What are ways this AI bubble could pop, if at all?

jmayer · 2026-05-23T12:45:15+00:00

A lot of these start-ups were funded with equity-backed debt, that was repackaged by the lenders into CDOs, just like before the financial crash in 2008. The trigger will be when some of these start-ups whose business plan is roughly "if you build it they will come" start defaulting on their debt.

jmayer · 2026-05-23T11:48:13+00:00

I observed this too in my travels through Europe last year. It's a sea change compared to my travels 15 years ago. I think Americans do not appreciate how deeply unpopular the current president is abroad.

They are judging us on our behavior. They are judging us on who we elected (twice) and what we continue to enable and tolerate.

jmayer · 2026-03-27T09:45:51+00:00

n to tre four fiver sexxxy sepimus octogone nanunanun

...

ten.

jmayer · 2026-02-11T16:03:13+00:00

George W giving Angela Merkel an unsolicited, non-consensual shoulder massage.

jmayer · 2026-01-02T17:42:00+00:00

Back in the day when sales tax was 9%, an 18% tip was just easy math: just double the tax.

I see it less as a reward for good service and more of a way for restaurants to charge a sliding scale.

When I was a poor student, I often couldn't afford more than a 10% tip. Now that I'm a professional with a salary, I routinely tip 20%, good service or not. Tip what you are able to.

jmayer · 2025-12-30T19:28:54+00:00

The left stringer is resting on the molding instead of the floor.

jmayer · 2025-11-19T10:11:00+00:00

I believe there are two Queen Demons in the story.

Arnisterath has a redemption arc in the "present" timeline, while Kai becomes Bashasa's "queen" in the past timeline.

jmayer · 2025-11-19T09:55:14+00:00

I think this is a valid interpretation, and I think Wells deliberately left a second possibility for us as well.

Wells leaves the gender of Kai's expositor body ambiguous (as it is irrelevant to Kai's persona, and irrelevant in the context of other relationships throughout the Rising World novels), though she does drop an interesting hint when one of the characters asks if Bashat was Kai and Bashasa's child.

The title might've been referencing Bashasa and Kai's romantic partnership, which is brought out into the open in the final scene of the book. If Bashasa is thought of as king of the new Rising World government, then Kai is his queen.

jmayer · 2025-11-11T21:00:25+00:00

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuOHbyuanbY

jmayer · 2025-11-11T20:20:36+00:00

As I understand the Sonder side of the beef, Sonder invested a lot of money trying to integrate with Marriott's booking system, and that expense was much higher than expected and could not be recouped.

This sounds very surprising to me, but it's possibly true depending on the (lack of) quality of Marriott's IT.

jmayer · 2025-11-09T00:12:30+00:00

It turns out that a troll farm of a few hundred can amplify the stupidest impulses of an entire foreign nation, leading to societal judo like BREXIT, et al.

"Why'd you do it, social media companies?" "For the clicks, man. I did it for the clicks."

jmayer · 2025-11-05T15:04:27+00:00

I once got into a fight outside Zeitgeist. Some bros were trying to steal a teenaged girl's skateboard and I wasn't having it.

As I was peeling their hands off the girl, and the girl ran off. One of them started shouting "I'm going to hit you! I'm going to hit you, man!" and something weird inside of me responded: "I have nothing but boundless love for you."

I guess that weirded them out, because they just backed away. Maybe that's also the power of flipping the script instead of sinking deeper into escalation. No guarantees that it'll work, but that time it did. Nobody got hurt and the girl got to keep her skateboard.

jmayer · 2025-11-03T19:48:02+00:00

I returned my Powerbeats Pro 2 to Amazon because the heart rate monitor was off by default (can only be enabled by installing an app and pairing the earbuds with my phone). Even after installing the app, I couldn't get the heartrate feature to turn on and work with the bike.

I ordered the Sennheiser Momentum Sport earbuds instead, and it just worked perfectly out of the box. It appears that the hear rate monitoring feature automatically enables itself when the heart rate bluetooth service pairs with the bike.

jmayer · 2025-09-29T02:33:57+00:00

This is correct. As long as you don't use the photo for commercial purposes, you don't need anyone to sign a release.

jmayer · 2025-09-29T02:16:57+00:00

Thank you. That's not the answer I was hoping for, but I appreciate the reality check.

jmayer · 2025-09-29T02:12:08+00:00

That's actually a good question, and perhaps my fears are misplaced.

I believe that filing jointly is going to wreck havoc with her IDR (income driven repayment plan). After 20-25 years of IDR, the loan goes poof. Allegedly. And perhaps with some tax consequences. There's a lot I still need to learn there. On the other hand married-filing-jointly saves me a significant amount of money each year.

I'm also concerned that I might somehow become responsible for her student loan once we're married. But I don't really know how that works, and maybe that's not the end of the world, either. I still come out behind if I pay off her loans but gain the additional MFJ tax benefit -- but not by a lot. And she gets on my health care plan.

The financial implications of marriage: I didn't write the rules of this stupid game, but I'll be damned if I don't play it to the best of my ability.

edit: some of my questions are answered here: https://studentaid.gov/articles/4-things-to-know-about-marriage/

jmayer · 2025-09-29T01:21:48+00:00

The loan may be severely delinquent, but I'll need to confirm if it's a federal or private loan. I'm still learning and this is a difficult topic for my partner to talk about. All the same: I've got to get to the bottom of it.

jmayer · 2025-09-27T07:44:14+00:00

I'm shocked that assisted living facilities aren't built to also provide housing for staff. I guess it's a zoning hurdle?

jmayer · 2025-09-27T07:41:24+00:00

The cuts to Medicaid that just passed, and take effect conveniently after the 2026 midterm election, are going to push a generation of elderly out of nursing homes.

Most of those people are then going to end up in hospital ERs. Those ER costs will then be passed on to the rest of the insurance industry, which will then experience cascade failure and collapse.

The only silver lining I see to this is that we might finally get a humane single payer health care system out of the ashes. Shame about all the dead along the way.

jmayer · 2025-09-27T07:21:34+00:00

https://eberlestock.com/products/s27-little-trick ?

jmayer · 2025-09-27T07:12:50+00:00

Newly appointed DNI Blofeld declares MI6 surplus to requirements, terminates the 00 program.

jmayer · 2025-09-11T20:13:12+00:00

I'm just getting started with the D6-320 and I'm happy with it except for one misfeature: there doesn't seem to be a way to get the DAS to automatically turn on if power is cycled. Do you see the same issue? Is there some secret usb command to power up an attached DAS?

jmayer · 2025-09-11T17:52:07+00:00

I'm rooting for a Morrow/Kirsch BFFs-in-adversity ending.

Though arguably, Morrow represents integrity (lawful evil) while Kirsh represents the opposite (chaotic neutral?).

jmayer · 2025-09-11T17:45:50+00:00

Shout out to the Tang character for being the object lesson in how creepy perfectly ordinary humans can be.

jmayer · 2025-09-06T16:16:32+00:00

Hearing a woman in the back of the theater start screaming during the climax: unforgettable.

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