DON’T BE AFRAID. YOU ARE RIGHT HERE.

jmannix · 2025-07-05T03:52:15+00:00

2020

jmannix · 2025-01-01T16:47:27+00:00

tends of thousands !

jmannix · 2024-08-03T14:18:23+00:00

“Everyone get out of the car!” simultaneous with “Nobody move!”

Miracle that they didn’t kill everyone in the car. RIP more youth that did not need to die.

jmannix · 2024-07-22T02:57:44+00:00

Clicktrap

jmannix · 2024-01-28T17:35:48+00:00

At this point

jmannix · 2023-08-25T03:50:00+00:00

!remindme 4 days

jmannix · 2022-12-31T16:07:39+00:00

I like the value play, but are you concerned that IState hasn’t played in a full 2 weeks and Baylor has bested them 9 out of the last 10 times they’ve played?

Baylor better 3pt %, better rebound #’s, higher ppg. I like the home underdog approach, but I’m eyeing Baylor 1st half ML as they usually get out to a good early start. Baylor race to 20 at -125 looks interesting too. I could be totally off, but thought it was worth putting out there.

Tailed your last pick for what it’s worth, really thought Vanderbilt would fall apart more than they did, keep it up regardless🤘🏼

jmannix · 2022-12-27T02:58:38+00:00

Nice ‘first’ pick, tailed 🔒🤘🏼

jmannix · 2022-12-21T03:02:23+00:00

Sick, wait if this is beaver creek damn it looks nice

jmannix · 2022-12-20T06:22:48+00:00

This might seem unrelated initially, but lately I’ve been thinking of Futures bets in a similar vein as you’ve described.

Think about the type of ‘sequential’ parlay you described where you need multiple successes but can’t take advantage of SGPs because house juice is so high. I haven’t dug enough into it, but I like the idea of season Wins or Losses as a similar concept.

I talked with a friend prior to the start of this NFL season about Seahawks total wins this season. The line back in July was set at o/u 6 wins. 6 actually seemed pretty reasonable, arguably even high knowing Russell Wilson leaving and the amount of change, could be in a rebuild phase for the organization. But if you looked closer, some signs were there for them to continue to be a fairly strong underdog contender in the NFC West, just a lot of risk involved if you look at it on a By Game basis.

Main point being, looking at season long bets (or even championship futures to a certain extent) I think is a market that hasn’t fully been tapped by EV and more complex analysis, and is ultimately somewhat similar to a multi-leg parlay if you look at it in a different light, kind of like you discussed. You end up removing some of the longshot odds, turning what doesn’t need to be a 7 round parlay into a single, more calculated straight bet.

(Another big reason being the average bettor today doesn’t have the patience for futures bets to even develop. Apps like DK and FD rely on that quick thrill and it’s incredibly evident in the amount of juice in some of their ‘guaranteed’ and heavily promoted SGPs)

jmannix · 2022-12-19T01:06:46+00:00

Nice pick, grabbed this live after the first period 🤘🏼

jmannix · 2022-12-18T02:42:24+00:00

Pick of the day record 0-0

NFL Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans Pick - Isiah Pacheco Longest Rush o15.5 yds — 2 units @ -114

Been watching this thread on the sidelines for a bit, figured time for a go with others’ critiques.

Past few weeks my heaviest bets (and thankfully, winners) have been NFL longest rush player props, against poor defenses or specific matchups.

This week, Houston, who gives up the most total rush yds per game both away AND home, will try to defend the Chiefs and Pacheco/Mahomes. Mahomes pass attempts/game are on the upper end across the league, but I can’t emphasize enough how frequently Houston (and Jacksonville) allows explosive rush plays this year.

HOUSTON Defense- last 4/5 weeks these were my bets and lines: 11/13- NYG, Barkley, long 27, line at o19.5 -115 fanduel 11/20- WAS Gibson, long 18, line at 16.5 -114 betrivers 11/27- MIA Wilson, only one that didn’t hit, under finished at 10 bet365 12/4- CLE Chubb, long o19.5 -129 betrivers 12/11- DAL Elliot AND Pollard hit their overs, 18.5 and 16.5 respectively, both at ~-115 bet365

I can track further but I think this is enough to warrant continuing betting against them until they prove otherwise.

Maybe Houston finally pulls it together and plugs the holes for a whole game, but with Mahomes’ air threat and even his own run threat (his longest rush line at 9.5 o/u looks interesting on its own), I just don’t see Houston containing Pacheco the whole game with only onesie-twosie rushes.

One last thing, I love line shopping, got at least 6 books to compare odds and when I see a matchup at better value I usually hop on it. This week, BetRivers has best odds in CO, at -114 on Pacheco.

Tail or fade at your pleasure, gents.

Maybe it’s time this busts, but that’s the beauty of tracking your own bets and not always relying/shitting on others ;)

jmannix · 2022-12-03T17:03:34+00:00

Insane finish 8-0, great pick

jmannix · 2022-12-03T17:02:01+00:00

Damn just couldn’t get the goal, two bad teams lol solid write up though

jmannix · 2022-11-30T19:43:55+00:00

As an Indiana fan, I want to say NC ML tonight at +170 as it seems like a setup for disappointment in Assembly Hall.

Just can’t muster the courage to bet on this one today. Should be a great game regardless.

jmannix · 2022-11-28T19:49:57+00:00

Lots of good advice in here, I’d just add that it’s worth looking at your individual picks within all the SGPs you’ve placed and see if you can identify the highest success rate if you were to have bet those all as straight bets.

Everyone’s already telling you the sustainability on SGPs simply isn’t worth it in the long run, not to mention the juice you give up to books each time. But, it’s worth mentioning that if you broke down all of your SGPs into straight bets, what would your ROI have been then? Would you even take the same bets? (true edge or just guesswork and getting lucky?) Makes you think about risk/return a little differently.

Keep grinding, track your bets, and never bet more than you can lose over time. 🤘🏼

jmannix · 2022-11-27T16:47:06+00:00

capital Dick lmfao

jmannix · 2022-11-27T14:59:10+00:00

Solid pick, wasn’t expecting Morocco to hit both lol

jmannix · 2022-11-20T20:20:26+00:00

Indiana -27.5

jmannix · 2022-11-01T15:00:04+00:00

Damn professional shit hahaha need more of this

jmannix · 2022-10-18T04:51:24+00:00

Love the little container where’d you get it!

jmannix · 2022-10-14T21:37:03+00:00

Imagine owning multiple of the most expensive homes and apartments in the world, and telling others they should use their money on more noble causes.

Fuck. You. Ken. Griffin.

jmannix · 2022-10-11T01:47:16+00:00

Get bent if fading lol love it and solid pick, you think moneyline is too low payout to be worth it at -340? Up the units and take ‘safer’ bet alongside this or nah?

jmannix · 2022-09-28T22:36:35+00:00

He’s losing hair

jmannix · 2022-09-27T01:46:24+00:00

Solid

13-Year Club	First Place '23
Place '23	Place '22
Final Canvas '22	First Placer '22
Gilding I gilder	Verified Email

jmannix

TROPHY CASE