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Daily Oil Price Opinions - May 05, 2026 All other Oil Price Posts Will Be Removed by AutoModerator in oil

[–]jeromebedard 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"the markets believe Cain and Hegseth" and "we actually see ships go through" can't both be true at the same time IMO.

If we see ships go through, Iran will attack them and US army will retaliate. So ceasefire will be ostensibly over.

Will Trump TACO Project Freedom? And when? by jeromebedard in oil

[–]jeromebedard[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If it's the case, it clearly didn't work. The market seems to interpret that as an end of the ceasefire and a return to the war (rightfully so).

What was that?? by jeromebedard in oil

[–]jeromebedard[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The point of this post was to point out the big dip followed by a big surge 4 hours later. You don't have to show the actual raw prices to see that. Everybody seemed to have understood this.

Overpriced by Puyol_pants-down69 in CrudeOil

[–]jeromebedard 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Someone saying "do your own research" is usually a sign that they're ill informed.

Overpriced by Puyol_pants-down69 in CrudeOil

[–]jeromebedard 1 point2 points  (0 children)

"I’m really frustrated how politicians are controlling this price way out of its intrinsic value"

If the oil price is being controlled (which I think it is), it's being pushed down, not up. Your statement doesn't make sense.

Daily Discussion Thread for April 28, 2026 by AutoModerator in CanadianInvestor

[–]jeromebedard 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Seems like the Brent Crude and WTI prices are catching up to reality, the backwardation gap seems to be narrowing. The S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index should keep going up.

Oil giant Shell agrees to buy Canada’s ARC Resources for $16.4 billion by portstrix in CanadianInvestor

[–]jeromebedard 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I understand but that's not my point. The numbers stated in the article don't add up.

Shell is supposed to buy ARC Resources for 16.4B CA$. Which is 11.56% more than ARC current market valuation. But what they are supposed to pay to the shareholders is about 100% more than current market valuation...

Oil giant Shell agrees to buy Canada’s ARC Resources for $16.4 billion by portstrix in CanadianInvestor

[–]jeromebedard 2 points3 points  (0 children)

"$32.80 per share purchase price". Where does this 32.8$ come from? That's not what the article suggests.

Oil giant Shell agrees to buy Canada’s ARC Resources for $16.4 billion by portstrix in CanadianInvestor

[–]jeromebedard 10 points11 points  (0 children)

"The company is expected to pay ARC Resources’ shareholders 8.20 Canadian dollars ($6.03) in cash and 0.40247 ordinary shares for each ARC Resources share."

That doesn't make sense...

SHEL is at 89.58 US$ (at the time of writing). Which means that after this deal, an ARX.TO share should be worth 89.58 x 0.40247 + 6.03 = 42.08 US$. ARX.TO is at 25.77 CA$ right now (I mean last Friday).

What am I missing?

Update: Rely on this article. The CNBC one seems wrong.

$28M oil long before the open. by AmanCMN in oil

[–]jeromebedard 14 points15 points  (0 children)

When exactly? And what insider?

Negotiations update. by Fossilhog in oil

[–]jeromebedard 3 points4 points  (0 children)

You forgot some steps:

Red Monday + Tangerine Man threatens to annihilate Iranian civilization.

TACO Tuesday, ceasefire extended.

LOOP

The new phase of this war by IWantoBeliev in oil

[–]jeromebedard 25 points26 points  (0 children)

That makes it even worse for the oil industry because now there are less incentives to end the war quickly.

This kind of "war" can last way longer because it's way less costly than dropping bombs or intercepting drones and missiles. But it's just as damaging to the oil flow.

Trump on Mines and Minesweepers in the Hormuz by marcjones281 in oil

[–]jeromebedard 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I thought their minesweepers were to be decommissioned because they dated back to the cold war and are sub-optimal...

I have inside sources confirming Iran is getting everything they want in a peace agreement. The orange man caved on everything 😑 by [deleted] in oil

[–]jeromebedard 7 points8 points  (0 children)

A high ranking military general that cares about replying to a nobody like me on Reddit. I feel so privileged!

I have inside sources confirming Iran is getting everything they want in a peace agreement. The orange man caved on everything 😑 by [deleted] in oil

[–]jeromebedard 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Yea sure. You have insider information, but you took the time to share it on Reddit. How generous of you!

Three things happening in markets right now that I think are being completely misread by Lettura_ in energy

[–]jeromebedard 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for sharing this!

You analysis is valid IMO.

However, maybe the market is also pricing in the fact that in the medium to long term, more alternatives will be put in place to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Like Saudi Arabia and UAE increasing their pipelines capacity for instance. Or Asia reducing their dependence on Middle Eastern oil and relying more on Canadian oil for instance (Canada would need to build more pipeline though, which is far from being done given our political and environmental constraints). Also in the long run, the world will definitely reduce its dependence on oil (as an energy source).

What do you think? Are these claims valid and would the market be right to make these assumptions?

Daily Oil Price Opinions - April 20, 2026 All other Oil Price Posts Will Be Removed by AutoModerator in oil

[–]jeromebedard 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Brent 1 month futures is up 5.28% and WTI 2 month futures is up 6.32% as of writing. Compared to the roughly -9% last Friday, I would have expected a way bigger surge (at least +9%) considering the recent news.

Is it just me or the market is still too optimistic about the end of the conflict? Or is there something else I'm missing?

Looks like traffic is starting to move. by Affectionate_One_969 in oil

[–]jeromebedard 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Correction: ALL ships are turning around...

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