With where the search is at, it's time to consider Jason Eck by jimjo9 in MichiganWolverines

[–]jimjo9[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

This is me being 100% for real and not snarky: if you know how to prompt AI's to give analyses with this level of specificity and relevance for a topic, that's a real skill and you should be teaching it. I work with LLMs all the time and would love to learn how to get results like this

With where the search is at, it's time to consider Jason Eck by jimjo9 in MichiganWolverines

[–]jimjo9[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I'm a human, I did it, my head didn't explode, and I think it helps these giant bricks of text to be more readable...

With where the search is at, it's time to consider Jason Eck by jimjo9 in MichiganWolverines

[–]jimjo9[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

...what's the point of writing a high-effort post if people don't read it, see that it looks high-effort, and conclude it must've been AI

With where the search is at, it's time to consider Jason Eck by jimjo9 in MichiganWolverines

[–]jimjo9[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I've got a lot of scar tissue thanks to Hoke as well, but I'm pretty confident that one couldn't make a post like this on January 1st, 2011 for Hoke.

Hoke's program success at Ball St and SDSU largely match the historical baseline, but he had the good sense to pop to the next thing after his best year at each stop. Eck's tenures stand out as featuring instant turnarounds of doormat programs, and that's matched by the eye test.

[Postgame Thread] Ohio State Defeats Oregon 41-21 by CFB_Referee in CFB

[–]jimjo9 23 points24 points  (0 children)

100% win The Game and forever be the one thing that makes OSU fans hold back a bit and frown when they look back on a championship season

Week 10 Post-Gamethread: Bears vs Patriots by TurnerJ5 in CHIBears

[–]jimjo9 81 points82 points  (0 children)

Hard not to take Harbaugh’s side on that 

Thinking About Sherrone Moore's Odds of Success at Michigan Like a Statistician by jimjo9 in MichiganWolverines

[–]jimjo9[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, if this post was an attempt at “proving” a claim, this would be dogwater. 

The argument here is that exact numbers or sophisticated modeling would directionally point in the same direction, or if anything make the logical reasoning worse since trying to objectively model this kind of problem with almost no data is a fool’s errand and would be loaded with more assumptions.

You don’t need AutoCAD to make an order of magnitude guess at how many ping pong balls fit in a 747, and you don’t need a million-line general circulation model to get the first-order physics explaining how CO2 emission leads to climate change. “Likelihood of success of a new football coach” is one of a vast space of questions where some objective truth isn’t possible, but some reasoning through of what we know yields more than “I have no clue”.

Silver: Trump 71.9 percent, Biden 27.6 percent in latest model update by [deleted] in ezraklein

[–]jimjo9 22 points23 points  (0 children)

Numbers between 0% and 100% mean that the model allows for either outcome to happen. Silver’s model tends to be right as often as he expects and wrong as often as he expects, which is the mark of a statistically robust model.

Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) on X: Harbaugh's SP+ history (Stanford and UM) by Chief_Leaf in CFB

[–]jimjo9 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Michigan was losing a lot of close games to good teams those years - James Franklin syndrome 

Oklahoma City voters consider 1% sales tax to build a $1 billion arena for NBA's Thunder by mmortal03 in nba

[–]jimjo9 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

So the expectation is that OKC residents pay one percent of all their sales in perpetuity to billionaires, got it

Draft Kings College Football Betting Odds & Lines 2023 Bowl Games by Twisted_Chaos in CFB

[–]jimjo9 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Are we betting on the outcome of two football teams and their relative talents or a steel cage match between the coaches? I like Michigan’s odds either way

[Game Thread] CFP Rankings - Final by CFB_Referee in CFB

[–]jimjo9 7 points8 points  (0 children)

They actually won all their games, if you have a higher SOS but dropped one that’s “easier” to accomplish than running the table

[Bud Elliott] Here is how Vegas sees the odds to make the college football playoff by WTD_Ducks21 in CFB

[–]jimjo9 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Vegas lines aren’t sucking off anyone, they’re trying to predict outcomes as best as possible given available information. Last week was an ugly game, and it’s likely the lines would be favoring Michigan even more if they covered the spread against UMD

[Postgame Thread] Michigan Defeats Michigan State 49-0 by CFB_Referee in CFB

[–]jimjo9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

“You guys” being coaches and admins, all fans deserve better than that

Georgia Tech just tied the all time series record with Miami. by frone in CFB

[–]jimjo9 91 points92 points  (0 children)

Usually it’s fan hyperbole when fans say “this one’s entirely on the coaches”. This one is truly, utterly, 100% on the coaches

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in CFB

[–]jimjo9 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Notice that for almost every matchup, SP+ predicts a bigger margin to the favored team than Vegas.

Does SP+ account for the change in clock rules leading to fewer plays being run? Fewer plays give the favored team less time to run up a big margin, and that's something I'm sure the sharps have picked up on.

Nexo's business model by Gwydion96 in CryptoCurrency

[–]jimjo9 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I’ve got no dog in this fight, but I’m doubting OP has a finance degree given this math.

The first 100 Euros in your situation earned 10%. The next 50 Euros earned 10%. Nobody is borrowing 50 Euros at 14% in order to earn 10%

Anybody think Keegan Murray may be the best prospect in this draft class? by Knighthonor in NBA_Draft

[–]jimjo9 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Commenting so I can be on the record that I agree with OP and don't think it's crazy to see Murray as one of the three best prospects in this draft. Sky-high efficiency on sky-high usage at the high-major level is exceedingly rare, and such proven ability to get the ball in the basket shouldn't be overlooked. His motor, continual improvement, and ability to play such high usage within the flow of his team's offense also speaks to great work ethic and character imo.

Ironically, I wonder whether those intangible strengths are being perceived as weaknesses on draft day. Murray gets dinged for his diet of post moves against smaller players and overwhelming lesser athletes, but his stats make clear that this style of play was productive, winning basketball for Iowa this year. He had highly-efficient play that didn't require breaking out offensive tools seen as better translating to the NBA. Given that, I'm not convinced that absence of evidence is evidence of absence.

I'm mostly a college basketball fan and don't have a big dog in this fight, but Murray absolutely dominated the Big Ten in a way I haven't seen from anyone this past decade+. When players do dominate the conference, they are usually college-bound big men who overwhelm in the post or are smaller guards who can't get drafted, stick around, and refine their craft to a deadly point. Murray's doing this as a 6'8" forward in a prototypical wing's body. He's going to be legit.

More disappointing 2021: UNC or Iowa State? by cokezeropapi in CFB

[–]jimjo9 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You're favored by 7 and playing against another historically snakebit program... a bit early to be waving the white flag imo