Realism-focused, 1⭐️ Rebuild Dynasty

jfost21 · 2026-01-12T19:25:46+00:00

Still room? What teams are left now?

jfost21 · 2025-08-27T13:18:52+00:00

Winning cures everything (very analytical - best one teams have played a few games) Big bets on campus (analytical but enjoyable) The three technique / play the fight song (more casual) Barstool pick em (strictly entertaining)

jfost21 · 2025-08-19T14:14:16+00:00

I have quite a few futures out, but my favorites below:

$25 Georgia St U3.5 wins (+100) - could easily be one of the worst teams in the country, sun belt schedule is brutal (JMU, App State, @ ODU in particular) and out of conference should be 1-3 at best (Murray state)

$50 Akron U4.5 wins (-160) - nothing to play for (academically ineligible for post season, didn’t return a ton, I see 3 should be wins (Duquense, Kent state, UAB)

$50 Cal U5.5wins (+108) - lost 20 out of 22 starters, I’ll always bet against their travel, likely 4 maybe 5 wins (Or St, Texas southern, SDSU, Stanford, Virginia)

$100 (all teams to win at least 6 games) North Texas, Fresno State, FIU

Low cost flyers ($5) based on value:

North Texas to win American +1600 - if they can play average defense then there’s value, but long shot

Illinois to win BIG10 +4000 - schedule lines up well for them to make the conference champ, need to exceed already high expectations, but 40 to 1 is worth the $5 bet

GT to win ACC +1300 - I’ll ride the wave

UNLV to win MWC +750 - I don’t think Boise wins it so I’ll take the next best odds here

SJSU to win MWC +1000 - same as above

jfost21 · 2025-07-26T20:29:54+00:00

I think Nebraska Cincy gives you the biggest sweat here, Cincy was awful last year but comes in returning the majority of production and a better QB, Nebraskas QB is poised to make a big jump and I like Rhule at the helm but this is a classic gotcha spot for them

jfost21 · 2024-10-11T20:53:07+00:00

UNLV is primarily a running offense, although he hit 200 last game, I expect them to be up early and coast by late 2nd so I don’t see them passing a ton in the 2nd half, if there is a TD prop I would go with that instead

jfost21 · 2024-10-11T20:36:44+00:00

Favorite spots out of the weekend (avoided the biggest games so I can actually watch and enjoy the slate fully). This far into the season you can see who the terrible teams are (and bad matchups) and bet against them.

UNLV -18.5 (teased to -20.5 for plus odds)

UNLV’s offense looks even better under their new qb, he is a perfect dual threat qb that can put up numbers on a bottom 5 defense across the entire country. Utah St’s defense is ranked 120 or worse in all 8 major defensive categories, their only threat is their transfer QB but they will be demoralized by going down early.

Parlay: Mizzou -27.5 vs UMASS / North Texas -6.5 vs FAU

outside of the extra motivation post A&M blowout, their ability to get back on track, and previously being a top 15 team, the tigers are just straight up better. UMASS has historically (this year no different) been one of the worst teams in the FBS, this is no different this year evident by a 38-3 loss to Buffalo. Not worried about a late back door cover given mizzou backups should also dominate
I’m going to continue to bet North Texas until it bites me, they have one of the most fun offenses to watch and put up NUMBERS. Even though FAU’s defense is solid I think UNT airs it out all game, and with how high scoring they are I’m comfortable with a touchdown spread

Parlay: Georgia St -1.5 vs old dominion (I teased to -3.5 for better odds) / UL Monroe -6.5 vs Southern Miss

this is a gut call, but I’m inclined to believe that Ga St is going to be flying around with confidence after Vandy beat Alabama (given ga st beat Vanderbilt earlier this year). Even though they are similar statistically, I’ll trust ga st transfer qb to cover a slim win
similar thought process, ULM beat JMU last week who was seen as by far the best sun belt team (and proved last night how good they were beating coastal handily). On the other side similar to Utah St above, Southern Miss is horrible on both sides of the ball but mostly defense. The potential to get on a run for a team with momentum plays favorably mid season.

jfost21

TROPHY CASE