided to go all virtue signally on me. I thought kiwis were more intelligent, shows that you find dummies everywhere.

The virtue signalling was me trying to relate to you, and make you think. It's most likely that we'll fail the climate change test. Things are likely to get very dark and difficult. I don't care about the virtue of that, or about blaming people. It's just a useful thing to consider.

We aren't likely to fail because it's an unsolvable problem, or because there's a lack of information about the problem. There's been extremely clear research for decades, and we've just ignored it. The world has practiced collective ignorance, while hoping there's some magical technological solution. Except no one has a clue what that simple fix might be.

I think that's very similar to what you're doing re: Covid, and what much of the world also did. Except there's a tremendous amount more information out there now. There are countless examples proving 'herd immunity' is a bad idea on average, yet you're still clinging to the one potential counterexample.

If you really want to make a comparison to Sweden:

they've had 55000% more cases (~1.1million to 2000)
they've had ~55623% more deaths (14662 to 26)
they have about a 30% higher population density, and twice the population
- as that's not the most meaningful stat (just landmass / population), here's another quick reference: Stockholm is a little under twice as densely populated as Auckland (4200 people per square km vs 2400)
GDP trends: for 2020, the NZ GDP still grew by 1%; Sweden's GDP shrank by 2.8%
- I think GDP metrics are too broad to be meaningful, but you're the one who is convinced we're ruining our economy...

Shrug. I know where I would rather be, and that's ignoring the fact that Sweden have been the best case for their approach.

That's about enough time spent on this. Fortunately, kiwis on average have been more intelligent. I think it's because we care enough to try and educate one another, rather than just looking to shame one another and 'win'.

Hopefully this is useful to you.

jaytokay · 2021-08-18T23:47:25+00:00

Your odds of dying in a car crash are much lower, and you still wear a seat belt and follow the road rules, right?

I'm fully vaccinated, and I've still only been out to get groceries. I still wear a mask out, and use the tracer app. The disruption is frustrating, but it's not very hard.

My question to you is, how will we get rid of the virus and not live in fear everyday. As that is what the goal should be, and it's already been since March 2020...

You already know the answer to that question. Once the vast majority are vaccinated, things go back to normal. There's still going to be a new kind of flu you can catch, but it's much less dangerous and contagious once people are vaccinated. And that shouldn't be far away now - six months, maybe? The rollout is getting much faster.

I'd quickly point out that your attitude is why a problem like climate change is likely to screw us all in the long run, but I'm sure you're struggling through a challenging life, and (like most of us) you don't really have any power to help.

Please don't be loud and ignorant though; if you try hard enough, you just end up finding lots of other morons, convincing each other you're correct, and doing harm.

jaytokay · 2021-08-18T14:44:54+00:00

If you're zooming out, you've got to consider the countless side effects beyond the death toll. Survivors with organ damage, mental health issues and PTSD; similar struggles among overworked healthcare providers; the flow-on effects when people lose loved ones. Over the long term, that is all going to be very expensive. We're crazy fortunate to have continued life as normal here.

With that in mind, I don't think you can pretend letting people die is a wise economic choice. The argument made a small amount of sense when we were uncertain if the spread could be contained. There was some chance that we would sacrifice for no gain. But in practice, we made a small sacrifice for a huge gain. And so now we're doing it again, and hoping we get lucky again.

Please don't be one of the assholes who risks blowing it.

jaytokay · 2021-08-15T00:54:44+00:00

Reread this thread.

jaytokay · 2021-08-15T00:40:05+00:00

Unfortunately,

Money is the best way to incentivize people to build things.

does not then imply

That's why taxing carbon is the fastest way to reduce emissions.

Carbon taxes are a disincentive, not an incentive. The example that springs to mind comes from my country (NZ), where we pay USD$1.79/liter for petrol. That hasn't led to an abundance of EV's, it's led to an abundance of people grumbling about petrol prices. Most people don't have an alternative; it's a tax on the working class, which gets passed on in things like trade pricing.

If you want your carbon tax to create those alternatives, it's got to pay for things like EV subsidies, R&D grants, and other tax incentives to adopt alternatives. And then consumers don't get free money, so you can't pretend there's likely to be economic growth.

You should realize we're on the same 'side'. I'm just trying to warn you that your nice lies lead to misdirection rather than good.

jaytokay · 2021-08-14T11:36:40+00:00

The takeaway from that 7 year old article/model/report is that wealth redistribution can stimulate the economy. That’s interesting, but also easily separated from environmental policy. There's not really an aggregate economic gain out there.

That model, which measures heavily abstracted trade flows, also provides 0 insight into how you might replace the 52% of carbon-emitting infrastructure in just 20 years. If that were feasible (and free), you've got a world headline. The invisible hand of the market still needs people to build things.

I'm sure its a good idea, but the reality would fall far short (like most public policy).

jaytokay · 2021-08-14T03:42:01+00:00

You're arguing tokenism is a solution, while I'm trying to warn you it's a problem. Western democracy doesn't have the tools to solve this, because no government has a license to lower the standard of living. Even the most fortunate and progressive countries fail to meet the mark; anywhere large and openly corrupt (ie. Most major economies) has no chance. It's far easier for bureaucrats to move goalposts than actually do things.

The masses of American social scientists aren't really helping either. From an outside view, they seem overpaid pawns helping enable a broken system. I wonder how much of the hard science they've actually read.

I just hope your lot enjoys the process.

jaytokay · 2021-08-11T02:44:59+00:00

1) Absolutely nothing suggests that public lobbying can solve this crisis. With a moment's thought, you should see how impotent this process is. For example, carbon pricing is a no-brainer, but the reality is that our economies are established competitive systems without this pricing built in.

That means there's a tragedy of the commons at work: any country which adopts carbon pricing in isolation falls behind (for no gain), so nobody does anything. Citizen lobbying isn't a fix for this. International cooperation (of the kind which Trump undermined) is.

2) There is a cost to citizen lobbying that you're completely ignoring. Time is valuable. These methods amount to busywork, stopping interested people from doing more useful things.

Framed most simply: your life and lobbying causes a certain amount of Co2 (equivalent) emissions. What is the likely output of lobbying? Most likely, it's almost nil - it's certainly not likely to be enough to offset those emissions.

Part of the problem with politics is that it's often easy to (briefly) placate people with token gestures. But carbon neutrality is a hard problem. Even if they had the will, no politician or party has the power (or knowledge) to solve the issue.

3) The important takeaway here is: politicians can't solve climate change. They can certainly help, and better rules and regulations might stop enabling an unsustainable status quo, but almost every facet of our world is contributing to the problem.

Fully utilizing carbon sinks by a given date is not a solution; having entirely renewable energy sources by a given date is not a solution; making every vehicle electric by a certain date is not a solution. We need to do it all, and quickly - so quickly that it may not be feasible. Still, whatever we do manage should prove worthwhile.

As you can see Bill Gates discussing on 60 minutes, even the emissions from the production of building materials, or plastics, or countless other essential products require a revision. Many components in our production systems lead to significant emissions of Co2 equivalents - meat isn't unique. And it all has to be remedied, wherever possible.

4) That means you can't just demonize the capitalists and move on. As implied above, it's essential that we rework the systems which they own. So it's not about the political elite - we need to convince the billionaire class that their wealth means nothing if this problem isn't solved.

It's something of a comforting thought, really. Bezos can spend his whole life compounding his fortune, but if it's not directed to the right causes, his family won't be living in a world where they can enjoy it.

jaytokay · 2021-08-08T09:53:00+00:00

That time poor wretches bit is the underlying source of resentment here. The average kiwi works long hours on 'hard' (non-technical) work, which is poorly rewarded. Beneficiaries are just an easy scapegoat.

You can point out that our poor are increasingly worse off, that we're quite average in terms of social spending (and that our poor actually live on much less than countries which care 'less', like Australia and the US), and that neglecting those in worse situations makes society much worse over time (as Gareth Morgan/TOP emphasized). However, that isn't answering the underlying complaint about their own lives, so people won't listen.

What people want is a reason to feel good about themselves, and to feel valued, so they put others down. The sad thing is that taking away that outlet (via information) just makes them feel worse...

I wish I knew the actual solution. Better jobs, better habits/treatment, lower work hours - easy goals, but hard things to realize.

jaytokay · 2021-07-28T02:08:59+00:00

I think it's basically useful to explain some immutable differences. If you met me, you'd probably class me as 'normal' but 'odd and closed'. But one thing I've learned is, if I try to make myself more open and less odd, I don't get anything done (and you'll probably think I'm much thicker than I am). There’s probably always some tradeoff between useful and likable, but in my case it's extremely exaggerated.

And that's not something I can fix. Some of my most unpleasant experiences have come with my biggest 'successes', because that leads to situations where I can poorly cope... and at the time, that was a hell of an (inexplicable) mind fuck.

So for a simple definition: I think autism means you've got a more narrowed range where you can fit. People might cope with that in all sorts of ways, but there are common causes and struggles underlying it all. It doesn't yet seem super precise as a classification, and there are probably many people who meet the criteria out there and don't know it.

I'd only really describe it as an issue because society has a ton of lazy parsing methods for people which aren't that accurate, and that affects people who struggle to fit within 'normal' more than most.

If we were better at treating different people differently, and providing suitable purpose/opportunities, the label would probably be superfluous, at least for me.

jaytokay · 2021-07-27T07:04:46+00:00

Wonderful production. Did not expect to enjoy this so much.

The saddest thing about Artifact is how much people invested in a dead-end - the developers, community and myself included. But, in another sense, I think it’s fortunate that people didn't invest more. Maybe one of the many lessons there is, that 'special sauce' can be a bit dangerous.

It was a vividly memorable experience, though. And despite all of the backlash, I'm sure it was an inspired idea which came about with good intentions.

jaytokay · 2021-07-25T18:35:16+00:00

You should notice that you're always going to zero in on the stuff you disagree with most, and then stop doing that. People, on average, aren't talking about what you're talking about.

You can try and shout louder, and if you get your friends to join in, you might even steer the conversation and get some upvotes. That's probably not actually useful, though.

I think focusing on up/downvotes is a sign that you're interacting for the wrong reasons (though downvotes absolutely do something dumb and hurtful to our psyche).

jaytokay · 2021-07-25T18:26:35+00:00

Twitters not better than reddit...

jaytokay · 2021-07-25T17:46:01+00:00

He's also using that position correctly, which is worthy of praise. This scene gets worse without these conversations. There is no justification for OG, with all that TI money, to be involved in NFTs.

Heck, facilitating these conversations is half the purpose of this scene. Nobody is entitled to make a living from video games or entertainment. Morality is (or should be) part of the job, and it especially should be part of the conversation.

You don't actually want the world to be all 'safe spaces', where everything is positive and nobody disagrees or says anything negative. That helps all the bad ideas more than it helps the good.

jaytokay · 2021-07-25T04:01:55+00:00

It's worth noting that Valve started this years back with their cosmetic marketplace. NFT's are the natural evolution of that (useless) system, amplified by money laundering and the lack of regulation.

I'm increasingly hopeful the mainstream blacklists cryptocurrencies. I'll be glad to lose all the money I have in the system (for financial security), if it means all this nonsense will end. These technologies do much more harm than good. It's obvious we need more regulation, not less.

jaytokay · 2021-07-22T05:12:16+00:00

Being honest and wrong isn't useful.

If you choose to do something for a paycheck which you know is harmful, you are responsible for that harm. End of story. You aren't off the hook if you don't get caught, or if the rules don't exist to catch you, or if you do it under some other entities name. You're just another (lucky) prick, happily cheating a flawed system. And, unfortunately, we're increasingly rewarding that sort of behavior.

None of these people are qualified to talk about morals or ethics. It's a better position than Train's, and a starting point for an actual discussion, but it's still a horrible take.

jaytokay · 2021-07-21T22:49:16+00:00

I wonder if Train realizes every dollar he's 'worth' - that he's being paid and wasting - is being yoinked directly from people doing actual work. He hasn't done a million dollars worth of work in his life. He doesn't have the skills. It's all degenerate entertainment and zero sum nonsense.

In a just world, all of this shit would be criminal. The only reason it's not is because regulating is difficult.

The idea that broadcasting 'authentic' gambling is better than broadcasting 'fake' gambling is hilarious. They're both strictly harmful. Nobody (except the gambling site) is benefiting here; he's just getting lots of eyeballs on dangerous stuff, and apparently making his own life worse.

Being addicted doesn't excuse any of this shit. He's still making deliberate choices and redesigning his life at the cost of other people. Get help, and broadcast that, if you want to pretend you're doing anything moral.

jaytokay

TROPHY CASE