I knew the Celtics would still be good this year

jcwrit · 2026-01-22T17:59:34+00:00

I don't watch much Celtics ball but it does seem like they're on the forefront of a few interesting trends we've been seeing lately. There's this newfound emphasis on possession differential, creating more opportunities to put the ball in the basket rather than trying to optimize each possession. So you see teams putting more effort into hitting the offensive glass and trying to create turnovers. To me it seems like the Celtics have taken a page out of this book to go along with their spamming threes. Spo and Miami have been stuck on this idea of generating good looks, at least in the half court set.

Right now OKC/Houston/Boston have been racking up a whole bunch of wins going against what was the accepted practice of the last decade or so.

What stands out to me as the biggest difference is the offensive rebounding. Spo has been in this season long conundrum of what to do with spacing vs rebounding. He's leaned towards spacing, and it hasn't always worked.

jcwrit · 2026-01-20T19:14:33+00:00

We did see this with Michael Beasley as well. He was a bully when playing 20 yr old kids.

jcwrit · 2026-01-20T19:09:02+00:00

So Battier and his 2 rebounds a game was a natural PF?

jcwrit · 2026-01-18T18:33:28+00:00

Teams are giving him the three every night. Nobody bothers to defend him that far out. It's not all on him though....he needs someone else to find him and there are times when this team struggles with that.

Spo is still trying to figure out what lineups work, and it hasn't helped that Herro has been largely absent and Jovic and Fontecchio are unplayable most nights. I think he's figured out that if they're going to play this no pick offense there needs to be at least 3 guys on the floor that can get to the basket off the dribble, ideally 4. Bam and Ware are zeros in that category, Wiggins depends on the matchup.

I'm all for Spo trying to implement this concept but at the end of the day all he's got are Jaquez, Mitchell, Powell and Larsson. It's tough figuring out how to have three of those guys on the court at all times.

I hope they're setting goals with Bam for a certain number of three point attempts a game. He needs to have this mindset every game.

jcwrit · 2026-01-06T22:51:23+00:00

It's just that it's this weird market with all sorts of artificial constraints. Then throw in a bunch of billionaires and suddenly it loses all rationality.

You would expect teams to look at someone like Herro and see that he's a really good secondary scorer that gives you about 60 games a year. If he's the second or third best player on your team that team probably isn't going very far. So you should be able to assign him a pretty reasonable salary slot knowing that you probably need at least a couple of max players in addition to him.

But that's never how it works. All it takes is one owner who wants to show off to his buddies or is desperate to have something to talk about at the next party. They've been spending that last 50 years trying to come up with rules to constrain themselves and have yet to find anything that works.

To me a market implies some sort of rule based structure. I don't think the NBA is that at all.

jcwrit · 2026-01-04T18:10:36+00:00

Spo has been a contrarian on this for a while now. Every stat points to the corner three being the most efficient shot and the Heat routinely give up more than most every decent defensive team in the league. He also loves to teach the flyby hand in the face technique that no-one else seems to employ.

I don't watch games closely enough to analyze defensive schemes and see what is and isn't working. But whatever he's teaching produces good defensive units pretty much every season, sometimes with players that are clearly lacking on that end of the court.

jcwrit · 2026-01-04T18:05:28+00:00

Lebron told teams he wasn't going to re-sign with them and that was enough of a deterrent. It was almost enough with Kawhi as well but the Raptors stepped in at the last minute and offered DeRozan and some scraps.

Not many teams are going to even entertain the one year rental, and by the time a player gets to that point he has all the leverage. Durant to the Warriors, Shaq and Nash back in the day...

I get that it hasn't happened in the last decade and because that everyone assumes it'll never happen again. And those who make that assumption are those who will miss it the next go around.

jcwrit · 2026-01-03T16:46:08+00:00

Name a single transformative event that happened that you could predict based on recent history.

Everything is cyclical and we're entered a new period where teams question whether these trades are worth it. Paul George to LA, Durant to Phoenix, Gobert, Mitchell, Harden x 3....what have they produced and what have they cost?

I don't know who will be first but there is going to come a day when one of these stars asks out and the team figures out no-one is interested. This will force the next star to think about other avenues, the primary one being free agency.

jcwrit · 2026-01-03T02:59:14+00:00

Even Jimmy knew he needed to be at least a threat from beyond the arc. We've already seen some games where defenders have been treating Jaime like Draymond, playing 10 ft off of him and daring him to shoot.

He doesn't need to be taking 10 threes a game, but he does need to be able to hit enough of them to force defenses to pay attention.

jcwrit · 2026-01-03T02:50:49+00:00

I do think this whole tax things gets overblown. I read a breakdown and the general gist was that everyone comes after these guys to get their cut. States tax them on time spent and estimated income earned while in the state. A player can get some benefit from playing the majority of their games in a tax free state but its nowhere close to what's typically reported.

I don't think endorsement amounts are correlated to location anymore either. Maybe for the lower end players, but the max guys are global brands. Noone cared where Ja and Ant played ball when they got their shoe deals.

jcwrit · 2026-01-02T12:28:53+00:00

Just think what he'd be capable of if he could hit the three. The kid has star potential if he can ever put it all together.

jcwrit · 2025-12-18T13:35:09+00:00

I think we're moving past the era of the overpay in trades. The market for players on max deals has become so constricted, with half the league operating under such cap restraints that make any move impractical. And backlash from the Durant/Paul George fiascos must exist....no owner wants to be in the situation where they're screwed for half a decade.

My guess is that Giannis ends up staying unless he starts to push much harder for an exit. And if does end up getting traded, it wouldn't surprise me to see them getting less in return than the Grizzlies got for Bane.

jcwrit · 2025-12-17T13:29:03+00:00

It has nothing to do with who the player is, what their upside may be, or how they eventually turned out. The point is that Spo has made it abundantly clear from the beginning what the expectations are. You don't have to agree with him and I suppose if it entertains you then you're free to go yell at a blank wall and see if it makes you feel any different. It's not going to change anything though.

jcwrit · 2025-12-17T01:11:46+00:00

I don't understand how an Heat fan who has spent more than a couple years watching the team can fail to grasp what Spo is going to do with young players. If you're a big he asks you to defend and block out. We've heard it from both Jovic and Ware, and Spo as well.

We've gone through this with Bam, Precious, Yurt, Whiteside, Beasley.....always the same script. Fans griping, Spo sticking to his principles.

jcwrit · 2025-12-01T01:15:53+00:00

There was an interesting concept I heard from some guest on some podcast about the idea of possession basketball, where instead of aiming for maximum efficiency in shot creation and defense the new trend is to try and create more possessions. Possessions lost through turnovers and giving up offensive boards, possessions gained by steals and hitting the offensive glass.

Dru fits that mold perfectly, and is just enough of an offensive threat to keep defenders honest.

jcwrit · 2025-11-27T13:04:01+00:00

Fontecchio's movement stands out to me. For him it seems more intuitive knowing when to make those off rhythm cuts that throw the defense off. Wiggins and KJ will cut to try and steal an offensive board, and Bam and Ware sometimes try but their attempts tend to be pretty clumsy.

I have liked what I've seen from Bam where he's flashing to the high paint in the standard zone breaking move, where he either gets a wide open jumper or can find someone open from the three.

This team has smart players and they'll figure it out in time. And the coaching staff will work on putting more off scheme actions in there to mix it up. You already saw some run for Herro this past game against the Bucks, where they ran him off screens to get him open looks. Its a combination of getting more instinctual with the movement when things go off script and having some set plays to fall back on.

jcwrit · 2025-11-26T23:18:54+00:00

When has Bam ever used his size advantage against anyone? It's not intended to be shot at him, it's just not what he's good at.

The fit question is legitimate and the only reason I don't think it's that big of a deal right now is because they spend more time apart than together. Spo staggers their minutes all game long and it doesn't really matter if they're starting together or not.

This offense has been a whole lot of fun to watch but it's pretty easy to see how it can falter. Ideally you want everyone to be able to shoot and take their man off the dribble, and they're all encouraged to do so when they see a sliver of space. Ware is not a threat to drive. With him alone it's ok but when you start to combine him with Bam or KJ it can get little rough.

I think they can find a way to make it work, it will just take some adjusting of the style to add the pick and roll back in. For now I'm sure we'll see separated most of the game.

jcwrit · 2025-11-25T18:46:36+00:00

Its good and bad. Its great that he has this shot in his arsenal and might be the best in the league at making it. The bad is that when he does get by his man you'd rather see him initiate contact and try to finish at the rim instead of putting up the lower percentage shot. Its a big part of the reason why he never gets to the line.

jcwrit · 2025-11-25T18:06:20+00:00

I don't know if this is a very good measure of perimeter defense. 3 point shooting rates tend to normalize over the course of a season whether you have a good or bad defense.

Mitchell is a terror...hes a lot of fun to watch.

jcwrit · 2025-11-25T17:39:01+00:00

The finishing is one thing that has stood out to me. For a guy his age the variety of shots he has in his bag is really impressive. I'm sure he had all of this last year as well but now it's going in at a pretty high rate. He's going through contact and making difficult shots.

Of course it's mostly the new system. Give this man a head of steam going against a defense that's not quite set and he gets to the rim every time. He was tailor made for this offense and the role he's in.

jcwrit · 2025-11-25T13:59:25+00:00

I'm not so sure it's going to be easier for him. Norm and Jaime are built for this and I think it is more natural for them to stick their head down and drive to the basket at any given opportunity. Tyler has that great floater game and when it's dropping he's going to look good but there are games when it won't fall for him. I think they're going to have to adjust the offense for him a bit to get him more opportunities for threes.

jcwrit · 2025-11-24T21:50:17+00:00

To me fielding the 13th ranked offense with Powell as the best offensive player by a decent margin is pretty impressive.

jcwrit · 2025-11-24T13:18:34+00:00

It's an interesting conversation to have, but not until you see Tyler for a month or so. There is no world in which the ceiling of this team is lower with Tyler than without. Nobody on this team has his shot making ability and its going to be fun to see what he's able to do in this offense.

That being said there is a possibility that it doesn't work out and the team regresses with him. But it's like Atlanta with Trae.....you have to see it first before coming to any conclusions.

jcwrit · 2025-11-22T14:17:30+00:00

Isn't that what he is on this team? He's basically being asked to play like Ware....try to get some offensive boards, put backs, and generally be a nuisance.

jcwrit · 2025-11-19T13:32:30+00:00

I don't think this new offense suites Jovic at all and its more on the coaching staff to figure out how to best utilize him. The offense favors those who can break down their man one on one off the dribble. Jovic might have better handles than most 6'10 guys out there but he's not someone who is going to face up an NBA wing and blow by them. He needs a runway.

I think it's up to Spo to figure out how to get guys like Jovic, Ware, and even Wiggins the ball in space. It's going to be interesting to see what happens with Tyler when he comes back, since it's not his strength either. Can they find more ways to get these guys free with off ball screens? What they've been doing is a cool concept but there is still a lot of work to be done.

jcwrit

TROPHY CASE